Grace - Atlantic - August 14

[PelicanBill]

Grace formed overnight and is "a little bit stronger" now... and shifted west and following right in Fred's footsteps. But stronger. Hopefully will remain below hurricane strength!

[BeachDiva101]

Watching grace as I’m flying into Miami on Friday. Cruise on Saturday 8/21/21

[PelicanBill]

They call Grace "disorganized" yet also say it is getting more well-defined. And they say it may be strong enough to survive interactions with land intact as a tropical storm. So it should be watched carefully.  Conditions are favorable for development - little to interfere in the atmosphere, but intensity models only suggest tropical storm for 5-6 days. Warm water ahead... and no curve to the north being see in models yet. Models are very unclear 5 days out so there is no change in direction showing out there.

[PelicanBill]

10 hours ago, BeachDiva101 said:

Watching grace as I’m flying into Miami on Friday. Cruise on Saturday 8/21/21

I think you are in the clear!

[PelicanBill]

Grace has dropped to depression so it was not strong enough to survive interaction with land. And the path keeps it over land quite a while so forecasts have it returning to tropical storm in several days - Thursday! The slowing speed is going to drench Haiti and Cuba pretty bad. Rains could even touch the tip of the Yucatan. With no steering currents, it looks to continue on a nearly straight path toward the Texas/Mexico border.

[PelicanBill]

Still tracking WNW, but more south and slightly more W toward Mexico.  With less land interaction, it regains a tropical storm sooner and will affect Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Progesso, Cancun and Cozumel.

[PelicanBill]

Grace continues to shift slight west/south.  Will be a tropical storm again very soon. Jamaca and Caymans in her sights.

[PelicanBill]

Good chance Grace will make Category 1.

[BeachDiva101]

Thank you Bill for keeping track of all these storms.

[PelicanBill]

17 hours ago, BeachDiva101 said:

Thank you Bill for keeping track of all these storms.

you're welcome!

 

Grace's forecast is up and down. It regained tropical storm status as it passed Haiti.  Last night they thought it would reach hurricane status in the western gulf but today back to tropical storm.  But heading to northern Mexico seems likely. Even more westerly, though, which means a strong hit to Cancun and Cozumel now after a direct impact to the north Jamaica coast and Grand Cayman.

[PelicanBill]

Unfortunately, intensity forecast is way up suddenly. Hurricane strength at around Grand Cayman then as it comes ashore in Cozumel / Cancun and the vacation strip south.  Then drops and regains hurricane status again for second landfall.

[PelicanBill]

Grace is a little weaker due to Jamaica land interaction but plowing along.

[PelicanBill]

Grace is passing close to Grand Cayman, unfortunately to the south which puts the strong side on the islands.  Expected to become hurricane strength soon. Mexico landfall presently aimed at the Tulum area well south of Cancun but pretty strong impact to Playa Del Carmen, Cozumel east coast, and hotel zone north of Playa.

 

[PelicanBill]

Grace is a hurricane at 75mph and climbing to 85mph soon. At least that's staying in Category 1.

[Joe817]

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

Grace is a hurricane at 75mph and climbing to 85mph soon. At least that's staying in Category 1.

Let's hope it stays that way. Thanks PelicanBill for keeping us updated! This is very valuable information, as we are leaving on the Vista this Saturday(3 days). 

[PelicanBill]

Grace is inland on the Yucatan crossing south of Cozumel as expected, winds 75mph.

[PelicanBill]

Here's the track for Grace. Relatively unpopulated areas which is good, however, more likely to suffer destruction.  Strength as expected at Category 1.

[PelicanBill]

Grave is inland, down to tropical storm and will be a depression later.  Moving slightly north of the previous forecast... toward Guadalajara.

[PelicanBill]

Yikes. As we were all watching Henri, Grace increased to a category 3 becoming the strongest storm to ever land in the Bay of Campeche. From Yale Climate Connections:

[rkacruiser]

21 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Yikes. As we were all watching Henri, Grace increased to a category 3 becoming the strongest storm to ever land in the Bay of Campeche. From Yale Climate Connections:

 

Are storms like jealous people?  One gets more attention than another and one expresses that jealousy someway?  😁

[PelicanBill]

15 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Are storms like jealous people?  One gets more attention than another and one expresses that jealousy someway?  😁

Just like cats!