Oceania Sirena 20 Night North Sea Wonders 13-Jun-22 to 03-Jul-22

[conover1]

Seems this one needs a start.  Sixteen-months until it sails.  Looks like its safe for now. 

[clo]

We have one for 9/22 and have until June IIRC with deposit refund. I honestly am not terribly optimistic. The issue of all the governments agreeing on things still seem pretty huge to me.

[YoHoHo]

3 hours ago, conover1 said:

Seems this one needs a start.  Sixteen-months until it sails.  Looks like its safe for now. 

Hi conover1. "Seems this one needs a start." Were you intending to start a Roll Call? If yes, there are in a separate forum here:

Oceania Cruise Roll Calls - Cruise Critic Message Board Forums

 

[conover1]

Hello YoHo and clo. Believe the Sirena June 13 reference is to 2021 sailing styled “Celtic Thrones.”  Apparently, it has already or soon will cancel.  This board did not exist until yesterday.

 

Currently have three Oceania cruises booked.  One November another December this year and this June 2022.  The late 2021 sailings have an increasing probability of canceling.  Booked this because all summer European 2021 likely are gone regardless of the line.  As they cancel demand will shift forward to 2022 summer and by fall this year 2022 sailings will book out.  There is a moving wave of supply going forward and tremendous pent-up demand.  So, if affordable, it is strategic to keep booking forward offers until supply and demand equalize.  It will take many months to adjust before market normalizes.  As consumer, it is prudent to keep moving up calendar avoiding Asian, Middle East and Indian Ocean exotics concentrating on the Americas and Europe much closer to home should health issues arise again. Keep in mind when you put-up a outsize deposit you’re only buying an option on a future cruise which may not be exactly the one you’ve actually booked but will eventually apply to something if not this year then next.  . Deposits, which are many times what they once were, serve to ensure solvency of the cruise lines.       

Edited February 27, 2021 by conover1

[pinotlover]

Conover1;

 

You obviously believe that the cruise lines can survive not sailing until Summer 22. I’d advise you to look at their cash structures and current burn rates. A death spiral begins by year end. It will also take a lot of cash upfront to bring those ships out of cold storage and provision them for sailing.
 

I don’t believe your time tables are financially feasible.

[conover1]

Hello pinotlover.  Patricia, my wife is also a fan of Pinot Grigio, but she has an acquired affinity for almost anything white!

 

Your assessment of industry’s future is more pessimistic than mine.  Balance sheet of the big three (NCLH, CCL, and RCL) while not as bullet proof as they were, assures survival.  As cruising resume, and it will be beginning this fall, access to equity and/or debt financing if required will be available.  

 

Travel, dining and hospitality sectors have taken bigger hit than any other from pandemic.  Seasoned professionally managed publicly listed corporations will survive.  The big hit is to the airlines who may never fully recover lucrative business travel segment.  Optional leisure travel will be a larger portion of their revenue going forward.  No one enjoys flying.  If I were disposed to take a negative view about solvency it would be to short airlines and load up on hotels, restaurants, cruise lines and anything related to leisure travel as they are for now undervalued.   

[pinotlover]

Not at all pessimistic. I’m projecting that the cruise lines will be sailing in much of the world by 4th Qtr 2021. Probably not out of the US. Depending upon the much awaited decision by the EU, they may be sailing by 1 Jul in the Med. That’s optimism.

 

However, I only have a pessimistic view if those forecasting sailing worldwide can not resume until summer 2022 prove correct.

[conover1]

Agree the 1 Jul Med and Alaska itineraries are likely toast.  Dormant inventory of ships will slowly be reactivated into service as ports worldwide open stretching out cash required to bring inventory back on-line.  It will be slow return and the new normal then will be markedly different than it was.  Available capacity will be reduced.  Expenses will be higher as new protocols and restrictions apply.  Eventually all this added cost will be passed on to the consumer.

 

My two booked 2021 embark November and December into early ’22.  Yes, Summer of ’22 new normal will be reached.  This cruise fits that scenario and influences the booking.   Rolling bookings forward is strategic to take advantage of the bargain pricing.   Their priced simply to attract cash immediately.  The more successful the strategy the more likely they survive to sail again another day. My strategy has evolved with time aided by the recent good news from JNJ about their vaccine entry which will provide millions of doses by summer.  Believe this to be welcome news and a game-changer.  We will see and sail again.