September-October Disturbance Discussions

[Honolulu Blue]

Sorry to interrupt this discussion of all things Ian, but there's a disturbance in the Pacific I would like to point out.  Tropical Storm Orlene has formed off the coast of Mexico.  It's a minimal tropical storm now, but it's projected to become a hurricane in the next day or two.  Its path is also interesting - it's projected to go from WNW to NW to N to NNE.  By Monday morning, the center of the cone puts it between Puerto Vallarta, Cabo San Lucas, and Mazatlan - and a little too close to all three for comfort.  By Tuesday it's projected to weaken to a tropical depression and be inland and well away from our ports of interest.

 

The Carnival Panorama will be setting sail from Long Beach on Saturday and is scheduled for two sea days to PV.  It might get scarily close to Orlene if it keeps to schedule, which is a reason that it might change things up.  The Navigator OTS might have to switch things around also, though I don't know its exact schedule (sorry).  There might be other ships in or near the Mexican Riviera, and they'll also have to keep an eye on things.

 

Back to our regularly scheduled programming...

[Dreamer68]

On 9/23/2022 at 1:00 PM, wolft927 said:

I am fully prepared for a delayed in boarding just hope NCL let’s us know as I do not want to drive down Wednesday if not boarding till Friday 

I'm guessing your cruise was cancelled, @wolft927. Hope you and your family are safe somewhere. I'm curious to know what your cruise line sent you and other clients with the last 24 hours. 

[PelicanBill]

On 9/29/2022 at 5:52 AM, Honolulu Blue said:

Sorry to interrupt this discussion of all things Ian, but there's a disturbance in the Pacific I would like to point out.  Tropical Storm Orlene has formed off the coast of Mexico.  It's a minimal tropical storm now, but it's projected to become a hurricane in the next day or two.  Its path is also interesting - it's projected to go from WNW to NW to N to NNE.  By Monday morning, the center of the cone puts it between Puerto Vallarta, Cabo San Lucas, and Mazatlan - and a little too close to all three for comfort.  By Tuesday it's projected to weaken to a tropical depression and be inland and well away from our ports of interest.

 

The Carnival Panorama will be setting sail from Long Beach on Saturday and is scheduled for two sea days to PV.  It might get scarily close to Orlene if it keeps to schedule, which is a reason that it might change things up.  The Navigator OTS might have to switch things around also, though I don't know its exact schedule (sorry).  There might be other ships in or near the Mexican Riviera, and they'll also have to keep an eye on things.

 

Back to our regularly scheduled programming...

Thank you. Orlene is coming ashore in Mexico now with 100mph  winds. Small, but can never discount the center of such a storm.  I can't figure out exactly what village/city is being affected yet.

[PelicanBill]

In the Atlantic, there is one area that's been around but not doing much.

A new one is heading toward the Caribbean with a 40% chance to form over 5 days.

[PelicanBill]

2 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Thank you. Orlene is coming ashore in Mexico now with 100mph  winds. Small, but can never discount the center of such a storm.  I can't figure out exactly what village/city is being affected yet.

It's south of Mazatlan, which is experiencing tropical storm force winds.  Small fishing villages most likely getting the the brunt of this.

[PelicanBill]

The Atlantic disturbance is weaker today.  Good!  The one farther east that is stronger is still not a threat.

[PelicanBill]

That yellow has been bumped back up to orange and 40% as of 11am Tuesday.

[PelicanBill]

1 hour ago, PelicanBill said:

That yellow has been bumped back up to orange and 40% as of 11am Tuesday.

make that 60%.  Strangely, the 11am update was 50 minutes late.

[PelicanBill]

The outlook says conditions will be more favorite when this system reaches the central Caribbean, or as it is near or past the ABC Islands and heading toward Central America.  No curves showing in the models yet, so the path suggests Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Belize in the possible path.

[PelicanBill]

increased to 80%.

[Dreamer68]

44 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

increased to 80%.

Yuck... 😔 Thanks for the update. 

[PelicanBill]

Same 80% today.  Path models still showing a very westerly track toward Nicaragua.

[PelicanBill]

11am update.  Path and intensity models below, show fairly convergent continuing westward and no more than tropical storm strength for now.  Cruises may have to avoid Roatan for a day or two, maybe also Belize and Harvest Caye, but still early of course.

[PelicanBill]

The storm we're watching is at 80% chance to become a depression or more within 2 days, 90% within 5 days, so it is likely to form as it passes the ABC islands.  It is expected to become stronger and it still on a westerly path toward Nicaragua and Honduras.

 

TD 12 is of no concern.

[PelicanBill]

So the disturbance is TD 13 now, expected to be Tropical Storm Julia later today (on my Daughter Julia's birthday, LOL).

 

It is no threat to cruise ports but coastal Nicaragua is likely to see a hurricane Sunday. Not good for all those fishing villages.  Aruba saw some stormy weather, and Monday Belize could see the same but does not look like anything dangerous there.

[PelicanBill]

This is now Tropical Storm Julia.  I am not starting a new thread as it has little or no impact to cruising so far.

[PelicanBill]

oh, and there is no other Atlantic tropical weather to track.

[PelicanBill]

Julia made landfall on the Nicaragua coast and will progress west into the Pacific as a tropical storm. The Pacific coasts of El Savador and Guatemala will be lightly affected.

[PelicanBill]

Chances to develop raised to 60% in 2-5 days.  May bring rains or more to lower Texas.

 

[PelicanBill]

This little thing turned into Tropical Storm Karl, but it's going to curve sharply back onto the Mexico coast and isn't very strong.

[PelicanBill]

Karl is starting to move southward for a Mexico landfall in a sparsely populated coast.

A new disturbance is at 20% chance to develop and facing a strong ridge that is expected to push it northwest quickly.

 

[PelicanBill]

Karl is moving very slowly, but as expected south into Mexico.

The other disturbance has little chance to develop as it runs into strong upper level winds next week.

[PelicanBill]

All quiet, and let's stay that way.  The Legend leaves Baltimore in just under 2 weeks for a 2 week run to the Panama canal (turnaround), and I'll be on it....

[PelicanBill]

My favorite NOAA/NHC status.

 

[PelicanBill]

Gotta watch this. 20% chance over 5 days, heading toward Bermuda and mid-atlantic coast. My cruise leaves from Baltimore in 9 days. This is moving pretty fast but we do not want it to slow down and develop.