Atlantic/96L/Leeward Islands

[PelicanBill]

96L is the disturbance coming in from the Cape Verde Islands and is forecast 70% likely to become a tropical depression.  As you can see from the spaghetti model run it is far too early to say where it's going but the Leeward Islands are most likely. (NE part of the island chain, where you find Dominica up to St. Maarten then west to the British and US Virgin Islands.)  A lot of uncertainty still. And no way to know how strong it might become. it looks like 5 days until these islands - so arrival about Tuesday-Wednesday seems possible unless speed changes.  Which it could.   Travelers going to that area next week, or a couple days later to San Juan, Dominican Republic, andLabadee should all be watching this.

 

 

 

[PelicanBill]

To demonstrate how difficult forecasting can be this early, here is another model that shows most predicted paths passing well away from all the islands and getting picked up out to the ocean. (With Bermuda in the possible path.)

 

[TripleQ]

I'm on RCL Harmony of the Seas Aug 4-11.  Hopefully those tracks keep moving to the east!

 

Aug 5 CocoCay (Bahamas)

Aug 7 St. Thomas

Aug 8 St. Maarten

 

Thanks for the updates.

[npb1894]

Adventure of the Seas

Bayonne, NJ 8/9

Bermuda 8/11

Nassau 8/13

CoCo Cay 8/14

Bayonne, NJ 8/17

Please keep us updated!

Thanks

[SeaportMike]

NCL Sun

 

Port Canaveral 8/9

Great Stirrup Cay 8/10

Nassau 8/11

Port Canaveral 8/12 

[Greyhound Crazy]

6 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

To demonstrate how difficult forecasting can be this early, here is another model that shows most predicted paths passing well away from all the islands and getting picked up out to the ocean. (With Bermuda in the possible path.)

 

I like this one. Let's go with this one. (Fingers crossed.)

[JoeTec]

Escape Bermuda 8/4 - 8/11 in Bermuda 7, 8 & 9

[PelicanBill]

Thanks for posting the itineraries.  Will study this weekend.

 

The good news is chance to develop was reduced to 40%  Conditions are becoming less favorable.

[PelicanBill]

So we are looking at tropical storm as the worst case in the forecast at this point. The models all have a NW motion with a change to the W and then NW again, so the timing of all these drives whether it affects the Leewards, Ts&Cs, Bahamas and Bermuda.  The only thing consistent is the models all see it being picked up by westerlies well before reaching anywhere on the mainland coast.

 

For @JoeTec I see Escape getting in and out of Bermuda before this system could come that way, if it does.

 

For @SeaportMike I see it affecting the Bahamas around the 8-9-10th if at all, and less likely than Bermuda actually.  I think your cruise could rearrange a port to avoid the worse if it came to that but that is super speculative.  We'll get a better idea by Sunday I think.

 

It is just as likely this will fizzle out!

 

Oh and @Greyhound Crazy I belong to your club.  My Greyhound mix is my baby! She loves car rides with me and takes a crazy run or two in the backyard every day but is lazy in every other respect! Lays in my lap a lot!

 

[JoeTec]

@Pelican Bill  Thank you so much!!! I hope you are right!! Thank you for all the updates you do 

[PelicanBill]

Aaaand just like that it has fizzled out.  Maybe some passing showers in the Bahamas but should not be a bother now!