Rare Honolulu Blue Posted September 29, 2022 #51 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Sorry to interrupt this discussion of all things Ian, but there's a disturbance in the Pacific I would like to point out. Tropical Storm Orlene has formed off the coast of Mexico. It's a minimal tropical storm now, but it's projected to become a hurricane in the next day or two. Its path is also interesting - it's projected to go from WNW to NW to N to NNE. By Monday morning, the center of the cone puts it between Puerto Vallarta, Cabo San Lucas, and Mazatlan - and a little too close to all three for comfort. By Tuesday it's projected to weaken to a tropical depression and be inland and well away from our ports of interest. The Carnival Panorama will be setting sail from Long Beach on Saturday and is scheduled for two sea days to PV. It might get scarily close to Orlene if it keeps to schedule, which is a reason that it might change things up. The Navigator OTS might have to switch things around also, though I don't know its exact schedule (sorry). There might be other ships in or near the Mexican Riviera, and they'll also have to keep an eye on things. Back to our regularly scheduled programming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamer68 Posted September 30, 2022 #52 Share Posted September 30, 2022 On 9/23/2022 at 1:00 PM, wolft927 said: I am fully prepared for a delayed in boarding just hope NCL let’s us know as I do not want to drive down Wednesday if not boarding till Friday I'm guessing your cruise was cancelled, @wolft927. Hope you and your family are safe somewhere. I'm curious to know what your cruise line sent you and other clients with the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 3, 2022 Author #53 Share Posted October 3, 2022 On 9/29/2022 at 5:52 AM, Honolulu Blue said: Sorry to interrupt this discussion of all things Ian, but there's a disturbance in the Pacific I would like to point out. Tropical Storm Orlene has formed off the coast of Mexico. It's a minimal tropical storm now, but it's projected to become a hurricane in the next day or two. Its path is also interesting - it's projected to go from WNW to NW to N to NNE. By Monday morning, the center of the cone puts it between Puerto Vallarta, Cabo San Lucas, and Mazatlan - and a little too close to all three for comfort. By Tuesday it's projected to weaken to a tropical depression and be inland and well away from our ports of interest. The Carnival Panorama will be setting sail from Long Beach on Saturday and is scheduled for two sea days to PV. It might get scarily close to Orlene if it keeps to schedule, which is a reason that it might change things up. The Navigator OTS might have to switch things around also, though I don't know its exact schedule (sorry). There might be other ships in or near the Mexican Riviera, and they'll also have to keep an eye on things. Back to our regularly scheduled programming... Thank you. Orlene is coming ashore in Mexico now with 100mph winds. Small, but can never discount the center of such a storm. I can't figure out exactly what village/city is being affected yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 3, 2022 Author #54 Share Posted October 3, 2022 In the Atlantic, there is one area that's been around but not doing much. A new one is heading toward the Caribbean with a 40% chance to form over 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 3, 2022 Author #55 Share Posted October 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, PelicanBill said: Thank you. Orlene is coming ashore in Mexico now with 100mph winds. Small, but can never discount the center of such a storm. I can't figure out exactly what village/city is being affected yet. It's south of Mazatlan, which is experiencing tropical storm force winds. Small fishing villages most likely getting the the brunt of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 4, 2022 Author #56 Share Posted October 4, 2022 The Atlantic disturbance is weaker today. Good! The one farther east that is stronger is still not a threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 4, 2022 Author #57 Share Posted October 4, 2022 That yellow has been bumped back up to orange and 40% as of 11am Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 4, 2022 Author #58 Share Posted October 4, 2022 1 hour ago, PelicanBill said: That yellow has been bumped back up to orange and 40% as of 11am Tuesday. make that 60%. Strangely, the 11am update was 50 minutes late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 4, 2022 Author #59 Share Posted October 4, 2022 The outlook says conditions will be more favorite when this system reaches the central Caribbean, or as it is near or past the ABC Islands and heading toward Central America. No curves showing in the models yet, so the path suggests Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Belize in the possible path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 5, 2022 Author #60 Share Posted October 5, 2022 increased to 80%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dreamer68 Posted October 5, 2022 #61 Share Posted October 5, 2022 44 minutes ago, PelicanBill said: increased to 80%. Yuck... 😔 Thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 5, 2022 Author #62 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Same 80% today. Path models still showing a very westerly track toward Nicaragua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 5, 2022 Author #63 Share Posted October 5, 2022 11am update. Path and intensity models below, show fairly convergent continuing westward and no more than tropical storm strength for now. Cruises may have to avoid Roatan for a day or two, maybe also Belize and Harvest Caye, but still early of course. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 6, 2022 Author #64 Share Posted October 6, 2022 The storm we're watching is at 80% chance to become a depression or more within 2 days, 90% within 5 days, so it is likely to form as it passes the ABC islands. It is expected to become stronger and it still on a westerly path toward Nicaragua and Honduras. TD 12 is of no concern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 7, 2022 Author #65 Share Posted October 7, 2022 So the disturbance is TD 13 now, expected to be Tropical Storm Julia later today (on my Daughter Julia's birthday, LOL). It is no threat to cruise ports but coastal Nicaragua is likely to see a hurricane Sunday. Not good for all those fishing villages. Aruba saw some stormy weather, and Monday Belize could see the same but does not look like anything dangerous there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 7, 2022 Author #66 Share Posted October 7, 2022 This is now Tropical Storm Julia. I am not starting a new thread as it has little or no impact to cruising so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 7, 2022 Author #67 Share Posted October 7, 2022 oh, and there is no other Atlantic tropical weather to track. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 9, 2022 Author #68 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Julia made landfall on the Nicaragua coast and will progress west into the Pacific as a tropical storm. The Pacific coasts of El Savador and Guatemala will be lightly affected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 11, 2022 Author #69 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Chances to develop raised to 60% in 2-5 days. May bring rains or more to lower Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 11, 2022 Author #70 Share Posted October 11, 2022 This little thing turned into Tropical Storm Karl, but it's going to curve sharply back onto the Mexico coast and isn't very strong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 13, 2022 Author #71 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Karl is starting to move southward for a Mexico landfall in a sparsely populated coast. A new disturbance is at 20% chance to develop and facing a strong ridge that is expected to push it northwest quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 14, 2022 Author #72 Share Posted October 14, 2022 Karl is moving very slowly, but as expected south into Mexico. The other disturbance has little chance to develop as it runs into strong upper level winds next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 17, 2022 Author #73 Share Posted October 17, 2022 All quiet, and let's stay that way. The Legend leaves Baltimore in just under 2 weeks for a 2 week run to the Panama canal (turnaround), and I'll be on it.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 19, 2022 Author #74 Share Posted October 19, 2022 My favorite NOAA/NHC status. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted October 21, 2022 Author #75 Share Posted October 21, 2022 Gotta watch this. 20% chance over 5 days, heading toward Bermuda and mid-atlantic coast. My cruise leaves from Baltimore in 9 days. This is moving pretty fast but we do not want it to slow down and develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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