TD #17 (Phillipe)

[vicocala]

Another Tropical Depression has formed east of the Leeward Islands, another storm could also be developing near the Turks and Caicos Islands which would have a near immediate impact on the Bahamas.

 

Estimated track cone for TD #17 is as follows:

 

[Sage]

Thanks Vicocala. This has sure been one busy season, the likes of which I hope we never have to see again. I heard someone even say that there may be another TD forming near San Juan. :eek:

[Oceanwench]

Our weather guy said this a.m. there were two TDs out there ... but both projected to go south of us.

Looks like #17 isn't following that path. :eek:

[vicocala]

Oceanwench,

 

First off, I misspelled Philippe. :o Second I am hopefull with as much northward motion this one is expected to make it will stay away from the U. S. but it is way to early to tell.

 

The second storm is the one I mentioned around the Turks, it continues to bear watching although it is not a tropical depression yet.

[vicocala]

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Sat Sep 17 2005

 

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Found A Broad And

Elongated Circulation Center On The Northeast Side Of The Strong

Convection Of Tropical Depression Seventeen...with The Reported

Position Somewhat To The North Of The Previous Advisory Position.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb And The Maximum

Flight-level Winds At 1500 Ft So Far Are 40 Kt. This Suggests That

The Depression Is Not Quite A Tropical Storm...but It Should Reach

That Status Sometime Tonight.

 

The Initial Motion Is A Still Somewhat Uncertain 310/8. Steering

Currents Remain Unusually Weak For That Part Of The Atlantic...and

The Cyclone Is Expected To Move Rather Slowly Northwestward Around

The Southwest Side Of A Weak Mid-level Ridge For The Next 3 Days...

With Perhaps A More Northward Motion After Three Days Towards A

Weakness In The Ridge. The Large-scale Models Continue To Forecast

The System To Pass East Of The Lesser Antilles...although Most Of

Them Still Do Not Not Initialize The System Very Well. The

Forecast Track Is Shifted Somewhat To The North Of The Previous

Track Based On The Initial Position...and Lies Along The Left Side

Of The Envelope Of Model Guidance.

 

The Cyclone Is Forecast To Be Over 30c Water For The Next 5 Days And

The Shear Is Forecast To Be Light To Perhaps Moderate. Thus...

Steady Strengthening Should Occur. The Ships Model Has A Little

Less Intensification Than 6 Hr Ago As It Is Forecasting A Little

More Shear. However...the Gfdl Continues To Show Rapid

Intensification To A Major Hurricane. The Intensity Forecast

Brings The Depression To Hurricane Strength In 48 Hr And To 95 Kt

By 120 Hr...in Between Ships And The Gfdl.

 

The Current Forecast Track Does Not Immediately Require Watches Or

Warnings. Watches Or Warnings May Be Required For Portions Of The

Lesser Antilles Later Tonight Or Sunday.

 

Forecaster Beven

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 3

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Sat Sep 17 2005

 

Conventional And Mcirowave Satellite Imagery Suggest Tropical Storm

Philippe Has Moved Very Little To The North-northwest During The

Past 6 Hours. A 17/2154z Quikscat Overpass Showed The Surface

Center West Of 55w Longitude...whereas The Recon Position Near That

Time Indicated A Circulation Center East Of 55w. My Feeling Is That

The Recon Center Was A Small Circulation Rotating Northward Up The

East Side Of The Larger Low-level Center...and That The Two Centers

Have Now Consolidated Near 55w. A Burst Of Deep Convection Has

Developed Over And South Of The Alleged Low-level Center...and

Satellite Intensity Estimates Are 45 Kt From Tafb...35 Kt From

Sab...and 25 Kt From Afwa. Due To The Uncertainty In The Exact

Location Of The Center...the Initial Intensity Is An Average Of The

Various Intensity Estimates. A Recon Aircraft Will Be Investigating

Philippe Around 06z.

 

The Initial Motion Is An Uncertain 335/4. Steering Currents Are

Unusually Weak For This Region Of The Atlantic...and Philippe Is

Expected To Move Slowly Northwestward Around The Southwestern

Periphery Of A Weak Mid-level Ridge Throughout The Forecast Period.

By The End Of The Period...the Ridge Is Forecast To Strengthen To

The North Of The Cyclone...and That May Result In A More

West-northwestward Motion Than What Is Indicated By The Official

Forecast. The Nhc Model Guidance Is Rather Divergent...but Is In

General Agreement On The Forecast Motion And The Forecast Track Is

Close To The Model Consensus.

 

Philippe Is Forecast To Remain Over 30c And Warmer Ssts For The Next

5 Days...and The Vertical Shear Is Expected To Be Less Than 15 Kt.

Therefore...steady Strengthening Is Forecast Similar To The

Previous Advisory And The Latest Ships Model Output.

 

Based On The More Eastward Shift In The Forecast Track...watches Or

Warnings Are Not Anticipated At This Time For Any Portion Of The

Lesser Antiles. However...with Steering Currents Being Rather Weak

And Ill-defined...any Westward Shift Could Require Watches Or

Warnings At Some Point In The Forecast Period.

 

Forecaster Stewart

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 18/0300z 14.1n 55.2w 35 Kt

12hr Vt 18/1200z 14.9n 55.7w 40 Kt

24hr Vt 19/0000z 15.8n 56.4w 50 Kt

36hr Vt 19/1200z 17.0n 57.3w 60 Kt

48hr Vt 20/0000z 18.1n 58.3w 65 Kt

72hr Vt 21/0000z 20.6n 59.9w 75 Kt

96hr Vt 22/0000z 23.0n 61.0w 85 Kt

120hr Vt 23/0000z 25.0n 62.0w 95 Kt

 

$$

[Sage]

I see that things really got busy overnight. I sure wish the season would wind down soon. Thanks once again Vic.

[Krazy Kruizers]

I knew about Phillipe(?) last night - was surprised to hear that another TD was forming this morning.

[KAJOKG]

I live on the East Coast of South FL....our local meteorologist reported on the storm this morning. He said it will most likely become a tropical storm some time today, but he didn't think it will effect us. He seems to think it will continue northward. Hope he's right, but these storms are very, very fickle (i.e. Ophelia which went every which way), so no one can tell for certain. It bears watching as does TD #18.

[vicocala]

Yeah, right now the primary concern could be Bermuda, lets hope it recurves and ends up just being a course changer for shipping. Here is the latest:

 

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

 

CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED SOME MORE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL

CENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN

SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT... DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE

INCREASED TO 3.0...SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT.

CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SINCE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING

OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST

TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG

ABOUT 25N IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AND PROVIDE A

SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING

PHILIPPE TO 85 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL IN

FORECASTING ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

 

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/6 IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK...PERHAPS DUE TO THE CENTER BEING DRAWN IN THAT

DIRECTION BY THE LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS

MORNING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST

AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH TAKES THE

DEVELOPING STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD

THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE

CELLS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

 

ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES

OR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS

SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.

 

FORECASTER KNABB

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 6

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Sun Sep 18 2005

 

A Deep Burst Of Convection With Cloud Tops Colder Than -80c Has

Developed Very Near The Circulation During The Past Couple Of

Hours. Dvorak T Numbers Are Still Holding At T3.0/ 45 Kt...but The

Intensity Could Be A Little Higher. The Upper-level Outflow

Pattern Is Good In All Quadrants...except Slightly Restricted To

The Northwest.

 

The Initial Motion Is 340/07. There Is No Significant Change To The

Previous Forecast Track Or Reasoning. Philippe Is Expected Move

Slowly North-northwestward Around The Western Periphery Of An

Unseasonably Weak Subtropical Ridge Located Over The Central

Atlantic Throughout The Entire Forecast Period. The Nhc Model

Guidance Is In Strong Agreement And On This Scenario... With The

Only Difference Being The Forward Speed. The Nogaps Model Is The

Fastest And The Gfs Is The Slowest. The Official Track Is Near The

Nhc Model Consensus.

 

Upper-level Ridging Is Forecast To Build Across Philippe Producing A

Favorable Outflow Pattern And Producing Low Vertical Shear. With

The Cyclone Moving Over 30c Ssts Throughout The Period...at Least

Some Modest Strengthening Seems To Be In Order.

 

It Now Appears That Philippe Will Not Require The Issuance Of Any

Watches Or Warning For The Lesser Antilles.

 

Forecaster Stewart/knabb

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 18/2100z 15.9n 55.9w 45 Kt

12hr Vt 19/0600z 16.7n 56.3w 55 Kt

24hr Vt 19/1800z 17.8n 57.3w 65 Kt

36hr Vt 20/0600z 18.9n 58.2w 70 Kt

48hr Vt 20/1800z 20.1n 58.7w 75 Kt

72hr Vt 21/1800z 23.0n 59.5w 85 Kt

96hr Vt 22/1800z 25.5n 60.5w 90 Kt

120hr Vt 23/1800z 28.5n 61.5w 95 Kt

 

$$

[Vic The Parrot]

Is the 5-day forecast coming up soon?

 

 

 

I made plans to go skiing next weekend.

 

 

 

 

:D

[vicocala]

Hurricane Philippe Discussion Number 7

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Sun Sep 18 2005

 

Air Force Hurricane Hunters Measured A Peak 850 Mb Flight-level Wind

Of 83 Kt In The Northeast Eyewall. The Plane Subsequently Climbed

To 700 Mb Because Of Turbulence In The Strong Convection That Is

Typical Of Intensifying Tropical Cyclones. The Hurricane Hunters

Also Measured A Surface Pressure Of 988 Mb In The Eye By

Dropwindsonde. The Drop Had Surface Winds Of 17 Kt...so The

Minimum Pressure Is Estimated To Be Just Slightly Lower. Using The

80 Per Cent Factor To Esimate Surface Winds From 850 Mb...current

Intensity Is Estimated To Be 65 Kt. Philippe Is Upgraded To A

Hurricane...the Eighth Of The Season...on This Advisory.

Upper-level Outflow Appears Strong Over All But The Northwest

Quadrant Of The Hurricane. Since The Environment Seems Favorable

For Further Intensification...the Official Forecast Calls For A

Continued Increase In Strength For The Next Few Days. Later In The

Period...the Intensity Is Expected To Level Off As Philippe

Encounters Somewhat Stronger Westerlies North Of About 23n.

 

Based On The Latest Recon Fixes...the Track Is Adjusted Slightly To

The East Of The Previous One. Initial Motion Estimate Is 345/7...

Although The Shorter-term Movement Has Been Mainly Northward.

Global Model Guidance Shows A Persistent Weakness In The

Subtropical Ridge Along 60w. This Feature Is Likely To Cause The

Hurricane To Move On A North-northwestward To Northward Path Over

The Next Several Days. The Official Track Forecast Is To The Right

Of The Previous One...and Near The Western Edge Of The Dynamical

Guidance Suite.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 19/0300z 16.5n 55.9w 65 Kt

12hr Vt 19/1200z 17.5n 56.6w 70 Kt

24hr Vt 20/0000z 18.6n 57.5w 75 Kt

36hr Vt 20/1200z 19.6n 58.3w 80 Kt

48hr Vt 21/0000z 20.8n 58.8w 85 Kt

72hr Vt 22/0000z 23.0n 59.5w 90 Kt

96hr Vt 23/0000z 26.0n 60.5w 95 Kt

120hr Vt 24/0000z 29.0n 60.5w 95 Kt

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

Hurricane Philippe Discussion Number 9

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Mon Sep 19 2005

 

Early Morning Visible Satellite Imagery Revealed A Somewhat Ragged

Hurricane With The Center Difficult To Locate. An 1156 Utc Ssmi

Pass Was Very Helpful In Determining That The Center Was Located

Just West Of The Deep Convection. However...a New Convective Burst

Has Recently Developed Over Or Just West Of The Center. Dvorak

Intensity Estimates Are A Consensous 65 Kt From All Agencies And

The Initial Intensity Will Remain 65 Kt For This Advisory.

 

Based On The Ssmi Microwave Data...the Initial Motion Is

Estimated To Be 345/6 Kt. Global Models Continue To Track The

Cyclone Northward Into A Weakness In The Subtropical Ridge Along

60w. The Official Forecast Is Very Close To The Previous

Forecast...but Is A Little Faster At 96 And 120 Hours...since

The Model Consensus Begins To Accelerate Philippe To The North

Then North-northeast Near The End Of The Forecast.

 

Due To The Ragged Satellite Appearance And Moderate Westerly Shear

Currently Over The Cyclone...the Intensity Forecast Is A Little

Less Aggressive During The First 24-36 Hours. The Shear Is

Expected To Lessen Between 36-72 Hours Which Should Allow Philippe

To Strengthen Further. The Official Intensity Forecast Follows

The Ships Guidance Closely.

 

Forecaster Brown/stewart

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 19/1500z 17.4n 56.3w 65 Kt

12hr Vt 20/0000z 18.1n 56.7w 65 Kt

24hr Vt 20/1200z 19.2n 57.4w 70 Kt

36hr Vt 21/0000z 20.2n 58.0w 75 Kt

48hr Vt 21/1200z 21.7n 58.7w 80 Kt

72hr Vt 22/1200z 24.5n 59.5w 90 Kt

96hr Vt 23/1200z 27.5n 60.0w 90 Kt

120hr Vt 24/1200z 31.5n 59.5w 90 Kt

 

$$

[vicocala]

Hurricane Philippe Discussion Number 11

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Mon Sep 19 2005

 

Although Philippe Has Not Become Much Better Organized On Satellite

Images And Banding Features Are Not Well Defined...based On The

Dvorak Technique Using The Embedded Center Pattern...the Hurricane

Has Strengthened A Bit. Initial Intensity Estimate Is Set At 70

Kt. Some Vertical Shear Is Being Imparted On The Hurricane Due To A

Swath Of Upper-level Westerlies Extending From The Outflow Of

Rita...near And North Of 20n. However The Ships Guidance Indicates

That This Shear Will Not Be Enough To Prevent Some Additional Slow

Strengthening...and This Is Reflected In The Official Intensity

Forecast.

 

Initial Motion Continues Slowly Toward The North-northwest...330/5.

Track Forecast Reasoning Is About The Same As Before. For The Next

Several Days...philippe Is Expected To Continue Moving North-

Northwestward Into A Weakness In The Subtropical Ridge Near 60w.

By The End Of The Forecast Period...the Hurricane Is Likely To

Accelerate Northeastward In Response To A Strong Mid-tropospheric

Trough That Is Forecast To Dig Southward From The Canadian

Maritimes. The Official Track Forecast Is Close To The Dynamical

Track Model Consensus...and Also Similar To The Fsu Superensemble.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 20/0300z 18.3n 56.8w 70 Kt

12hr Vt 20/1200z 19.2n 57.1w 70 Kt

24hr Vt 21/0000z 20.5n 57.5w 75 Kt

36hr Vt 21/1200z 22.3n 58.0w 80 Kt

48hr Vt 22/0000z 24.2n 58.5w 85 Kt

72hr Vt 23/0000z 28.5n 59.5w 85 Kt

96hr Vt 24/0000z 33.0n 59.0w 80 Kt

120hr Vt 25/0000z 37.0n 53.0w 70 Kt

 

 

$$