Are we at capacity?

[Karaboudjan]

1 hour ago, cruiseny4life said:

Noooooooooo!!!!! Frankie boy said they won't offer discounts! This just can't happen. 

 

I was curious about my cruise starting on Saturday, so went through every option and every deck. There sure are a lot of vacant rooms. I'd venture to guess 50% of interior and oceanview rooms are vacant. Almost all the aft balcony (non-Haven) rooms are vacant. Perhaps 40% of Club Balconies are vacant and a good number of regular balconies are vacant (not sure of number there). I think a lot of people will be happy with their upgrades starting in a couple of days. 

 

But really, if anyone takes Frankie boy at his word (does anyone?) they just need to look at cruises after final payment date. They'll quickly realize what a speaker of mistruth he is. 

 

Do you have a source for FDR saying that they won't discount?  I think that is twisting his words.  I just checked the Q2 earnings presentations and there is a whole slide on marketing and nowhere does it say that they will not discount.  

[cruiseny4life]

7 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

 

Do you have a source for FDR saying that they won't discount?  I think that is twisting his words.  I just checked the Q2 earnings presentations and there is a whole slide on marketing and nowhere does it say that they will not discount.  

Hey there! Awww you're pulling a me on me, asking for a source. Good on ya! 😁

 

Here's a couple of sources (they wouldn't exactly pass muster with a professor, but they work for me):

 

1.  https://thepointsguy.com/news/cruise-deals-industry-rebound/  Frankie Boy: “Look, it goes back to our core going-to-market principle of market-to-fill and not discounting to fill,” Del Rio said. “At this stage of the recovery, having four or five more [percentage] points of occupancy at the expense of lower pricing, which could have a very negative long-term effect on the brand’s equity, is not the right move.”

 

2. https://www.cruisehive.com/norwegian-cruise-line-wont-be-dropping-prices-to-fill-ships/78676 Frankie Boy: “I’ve managed cruise companies in good times and in bad times, and I am convinced, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that you don’t sacrifice the long-term pricing power of your brand in order to achieve short-term load factor gains.”

“I’m not willing to mortgage the company for 10-plus years in order to window dress the next quarter’s results, I just won’t do it. We’re here for the long term. We’re managing the business on a long-term basis.”

[rbxlady]

On 8/28/2022 at 6:09 AM, NauticalOtter said:

That…sounds…absolutely dreadful.  
 

Where do you even store clothes for that many adults in a cabin? 💀

Just wear it all, then peel off layers as you go.

[Karaboudjan]

47 minutes ago, cruiseny4life said:

Hey there! Awww you're pulling a me on me, asking for a source. Good on ya! 😁

 

Here's a couple of sources (they wouldn't exactly pass muster with a professor, but they work for me):

 

1.  https://thepointsguy.com/news/cruise-deals-industry-rebound/  Frankie Boy: “Look, it goes back to our core going-to-market principle of market-to-fill and not discounting to fill,” Del Rio said. “At this stage of the recovery, having four or five more [percentage] points of occupancy at the expense of lower pricing, which could have a very negative long-term effect on the brand’s equity, is not the right move.”

 

2. https://www.cruisehive.com/norwegian-cruise-line-wont-be-dropping-prices-to-fill-ships/78676 Frankie Boy: “I’ve managed cruise companies in good times and in bad times, and I am convinced, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that you don’t sacrifice the long-term pricing power of your brand in order to achieve short-term load factor gains.”

“I’m not willing to mortgage the company for 10-plus years in order to window dress the next quarter’s results, I just won’t do it. We’re here for the long term. We’re managing the business on a long-term basis.”

 

Thanks, but I still don't think he is saying they will never discount.  He says their core strategy is market to fill, but I don't see why that would exclude discounting at times when it makes sense.  These are unusual times and there is probably more discounting than usual and more than they would like, but does it mean they have abandoned their strategy?  I'd say probably not.

[cruiseny4life]

12 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

 

Thanks, but I still don't think he is saying they will never discount.  He says their core strategy is market to fill, but I don't see why that would exclude discounting at times when it makes sense.  These are unusual times and there is probably more discounting than usual and more than they would like, but does it mean they have abandoned their strategy?  I'd say probably not.

He does say "...not discounting to fill..."

 

My interpretation of that is that he won't discount. But he does, so in reality you're right...trust me, I'd never take the words of any CEO literally. 

[RumRunner2021]

You folks talk like a corporation has one stable strategy.  Why did my old company update the five year plan once a year??  🤣

[Nclgetawaymenhoney]

5 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Can you PLEASE share/hint at this site that shows up to 100 cabins? I've been logged in as a TA and can't even see 100 cabins at a time.

 

People have suggested it's one of the big box stores, and I agree, they do show more than 15 cabins per deck, but it's still limited to 15 cabins per category per deck.

 

I'm begging and would be Extremely Grateful!! 🙂 

 

 

If one decided to google TA in New Hampshire that specialize in cruises one might find a 6 letter TA that particular TA I’ve used successfully for inventory checks and has always been accurate since 2018

[cruiseny4life]

2 minutes ago, RumRunner2021 said:

You folks talk like a corporation has one stable strategy.  Why did my old company update the five year plan once a year??  🤣

To be fair, frankie boy's been talking market to fill since at least 2018. Here's an article from 2018, and an interesting quote regarding discounts within the final payment window: “The days of us or anybody else deeply discounting inventory inside of 30 days or 60 days are gone...” Source: https://www.travelresearchonline.com/blog/index.php/2018/09/frank-del-rio-mind-the-curve/ (and yea, I know...I'm not using proper citation etiquette...sorry, not sorry OWL). 

 

Of course that was well before the pandemic upended our lives, but hey, he's back to his old strategy. Truth be told, I think his strategy will work...as long as they continue discounting within the final payment window (which they do). 

[Nclgetawaymenhoney]

3 hours ago, graphicguy said:

There is no legit source.  It’s just noise, like some who have little in the way of experience with NCL.

 

Those of us who have sailed and shopped NCL, who have lots of experience with NCL, know how they work.  Depending on category, they do dynamic pricing that changes frequently so they maximize revenue while filling the ship.

 

If there’s a category they need to ramp up, they will change pricing to reflect that.  It can and does change regularly.  Looking at the NE cruises in Oct, Haven fares are high.  That tells me inventory is low for that category.  Inside cabin fares are low.  Tells me they have some inventory they want to move in that category.  

 

It’s super rare any cruise line, on any ship (save the specialty ones), are close to capacity over a month out from sailing. 

 

On line at the WEB site isn’t accurate.  Call your PCC or your TA and ask what’s available.  They have a more accurate look on what’s going on.

 

Looking at Sept sailings to NE, I see the Spa Category sold out on one of the sailings.  Inside cabins are going for $1,000 per couple on some.  That’s high.

 

I think you’ll find capacity to be tighter than you think.

My sailing oct 16th, only 1 total haven left but 250 plus balconies including 2 categories with 100 plus for balconies 

[graphicguy]

17 minutes ago, Nclgetawaymenhoney said:

My sailing oct 16th, only 1 total haven left but 250 plus balconies including 2 categories with 100 plus for balconies 

Even using your numbers (which I still say only NCL knows), that's 500 guests to book based on double occupancy.

 

Capacity is ~4,000 on the Away ships.  That's roughly 12%-13% open occupancy with a month and a half from sailing.  

 

Sounds about dead on what would be considered normal.  Actually, probably a little ahead of schedule.

[graphicguy]

38 minutes ago, cruiseny4life said:

He does say "...not discounting to fill..."

 

My interpretation of that is that he won't discount. But he does, so in reality you're right...trust me, I'd never take the words of any CEO literally. 

He does discount.  NCL's pricing is probably more dynamic than any of the other big lines to fill a ship.

 

Frank's hyperbole sounds good, though.

[RumRunner2021]

38 minutes ago, Nclgetawaymenhoney said:

If one decided to google TA in New Hampshire that specialize in cruises one might find a 6 letter TA that particular TA I’ve used successfully for inventory checks and has always been accurate since 2018

Thanks!!!  I'm seeing a bazillion available balconies on my upcoming cruise.

[RumRunner2021]

10 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

Frank's hyperbole sounds good, though.

Kind of like when the car salesman tells you there's a big price increase coming and this little baby will never be cheaper?

[BermudaBound2014]

49 minutes ago, Nclgetawaymenhoney said:

If one decided to google TA in New Hampshire that specialize in cruises one might find a 6 letter TA that particular TA I’ve used successfully for inventory checks and has always been accurate since 2018

 

ThANK YOU. You are a gem!! If we ever sail together first round is on me :).

[Nclgetawaymenhoney]

4 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

ThANK YOU. You are a gem!! If we ever sail together first round is on me :).

No problem just paying it forward from someone else years ago that gave me that tip

[Nclgetawaymenhoney]

16 minutes ago, RumRunner2021 said:

Thanks!!!  I'm seeing a bazillion available balconies on my upcoming cruise.

Yep used it for 4 years plus

[Nclgetawaymenhoney]

30 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

Even using your numbers (which I still say only NCL knows), that's 500 guests to book based on double occupancy.

 

Capacity is ~4,000 on the Away ships.  That's roughly 12%-13% open occupancy with a month and a half from sailing.  

 

Sounds about dead on what would be considered normal.  Actually, probably a little ahead of schedule.

That was just balconies and remember two categories of balconies are at 100 plus available and have been since I’ve been monitoring since end of may, total cabins that I can see available as of yesterday is 502, their are 2014 total cabins on the breakaway, now I monitored my early may sailing on the joy for months before as well and we ended up at like 60 percent capacity, I know the numbers are nowhere near as low as early May, time will tell happy sailing to all.

[BermudaBound2014]

On 8/28/2022 at 9:42 AM, graphicguy said:

I was looking at NE cruises for OCT.  Agree, it will sail at capacity by the looks of it.  Most of NCL’s cruises the last couple of months have.

 

Wrong again. How many times must I do this. I feel a bit bad constantly correcting you, but we have a responsibility on the forum to post factual information. Continuing to post this non-sense is irresponsible. 

 

1) The October 16th Breakaway will not sail anywhere near capacity. It looks to be LESS than 50% sold right now. 

 

2) Most of NCL's cruses have not sailed at capacity the last few months. We know this because Frank Del Rio told the United States Securities Exchange Commission that they ONLY managed 85% in July (less in the preceding months). July should be their busiest month of the year. Are you saying FDR is lying to the SEC?

 

 

4 hours ago, graphicguy said:

It’s super rare any cruise line, on any ship (save the specialty ones), are close to capacity over a month out from sailing. 

 

Do you just make this up as you go along? If you actually read NCL's quarterly releases, they have specifically addressed this topic. You are wrong. No other way to say it.  There will not be some mad rush in the next 6 weeks to book the October 16th sailing of the Breakaway. There never is. I will be shocked if this ships sails at 60%.

 

 

 

4 hours ago, graphicguy said:

On line at the WEB site isn’t accurate.  Call your PCC or your TA and ask what’s available.  They have a more accurate look on what’s going on.

 

None-sense. I have the ability to log in as a TA. Inventory is in a dynamic database. The only time that it might not be accurate is if people have cabins on hold  and even that is rare.

 

 

 

4 hours ago, graphicguy said:

Looking at Sept sailings to NE, I see the Spa Category sold out on one of the sailings.  Inside cabins are going for $1,000 per couple on some.  That’s high.

 

I think you’ll find capacity to be tighter than you think.

 

We were specifically discussing the October sailings to NE. Of course the September sailings will show more inventory. they still aren't anywhere near capacity. Regardless; you don't just get to change the departure month mid-way thru the analysis. LOL

 

I'm sure you mean well, but your information is often glaringly wrong and misleading to the forum members who don't know to double check your postings for accuracy. 

 

[graphicguy]

2 minutes ago, Nclgetawaymenhoney said:

That was just balconies and remember two categories of balconies are at 100 plus available and have been since I’ve been monitoring since end of may, total cabins that I can see available as of yesterday is 502, their are 2014 total cabins on the breakaway, now I monitored my early may sailing on the joy for months before as well and we ended up at like 60 percent capacity, I know the numbers are nowhere near as low as early May, time will tell happy sailing to all.

Yeah...I started sailing at start up, on NCL and Celebrity.  Most (all?) of those sailings went out at 40% capacity, but that was limited by the cruise lines.  This past June, I sailed on a Royal ship and last month, the NCL Getaway.  Both were at capacity.  Quite a bit different than earlier in the year.

[Holly g]

We have an October cruise to Canada booked on the Joy and was just told by NCL that they will be sailing at 85% capacity for that cruise. 
 

[Nclgetawaymenhoney]

39 minutes ago, Holly g said:

We have an October cruise to Canada booked on the Joy and was just told by NCL that they will be sailing at 85% capacity for that cruise. 
 

10 minutes of research shows 402 available cabins right now which is closer to 80 percent capacity at the moment, of course inventory will continue to go down for last minute bookings, interesting though is several havens in most categories available unlike breakaway a few days later with just one left happy sailing 

[BermudaBound2014]

15 hours ago, Holly g said:

We have an October cruise to Canada booked on the Joy and was just told by NCL that they will be sailing at 85% capacity for that cruise. 
 

 

I'm not sure of your date, but I just ran October 12, 2022 numbers. There are approximately 1,400 cabins on the joy. Only 519 are booked.

-87 Inside

-15 ocean view

-334 balcony

-50 club balcony

-33 haven

 

The October 12th sailing of the NCL Joy is currently 37% booked.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

18 hours ago, graphicguy said:

Most (all?) of those sailings went out at 40% capacity, but that was limited by the cruise lines. 

 

Nope. Not even close. Please review the documents filed by NCL with the SEC and read carefully. 54.4% of the available cabins were booked, but NCL had self imposed capacity limits.  Putting occupancy at the start up in the 15-25% range.

 

Anyone on this board who followed the start up of all cruise lines is aware that they were no where near 40% occupancy.

Edited August 30, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[MotownVoice]

On 8/28/2022 at 12:22 AM, styxfire said:

Industry has started hiring contractors to review cruise critic content. There are agreements in place between cruise critic and some lines.   Not sure whether or not they are allowed to post, but this really isn’t going to be the truth-sharing forum that it used to be.

Well as long as your claiming to be the torch-bearer for truth ... where did you hear all of that?  Who intimated to you above all else that CC has "an agreement in place" with any cruise lines? 

[BatchawanaBabe]

On 8/30/2022 at 11:27 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I'm not sure of your date, but I just ran October 12, 2022 numbers. There are approximately 1,400 cabins on the joy. Only 519 are booked.

-87 Inside

-15 ocean view

-334 balcony

-50 club balcony

-33 haven

 

The October 12th sailing of the NCL Joy is currently 37% booked.

 

We're on the Encore's October 23rd Panama Canal sailing. Do you have any idea how close to capacity it's booked?  Trying for upgrades to various Haven categories and see a few available. Also worried about too many people on a 3 week cruise.  Thanks, Lia