What happened to all the Purveyors of Doom?

[TEXASMUNK]

Last year, these folks were telling us the hurricanes were going to be worse and more of them. They blamed everything possible on the hurricanes that had come and would come.

 

If must be depressing to purvey doom and have the world keep spinning on its axis, people keep cruising, and folks getting on with their lives.

 

Of course, they will all come back and say, this year was only a pause, wait until you see how bad it is going to be next year!!!!

[wrp96]

Last year, these folks were telling us the hurricanes were going to be worse and more of them. They blamed everything possible on the hurricanes that had come and would come.

 

If must be depressing to purvey doom and have the world keep spinning on its axis, people keep cruising, and folks getting on with their lives.

 

Of course, they will all come back and say, this year was only a pause, wait until you see how bad it is going to be next year!!!!

 

No, they'll just say that the Pacific Coast is getting it bad instead.:rolleyes:

[xpcdoojk]

Last year, these folks were telling us the hurricanes were going to be worse and more of them. They blamed everything possible on the hurricanes that had come and would come.

 

If must be depressing to purvey doom and have the world keep spinning on its axis, people keep cruising, and folks getting on with their lives.

 

Of course, they will all come back and say, this year was only a pause, wait until you see how bad it is going to be next year!!!!

 

Anyone who tells you the weather 6 months from now is more than likely going to be wrong more times than not. That is why I just love TV news. They live in a maroon colored world! :D

 

jc

[gadaboutgal]

We, also, need to remember that the hurricane season has a few more months to go. It's not really the quantity, but the magnitude of hurricane that matters most.

[yarlenna]

I am from Fl and believe that the last few years have been hard. The doom is our trying to get insurance. It will be our time again. I just hope it is not soon.

[brn2crz]

No...Actually its also Quanity...Part of the hype...The many more Hurricanes we are suppossed to be having..

I was thinking the same thing Jim...Especially after we got through August with only one little storm.Seems like El Nino has over Taken La nina ...Or vise versa:D ...

Anyway...It only goes to show you who is really in control...

Regardless of the reason..I am sooooooo glad the gas prices have come down,not that they can't hold us hostage any more...

211 today:p

[AFT_LOVER]

but I have played one on TV. Basically a pretty face that can read the teleprompter. I am looking at a small tv off to the side to see where I am pointing to since the screen behind me on that you are watching on TV is actually a BLUE sheet......

 

But with a friend who is a NOAA weatherman & calls all storm warnings for Ohio from Burke Lakefront Airport. I love to go in his office & play weatherlady & predict storms & be right quite a few times. This year has been real fun, like a 7 year old genius has created a big blower on the East Coast that refuses hurricanes that made it to Cat 3 from coming ashore. North than East to Iceland maybe. But cold water kills them.

 

Even my African Grey Congo parrot who is crazy about hurricanes watches Weather Channel when we are not home & we come back to him cheering since a new TS has shown or it is now a hurricane so he roots it on. When a storm happens outside we hear it is MY HURRICANE!

 

So far USA has lucked out. La Nina is Pacific bound this year thus the 5 major hurricanes to poor Cabo San Lucas. So 10/15 member cruise on Freedom may have some surprises for us after we are out to Grand Cayman & a hurricane decides to enter the Gulf, as we had in 2001 on Grand Princess. What a ride, getting thrown out of bed, smashing glass on 7th deck from waves, folks told to get in hallways. FUN! But Freedom is loads bigger, so it will be glass........

[piercetc4]

we feel blessed that so far there have not been any hurricanes in the gulf- and pray that the rest of the hurricanes that crop up do not come near land - ours , yours, or theirs...................lol

[terri23]

knock on wood :)

[dfishner]

I live in Florida and had the side of my house blown down in one of those hurricanes so I take it very seriously. There is no way to predict them and we still have a few months left. This year knock on wood it has been good so far but we are far from hurricane season being over. As someone said in the earlier post insurance after the aftermath that we have been through is almost impossible to find. I rather be on the side of doom and gloom and hope we have a mild season

[AdGuyMike]

Last year, these folks were telling us the hurricanes were going to be worse and more of them. They blamed everything possible on the hurricanes that had come and would come.......

 

Of course, they will all come back and say, this year was only a pause, wait until you see how bad it is going to be next year!!!!

I agree with you, Jim. Every year Dr. Gray comes out with his predictions for the upcoming hurricane season. And while I have great respect for the research and scientific effort that goes into meteorology, I think the annual number projection(example 18 named storms / 9 to make landfall/ 3 to hit mainland US etc...) is a meaningless public statistic. All it basically does is create fear and restlessness for a regional event that is impossible to predict.

 

The people in my office that feed off doom and gloom preditions drive me crazy with this yearly announcement. True, if you live in an area that is prone to hurricane strikes, you must always be prepared to keep your home and family safe. Keep stocked with what you'll need to survive the aftermath of a storm that will leave you in primative conditions for several days and possibly weeks.

 

What would be a significant prediction would be "where and when." In other words, tell us which weekend a hurricane will strike and we'll be sure to not schedule an important event like a wedding. Hotels and conventions would be blacked out during that small window. Millions of dollars would be saved and few would be inconvenienced. What's more, insurance companies can go about selling policies in one area of a state and put a freeze on another.

 

But alas it's an impossible task and to reitterate, without the "where and when", it's meaningless.

 

It's like predicting any future yet known event... For example:

* I predict the northern section of the United States will experience some very,very cold temperatures this winter. Some areas of the country will experience major amounts of snowfall and possible blizzard conditions! Even ice storms!!! Want to know which week and where this will occur? Sorry. Can't tell ya.

 

* I predict there will be some pretty interesting upsets in this years NFL schedule. Want to know which teams and which games? Sorry. Can't tell ya.

 

* My chinese fortune cookie told me last week I should be wary of well intentioned strangers. My waiter could not give me any more specifics as to whom the cookie was reffering to.

 

* I predict the numbers 18 - 23 - 27 - 32 - 39 - 42 will be picked in the next 18 months to win a big Mega Lotto jackpot. Wanna know which state and which day?

I have no idea.

 

* Finally, I predict that the vast majority of CCers taking a cruise in the next year will have the time of their lives. THIS I can almost guarantee and I wish I was going on every single one of them with you. Save me chair by the pool.

 

Happy Cruising

Michael

[MrPete]

The Earth has been spinning 4.5 to 6 billion years, and this year was to be the bad hurricane year. :confused:

 

They also say it's gonna be a cold winter (I think I hear this every year). Maybe someone just wants me to buy a shovel. :confused:

[JanineM]

I firmly believe that weather is God's little joke ... we will never be able to control it, and anytime we think we have it figured out, He'll throw in an El Nino or La Nina!!!

;)

[Philly Steve]

Please, please, please don't put the "whammy" on us with this thread!

[AdGuyMike]

Please, please, please don't put the "whammy" on us with this thread!

 

What's the "whammy?"

[MrsPete]

Bite your tounge!

 

We're cruising in about six weeks, and I'm still nervous about possible hurricane problems! Don't jinx us. They could still pop up at any time.

[dougp26364]

Last year, these folks were telling us the hurricanes were going to be worse and more of them. They blamed everything possible on the hurricanes that had come and would come.

 

If must be depressing to purvey doom and have the world keep spinning on its axis, people keep cruising, and folks getting on with their lives.

 

Of course, they will all come back and say, this year was only a pause, wait until you see how bad it is going to be next year!!!!

 

Once upon a time I decided to build a house on top of the hill. The doom and gloom crowd said, "You can't do that. Haven't you heard about mud slide?"

 

So I said maybe I'll build the house at the bottom of the hill and then they said, "But that's where all the mud goes."

 

There are always those who will see the worst and maybe they even hope for the worst. If they don't get it, they'll blame it on something else and start crying the sky is falling over something different. They have very short term memory when it comes to how often they miss the mark as compared to the few times they get it right. When they do actually guess correctly, it makes headline news.

[AdGuyMike]

And here's the revised prediction effective 9/01/06:

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER 2006 AND SEASONAL UPDATE THROUGH AUGUST

 

Following below-average activity in August, we are significantly reducing our seasonal forecast. We expect slightly above-average activity in September and that October will likely have below-average activity. We now predict that total seasonal activity will be slightly below the long-term average.

(as of 1 September 2006)

By Philip J. Klotzbach

and William M. Gray

with special assistance from William Thorson

[/url]

 

 

This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available via the World Wide Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts

Emily Wilmsen, Colorado State University Media Representative, (970-491-6432) is available to answer various questions about this forecast

Department of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, CO 80523

[critterchick]

What's the "whammy?"

 

A whammy is a jinx.

 

And I would never say "neener, neener" to Mother Nature!:eek:

[brn2crz]

Just to clarify..at least my perspective..

 

I live on the Texas Gulf Coast...And have my whole life..I don't take these things lightly..I have been through..Buela,Camille,Ceila,Allen,Alica,Brett,Allsion,Rita and many other lesser know tropical systems ...Not to mention going through the aftermath of Katrina...here in Texas..

 

So..I know storms..and respect them immensely

 

But when you get all these folks...talking about global warming...and the end of times with all these major storms..And how we can expect monster storms every year lasting from April -Dec...And the oil companies and insurance companies (just try to get decent flood insurance in texas...or have a insurance company tell you that your home which is a complete loss is not covered because its not Hurricane damage,or wind damage..Its flood damage..What the heck caused the flood?? ) or the contractors or builders in this area who have tripled in some cases the price of labor..and lumber...Just because there might be a lot of storms...

 

These things are cyclical...we will have bad years,and not so bad years..But I don't think anyone has yet figured out how to determine when that will happen..

 

My opinion only...Your mileage may very..:)

[AdGuyMike]

 

These things are cyclical...we will have bad years,and not so bad years..But I don't think anyone has yet figured out how to determine when that will happen..

 

Exactly the point of this thread. The where and when is what matters and nobody is able to figure that out. All that a seasonal prediction does is feed into the "culture of fear" that our country is developing.

 

Now we even gotta fear spinach.

[later]

We still have a good 30 days of the peak hurricane season to go.

[AdGuyMike]

We still have a good 30 days of the peak hurricane season to go.

This is true and let's cross our fingers that no storm develops to cause harm to any country or people anywhere.

 

Hurricane Wilma as I recall struck here in South Florida rather late in the season @ October 24th. That whole experience really sucked.. I mean blew..I mean,...ah just forget it. :mad: