An era is ending

[dwc13]

Changing business environments affect companies lacking the resources and/or acumen to adapt. Happens in every industry, especially those that require ongoing capital investments in technology/R&D and/or processes. Fringe players with small market share are typically the first to exit, but even large companies can suffer the same fate -- Kokak being the poster child. The rapid development and exponential adoption of digital technology in photography wiped out Kodak in relatively short order.

 

Sony, Canon, and Fujifilm are much larger and more diversified relative to Nikon. Sony makes CMOS sensors used in smartphones and tablets; it currently has the largest market share, ahead of Samsung. Who can forget their first Walkman or PlayStation? Earlier this year we bought a Sony 4K TV. In the past, ES audio equipment, headphones, boom box. I have owned Canon cameras, printers and scanners and used high speed copiers from the company. From Fuji, various medical equipment has been used in hospitals and, of course, film. If I had to speculate, I would say Nikon is the most vulnerable of the big 4. My wife has an early model Nikon DSLR and a few digital lenses, but that's it from the company. I just don't see where Nikon has the financial resources needed to successfully compete in the long run. Hope I'm wrong. Perhaps it can be like Nintendo, a company that very successfully competes against much larger Microsoft and Sony. But first Nikon will need to find its Mario and Zelda. 

 

But if I was a betting man, I wouldn't be too surprised if a third-party lens manufacturer exits the consumer market. Smartphones are ubiquitous and their camera technology continues to improve. It's only a matter of time before bigger/more capable sensors and lenses are in smartphones. DSLRs and mirrorless cameras and their lenses will never be able to compete on size or convenience. That's part of the reason Zeiss and Leica have collaborated with and licensed technology to smartphone manufacturers. The value of an IP portfolio is often worth more in the hands of a company that knows how to license the technology rather than solely sticking to manufacturing its own products. So, what are the likes of Samyang, Tamron, Sigma and others similarly situated going to do? 

[eileeshb]

There’s definitely going to be shrinkage in the range of dSLRs being offered. Most folks who got the first consumer level versions have likely switched to using their phones these days.

The main reason I moved up the range in my dSLR was for sports photography and I still stopped at the level below the full time pros.  
When I got my first dSLR it was a Minolta dynax 5d, at the time it was so much better than the equivalent Canon that my late father had both in build quality and performance. The Minolta produced images that could be printed at A4 size at good quality. When I went to upgrade to a body that had a greater range of available lenses suitable for sports I originally planned on a Nikon but found the grip depth on their camera body to be too deep for my hands and I don’t have particularly tiny hands so that caused me to go for a canon 40D and then 7d and 7d mkII.  I’ve no reason to go for a higher spec body than the 7d&7dmkII, the 40d got killed by extreme heat which led to the purchase of the 7dmkII so I’d still have 2 bodies. 
 

From the moment digital cameras came on the the scene I found that specs are not the be-all and end-all, as illustrated by the canon v Minolta experience I had, both were 5mp and supposedly similar  in all other aspects. Previous to the dSLRs my father and I had 3mp bridge cameras and again the one I had purchased produced higher quality images than his, mine was a Nikon and his an Olympus. The Nikon was retired when a few pixels died, specifically one smack in the middle of the picture, the Olympus continued to be used for daily online surf reports for a few years. 
 

btw I highly recommend Flickr if you ever want to get an idea of what a particular camera/lens combo is capable of as well as seeing the settings used to take particular types of pictures.