Have International Airfares Gone Through the Roof?

[Blue Eyes]

 

On 7/31/2024 at 3:40 AM, Globaliser said:

 

If you're able to select a seat, then it's usually the case that nobody else has already selected that seat, and that will then be the seat that you have selected. That means that it will be in your reservation - but (as FlyerTalker says) that selection is only ever a request, it does not form part of your contract with the airline, and the airline can change it at any time for any (or even no) reason. So far so good.

 

The difficulty comes if you try to extrapolate from a seat map to the question of how "heavily booked" the flight is. This runs into lots of difficulties. There's a difference between reservations and ticketing: So what do you count as a booking? What do you count as "fully booked"? How about reservations (both ticketed and unticketed) that have no seat requests? How about bookings on fares that don't allow seat selection at all until check-in? How about reservations that are still taken when every seat on the aircraft has already been requested? (Although this last factor obviously isn't relevant if you're looking at an empty seat map rather than a full one.)

 

Even greater difficulty comes if you try to extrapolate from a seat map to the question of what fares will do. There's a common misconception that airlines sell seats like a supermarket sells tins of baked beans: on a 100-seat aircraft, there'll be 5 tins at $1, 10 tins at $2, 20 tins at $3 and so on, and once the $1 tins have been sold, then everyone else will be paying $2 or more. But that's not how it works.

 

Every single thing about pricing is dynamic; it can change at any moment. You could find that although the airline will offer 9 seats at $1 today, if you book four seats at $1 today then tomorrow you'll find that the cheapest seat is now $5. This can happen if that sale of four seats pushes the selling profile of the flight (plotted against time during the selling cycle) above the predicted profile, so the flight is selling better than modelled. You could then find that nobody else books the flight for two weeks, and - even though the flight's status has been completely static during that time - the selling profile has now dropped below the predicted profile, and cheaper prices are once more available - perhaps even back at $1.

 

So, in short, don't think that looking at a seat map - or anything other information that's publicly available about a flight - is going to tell you anything reliable about loads or pricing. The only reliable information that comes from an airline is how much you will have to pay today to make a booking (and even that is subject to confirmation when you try to book, because your booking might still be refused). Anything else is guesswork - and you can be assured that the airline is much cleverer than you, and holds much more information about the flight than you could ever know or find out.

 

GLOBALISER….thanks for the very informative post.  Four of us are traveling to London next May for a Norwegian fjords cruise.  Searching for airfare/routes is overwhelming. Just wondered if you would share any thoughts about time frame to book a May 2025 trip.  We’ll either connect ( most likely) out of JFK or ATL.  Any pros or cons of LHR or LGW?  I know it’s a gamble…

anyone else wants to come in, I’d welcome your thoughts….

[Island2Dweller]

17 hours ago, gorda said:

After paying and choosing my seat I decided that maybe I should  upgrade

With most European airlines (BA included), business class is the same seat as economy.  What you get for the extra money is an empty middle seat, better catering, and lounge access.  You do not get more legroom.

[gorda]

Good to know Island2Dweller. Dont usually fly between European cities.

[FlyerTalker]

34 minutes ago, Island2Dweller said:

With most European airlines (BA included), business class is the same seat as economy.  What you get for the extra money is an empty middle seat, better catering, and lounge access.  You do not get more legroom.

 

Careful.

 

What you are describing is intra-Europe, narrowbody aircraft.  It most assuredly does NOT describe intercontinental aircraft.  Your "most European airlines" comment was grossly misleading.

 

 

[Island2Dweller]

5 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

t most assuredly does NOT describe intercontinental aircraft.  Your "most European airlines" comment was grossly misleading.

Yes I agree, as we were discussing an intra Europe flight - I'd accept it as a badly worded comment. 

[taxatty]

9 hours ago, Blue Eyes said:

GLOBALISER….thanks for the very informative post.  Four of us are traveling to London next May for a Norwegian fjords cruise.  Searching for airfare/routes is overwhelming. Just wondered if you would share any thoughts about time frame to book a May 2025 trip.  We’ll either connect ( most likely) out of JFK or ATL.  Any pros or cons of LHR or LGW?  I know it’s a gamble…

anyone else wants to come in, I’d welcome your thoughts….

If you're a reasonable driving distance from ATL, it could be best to do so and fly nonstop from there. If you're not, consider leaving at least 2 hours between your domestic and international flights (especially if you have or can get airport lounge access), or possibly stay overnight in ATL or JFK and then fly to London the next day. As for LHR v. LGW, LHR generally has more flights to and from the US and is closer to London, but both work. The main downsides of LHR are that it's enormous, often massively busy and can be somewhat confusing to figure out (watch some YouTube videos in advance for help). As for prices, try Google Flights or Kayak and set them to inform you when prices change, although as Globaliser and FlyerTalker mentioned, there's no perfect system on when the cheapest flights will appear. For my most recent trips, some international flights turned out to have the lowest price seven months in advance--others, two weeks. Finally--don't fly in the same day as the cruise to hopefully make sure you don't miss the boat.

Edited August 2 by taxatty

[Dancer Bob]

I just looked at airfare to Dubai for a repositioning cruise, I did the same one a year ago. The airfare was $100 less than I paid, almost two years ago now.

And I just booked a flight to France, the airfare portion was $190- the rest was all taxes which one government agency or another charges. But the total came out to about what I normally pay (varies depending exactly which airport and dates, I have some flexibility to choose).

Edited August 6 by Dancer Bob

[FlyerTalker]

9 hours ago, Dancer Bob said:

I just looked at airfare to Dubai for a repositioning cruise, I did the same one a year ago. The airfare was $100 less than I paid, almost two years ago now.

 

Hope that you also checked out the pricing to Abu Dhabi (AUH), which is often significantly less expensive than into Dubai (DXB).  And you have easy transport into Dubai, at very reasonable pricing.

 

9 hours ago, Dancer Bob said:

And I just booked a flight to France, the airfare portion was $190- the rest was all taxes which one government agency or another charges. But the total came out to about what I normally pay (varies depending exactly which airport and dates, I have some flexibility to choose).

 

If you do a deep dive into those "taxes and fees", you will often find huge airline surcharges on a low base fare.  Reasons are that base fares are taxable, while may of those surcharges are not subject to govt taxes, and thus are pure payments to the airline involved.

 

I've seen transatlantic pricing where the actual "fare" was sub-$100, but surcharges were five to six times that.

 

 

[Dancer Bob]

I have no idea how much of all the itemised extras the airlines keep for themselves as payment for acting as tax collectors, or how long they get to keep the cash as working capital. I'm sure the accountants have been creative in making other hidden subsidies as well.

I've looked at AUH, if only to see just how much of an aggravation the bus transfer is. And cost/convenience, non-stop versus a six-hour connection. But anyway, it's not confirmed whether the repositioning will be around Africa or not, I'm just checking feasibility.

[FlyerTalker]

44 minutes ago, Dancer Bob said:

I've looked at AUH, if only to see just how much of an aggravation the bus transfer is. And cost/convenience, non-stop versus a six-hour connection. But anyway, it's not confirmed whether the repositioning will be around Africa or not, I'm just checking feasibility.

 

Don't bother with the bus transfers, as they primarily serve the locals. For example, the Etihad bus operates from AUH to a shopping center - and you still need a taxi to your hotel.

 

I've regularly just gotten a Mercedes van "Airport Taxi" outside baggage claim at AUH and the cost to the Dubai Mall area has been about $65-75.  To your hotel front door, no hassle.  And when I am saving many hundreds per person for air, that's a small price.

 

 

[Blue Eyes]

On 8/2/2024 at 6:23 PM, taxatty said:

If you're a reasonable driving distance from ATL, it could be best to do so and fly nonstop from there. If you're not, consider leaving at least 2 hours between your domestic and international flights (especially if you have or can get airport lounge access), or possibly stay overnight in ATL or JFK and then fly to London the next day. As for LHR v. LGW, LHR generally has more flights to and from the US and is closer to London, but both work. The main downsides of LHR are that it's enormous, often massively busy and can be somewhat confusing to figure out (watch some YouTube videos in advance for help). As for prices, try Google Flights or Kayak and set them to inform you when prices change, although as Globaliser and FlyerTalker mentioned, there's no perfect system on when the cheapest flights will appear. For my most recent trips, some international flights turned out to have the lowest price seven months in advance--others, two weeks. Finally--don't fly in the same day as the cruise to hopefully make sure you don't miss the boat.

Thanks…we’re flying in 3 days early to see some of the London flights…the Jacksonville/JFK connections are good….i guess we are going to go ahead and book as I can’t imagine they will come down significantly….it feels like too early but I guess getting it out of the way is best and just not look at prices afterwards…