Delta - Atlantic - Oct 5

[PelicanBill]

And here is tropical storm Delta, heading toward the Gulf coast to arrive sometime Friday.  5 days out gives plenty of time for changes in path and strength.

Pay attention to that turn. That puts a LOT of uncertainty on the area to get the highest impact.  And let's hope it moves along and does not slow down in the curve which does often happen.

 

The Cayman Islands getting tropical storm impact now.

 

[PelicanBill]

Hurricane hunters found rapid intensification and forecast now to be a cat 3 (major) hurricane as it passes Cozumel and could make a direct hit to Cancun. Not good and short notice for them.

Then expected to fall back to cat 2, slow as it turns.  Serious storm.

[PelicanBill]

Delta has undergone rapid intensification and is expected to be a dangerous Cat 3 storm as it hits Cancun and Cozumel. Will take a closer look at this in a moment.  It should then fall back to Cat 2 for Gulf landfall Friday evening - but serious effects will begin much earlier in the day Friday.

[PelicanBill]

This is a terrible worst case scenario for Cancun. The City less than 10 miles from center on the dirty side of the storm (wind+forward motion=hardest hit) with the Costa Maya and Cozumel areas popular with tourists also expected to get serious impact.

[PelicanBill]

Delta is going to be Category 4 at Cancun landfall starting late tonight, at around 140mph winds.  Awful.

 

[geocruiser]

I can't believe it went up to a Cat. 4!!!!!  This is awful for all who are in its path.

 

Bill, thanks for keeping us informed.

 

Maria

[PelicanBill]

13 minutes ago, geocruiser said:

I can't believe it went up to a Cat. 4!!!!!  This is awful for all who are in its path.

 

Bill, thanks for keeping us informed.

 

Maria

You're welcome and thanks for the appreciation.

I have 3 webcams up for Cancun and the coast now. Watching hotels pack everything up, take down canopies, take boats away.  Some analysts are saying that conditions are almost too perfect for storm intensification and they would not be surprised at a "maximum" storm of 150-160kt which is an unbelievable 170-180mph.  I hope not. The loss of life and property would be beyond compare. 

[geocruiser]

Hi Bill,

 

I just can't think of the lost of life and the damage.  Hurricanes are the only thing that I don't miss since we don't live on the coast of Florida any more.  Roc. may have it snow, but I can deal with that, and Wegmans has curb side pick-up.  Great for bad weather days.

 

Maria

[PelicanBill]

Recordbreaking intensification rate.  Cancun ordered to evacuate. The only thing they could say was "head inland". Many tourists foolishly still there thinking they would ride out a category 1-2 yesterday. Today they can't get a flight.

This image looks awful.

[PelicanBill]

NHC has gone to 3-hour updates it seems. Maybe to help Mexico. No relief on the path to Cancun.  Major hurricane status (3) at the 8am Friday point, a bit close to the coast for comfort.  This path, if it holds, is worst for Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

[GA Dave]

TWC just said up to 9 foot surge in Cozumel and Cancun.  Damn.

 

 

[rkacruiser]

Surely regret as to Delta's effects that it may have South of where I live, but am encouraged that the projected path may provide some rain for my area that really does need it.  

 

Pelican Bill, any possible explanation as to why the Gulf area has seen so much activity this year?

[GA Dave]

1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

Surely regret as to Delta's effects that it may have South of where I live, but am encouraged that the projected path may provide some rain for my area that really does need it.  

 

Pelican Bill, any possible explanation as to why the Gulf area has seen so much activity this year?

Caribbean sea temps are very high this year.  That is a big cause for storms strengthening.

 

Current Sea Temps

Edited October 7, 2020 by GA Dave

[PelicanBill]

Agree with @GA Dave - 

The normal chain of waves off Africa got a boost as they entered the Caribbean, and the normal late season western Caribbean/Lower Gulf formation both benefit from the warmer sea temperatures. Plus some chance situations of favorable winds with little shear.

 

 

[PelicanBill]

So this morning....  Delta weakened yesterday evening but is still Category 3 as it makes landfall in Cancun. The small size of the storm is a benefit to Cozumel and the lower Costa Maya as those will get only tropical storm strength winds.  But still super dangerous and I can see storm surge on webcams still running.

 

The bad news is it expected to weaken to category 2, then regain some strength to category 3 again and maintain that into Gulf landfall.  Small storms are notoriously hard to forecast because they can change quickly. So it will not surprise me if it makes landfall as category 2.  But it is also expected to slow and grow - which is not good news.

 

[rkacruiser]

8 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

But it is also expected to slow and grow -

 

Monday's evening local TV weather personalities were predicting possible rain from this storm on Sunday.  The track/time you are now showing indicates some delay for that rain.  Whenever the rain arrives--Sunday/Monday--it is needed.  

[PelicanBill]

I have noticed the forecast track shifting west, slightly, with each update.  Here's a side by side of the last one (right) and the one before (left).

[PelicanBill]

Oh good - some rain for the Miami valley?

 

Here is the 5 pm update.  A weaker storm is finally forecast for landfall.  Let's hope.

[PelicanBill]

The slight shifts westward continue and the storm is now predicted to pass just 15 miles east of the track of Laura, near Lake Charles which was hard hit already.

Strength, as I had hoped and expected, is lower than Cat 3 but still cat 2 is very dangerous.  Timing is Friday afternoon for landfall.

[rkacruiser]

23 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Oh good - some rain for the Miami valley?

 

It certainly looks like it.  

[PelicanBill]

Although news outlets were hyping category 3 this morning, it is forecast to fall below the threshhold an make landfall as a strong category 2.  Track has held east of Lake Charles, which is a little helpful as that puts the Laura-ravaged city on the softer side of the storm. Looking at the size of hurricane force winds (brown) I would say they will get category 1 winds there, maybe, just maybe, even lower and into the strong tropical storm band.  That less populated zone to the east gets the brunt of this.

[PelicanBill]

Here's what I mean by "less populated."  Mostly wildlife refuge and conservation areas east of Lake Charles (which you can see at upper left.)  5 mile scale in the lower right. This makes he hopeful that we will get a less damaging impact this time.

[PelicanBill]

Just barely dropped out of Category 3 to Category 2. But that's a difference of only a few mph.  Lake Charles will be within Category 1 winds.

 

it is coming ashore now.  At least it's in daylight and not the middle of the night.

[rkacruiser]

For my area, tropical system Delta has been another disappointment in providing rain.  A few isolated showers on Saturday--not much rainfall at all.  Clouds all day today with scattered showers forecast.  None have materialized.  At least, so far.  Watching the Ravens vs. Bengals game in Baltimore, they were receiving what looked like good rainfall that I am fairly certain is due to Delta.  Most of the tropical systems that have gone North from the Gulf this season have stayed mostly South of the Ohio River.

[PelicanBill]

15 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

For my area, tropical system Delta has been another disappointment in providing rain.  A few isolated showers on Saturday--not much rainfall at all.  Clouds all day today with scattered showers forecast.  None have materialized.  At least, so far.  Watching the Ravens vs. Bengals game in Baltimore, they were receiving what looked like good rainfall that I am fairly certain is due to Delta.  Most of the tropical systems that have gone North from the Gulf this season have stayed mostly South of the Ohio River.

Yea I Saw that yesterday. Headed into mid-atlantic coast.