Tropical Depression 8 now ALIVE

[emerald777]

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that my 4 night on the Majesty will turn into a 6-7 nighter!!

[FIRELT5]

Whats a floater??? Please educate!

 

Dedicated Satelite images updated every 30 minutes for this system.

 

 

NOAA also has a research plane enroute to this location so we should have a

some more info and better future guidance on intensification and future direction :)

[skyking]

Dedicated Satelite images updated every 30 minutes for this system.

 

 

NOAA also has a research plane enroute to this location so we should have a

some more info and better future guidance on intensification and future direction :)

 

Cool....Thanks for the updates, we are watching CLOSELY!

[gnparend]

Current forecast from local weather here says TD8 will be north of St Thomas on Monday with 65 MPH winds a TS . The NHC models agree CURRENTLY with that prediction. So if they are right for a change the people in Bermuda have the next threat and Caribbean looks good. BUT keep watching.

[Rancher Dave]

TS Humberto is entering Texas so should not reverse itself although the Texans don't need anymore rain.

 

Gotta love living in Texas. Woke up this morning to some rain at home, now we are watching as Tropical Storm Humberto hits down the road in Galveston with a slight possibility it could strengthen into a hurricane before hitting.

 

Last storm that popped up this quick floated around Texas and Louisiana and then came back to Houston flooding many homes and the Texas Medical Center...so althought it is only a slow moving TS, we could be in for quite a mess here.

[lovetocruise99]

Does anyone think this will affect AOS leaving from San Juan on Sunday? Hopefully, we'll be out of there before it comes close enough to be a factor.

Any thoughts?

[FIRELT5]

Does anyone think this will affect AOS leaving from San Juan on Sunday? Hopefully, we'll be out of there before it comes close enough to be a factor.

Any thoughts?

 

Latest Discussion From NWS @ SJU

 

 

000

FXCA62 TJSJ 122041

AFDSJU

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

441 PM AST WED SEP 12 2007

 

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CUBA AND HIGH

PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS...CAUSED SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A

TROUGH LIES EAST-WEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT

WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

 

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC

WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND NEAR 15 NORTH 40 WEST. THE LOW

MOVES IN A WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN

DEEPENS TO THE NORTH.

 

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG CONVECTION WILL DIE OUT QUICKLY AFTER

SUNSET LEAVING MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW AND SOMEWHAT DRY CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER EIGHT IS AT 13.2 NORTH 44.6 WEST MOVING

12 MPH TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL BECOME A

TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.

 

&&

 

.DISCUSSION...STRONG CONVECTION BROUGHT HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO

AGUADA AND POSSIBLY A NUMBER OF OTHER AREAS IN WESTERN PUERTO

RICO. THIS ALL BECAUSE OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...A LITTLE

DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR. AREAS OF MODEST

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

BRINGING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. DAYTIME HEATING MAY BRING

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM

FLOODING...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THE

NORTH COAST TOMORROW DUE TO WINDS WITH A LITTLE MORE NORTH

COMPONENT...BUT WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY

AND TEMPERATURES THERE MAY RISE AGAIN THERE.

 

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC...NUMBER EIGHT...HAS

BECOME STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS

POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT AND

APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 8 AM SATURDAY. CURRENT PROJECTED

TRAJECTORY FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A

PATH THAT WOULD PULL IT NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN

ISLANDS...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY.

ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY NOT

AND EXPECT TO HAVE SOME EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LOCAL

AREA...LIKELY IN 6 TO 8 DAYS.

 

&&

 

.AVIATION...VERY STRONG CONVECTION TOPPED 60 THOUSAND FEET THIS

AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND

FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS INTENSE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION

WILL NOT AFFECT AVIATION IN THE LOCAL AREA OR TOWARD MIAMI IN THE

NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF FLORIDA

COULD AFFECT FLIGHTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

 

 

&&

 

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AND SHOULD

BE GENERALLY BENIGN. MARINERS SHOULD KEEP TRACK OF THE TROPICAL

SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC AS IT DRAWS NEARER.

 

 

&&

 

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 78 88 78 88 / 20 40 30 30

STT 80 87 80 87 / 20 40 40 40

 

&&

 

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PR...NONE.

VI...NONE.

&&

 

$$

 

93/12/

[FIRELT5]

Current forecast from local weather here says TD8 will be north of St Thomas on Monday with 65 MPH winds a TS . The NHC models agree CURRENTLY with that prediction. So if they are right for a change the people in Bermuda have the next threat and Caribbean looks good. BUT keep watching.

 

1200 utc run of the ECMWF is the only model that references this at 240hrs

for a position near BDA on 9/22. Grossly inaccurate at best.

[FIRELT5]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/08L.NONAME/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

[FIRELT5]

All I can say is IT'S GONNA BE CLOSE....It looks like it starting to turn a little to the North away from the Islands we are visiting...If it continues to make that north turn I think we will be ok:)

 

Where are you leaving from and what is your Itin ????

[skyking]

Where are you leaving from and what is your Itin ????

 

We leave Port Canaveral on Sunday to the Eastern Caribbean...Im not worried about cocoacay on Monday, but for sure open since we are supposed to be in St Thomas on Wed and St Marteen on Thursday..Being open is key at this point:)

[FIRELT5]

We leave Port Canaveral on Sunday to the Eastern Caribbean...Im not worried about cocoacay on Monday, but for sure open since we are supposed to be in St Thomas on Wed and St Marteen on Thursday..Being open is key at this point:)

 

We were on the EOS Aft Deck 10 and watched the MOS enter St. Thomas.

This was on 8/22/07. Captured some great Pic's

[skyking]

We were on the EOS Aft Deck 10 and watched the MOS enter St. Thomas.

This was on 8/22/07. Captured some great Pic's

 

Awwwww....As you can tell from my signature I LOVE THE MARINER:)

[BecciBoo]

We are all watching breathlessly, Liberty leaving Saturday scheduled for St Maarten and San Juan, Labadee, we can only hope she turns north or blows on through as TS. In any event, "Fasten your seat belts,it's going to be a bumpy ride." as Bette Davis once said! LOL Info from the interview with Cpt Wright was fantastic. Thanks. Keeping our fingers crossed with you guys. Not scared of the hurrican just hate to miss our Lord Sheffield sailing on Tues. in St Maarten:(

[FIRELT5]

We are all watching breathlessly, Liberty leaving Saturday scheduled for St Maarten and San Juan, Labadee, we can only hope she turns north or blows on through as TS. In any event, "Fasten your seat belts,it's going to be a bumpy ride." as Bette Davis once said! LOL Info from the interview with Cpt Wright was fantastic. Thanks. Keeping our fingers crossed with you guys. Not scared of the hurrican just hate to miss our Lord Sheffield sailing on Tues. in St Maarten:(

 

Think Positive :)

[SherriZ366]

Hope this thing turns into a fish (ie goes out to sea) and that it misses all islands.

[Reijo]

Another thing I just looked at is this storm could be affecting FL when we are supposed to return, so maybe an extra day or two?

 

I hope not............my husband and I along with eight family members are supposed to be on the 23rd sailing. We've been watching this storm. Wouldn't you know. It's been FAIRLY quiet so far this year but I've been expecting something that would create a "scare" before we sail.

 

Let's hope everything works out okay.:p

[Reijo]

I think this may be our fault. We have tried to take our honeymoon for 3 years now... our first (the day after our actual wedding) was cancelled due to Hurricane Jeanne flooding our resort in the Bahamas. Then, the following year my DH was deployed for Hurricane Katrina. Last year, we didn't even try...

 

Now darn it! I'm going on this trip come he!! or high water. Arrrrrrgh! I'll be the one on the pier blowing out towards the ocean trying to blow the storm back towards Africa... I'm full of hot air :p

 

All in all though... I'll be happy as long as we can fly into Orlando and get on the ship on Sunday... the rest is just gravy. I'm sure a western will be just fine.

 

Bless you hearts. I hope that you finally get to take your honeymoon!:)

[Boilerup]

We're on Liberty the 15th as well - not much we can do about this but hope all goes well. At worst we hope only some rough seas, and perhaps an itinerary change. Then again, as someone said earlier, I'd be happy if they dropped anchor and we enjoyed the ship for seven days!

 

Good luck everyone....

[jackdiamond]

I believe that it will become Ingrid shortly; and, then remain a tropical storm for a few days. However, by the end of the week or early next week it will probably become a huricane. If it does not make a sharp right turn to the north east Atlantic, it will become a major storm.

[FIRELT5]

000

Wtnt43 Knhc 130844

Tcdat3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 4

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007

500 Am Edt Thu Sep 13 2007

 

Satellite Images And Microwave Data Indicate That The Cloud Pattern

Has Not Become Any Better Organized During The Past Few Hours And

The Low-level Center Is Located To The North Of A Large Circular

Area Of Deep Convection. Initial Intensity Remains At 30 Knots. The

Depression Still Has The Opportunity To Become A Tropical Storm

Since The Shear Is Expected To Decrease In The Next Day Or So.

Thereafter...all Global Models Forecast Strong Upper-level

Westerlies Over The Eastern Caribbean And The Adjacent Atlantic

Waters Associated With A Stronger Than Normal Upper-level Trough.

This Pattern Is Likely To Inhibit The Depression From

Strengthening Significantly. Weakening Is Indicated By The End Of

The Forecast Period As The Cyclone Approaches The Area Well To The

Northeast Of The Leeward Islands Where The Shear Is Expected To Be

Large.

 

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Or 295 Degrees At

9 Knots Around A Weak Mid-level High Pressure System. Since Steering

Currents Are Forecast To Further Weaken...the Depression Is

Expected To Decrease In Forward Speed During The Next 12 To 24

Hours. The Cyclone Should Then Continue On This General Slow

West-northwest Track Through 5 Days. Track Gui Dace Is In Good

Agreement Bringing The Cyclone On A Slow West-northwest Motion And

Weakening. The Uk And Ecmwf Models Keep The Cyclone A Little Bit

Longer But This Is Not Realistic Given The Anticipated Highly

Unfavorable Upper-level Environment Ahead Of The Cyclone.

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 13/0900z 13.9n 47.5w 30 Kt

12hr Vt 13/1800z 14.5n 48.8w 35 Kt

24hr Vt 14/0600z 14.8n 49.6w 40 Kt

36hr Vt 14/1800z 15.0n 50.5w 45 Kt

48hr Vt 15/0600z 15.5n 51.5w 45 Kt

72hr Vt 16/0600z 16.5n 54.0w 45 Kt

96hr Vt 17/0600z 17.5n 57.0w 40 Kt

120hr Vt 18/0600z 19.0n 60.0w 35 Kt

[FIRELT5]

000

Fxca62 Tjsj 130923

Afdsju

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan Pr

523 Am Ast Thu Sep 13 2007

 

Synopsis...at Upper Levels...a Low Pressure Center Remains South Of

Cuba This Morning. Another Low Pressure Center Remains Well North Of

Puerto Rico. At The Same Time A High Pressure Is Over The Lesser

Antilles. These Features Are Producing A South Southwest Wind Flow

Across The Region. This Flow Is Expected To Becomes More Westerly On

Friday As The Low South Of Cuba Moves To The North Over The

Atlantic...and The Low Well North Of Puerto Rico Moves To The

East.

 

At Mid Levels...high Pressure Remains North Of Bahamas. Another High

Pressure Remains Across The Western Atlantic With A Weak Low To The

Northeast Of The Local Region. An East Northeast Wind Flow Prevail

Over The Local Islands At These Levels.

 

At Lower Levels...a Surface High Pressure Remains Centered Well

North Of The Local Islands Around 32 North 62 West This Morning.

This Feature Will Continue To Produce An East Northeast Trade Wind

Flow Over The Local Islands Today. Winds Will Becomes More From

The East Tonight And Tomorrow.

 

.discussion...the Doppler Weather Radar Indicated Scattered Showers

Mainly Across The Regional Coastal Waters Overnight And Early In The

Morning. Few Of These Showers Affected The Northern And Eastern

Sections Of Puerto Rico...vieques...culebra And The U.s. Virgin

Islands. However The Rainfall Accumulations Associated With This

Activity Was Minimal. The Gfs Model Guidance Suggests Mostly Dry Air

Across The Region Until At Least Early Tonight. Thus...this Afternoon

Activity Will Be Locally Induced By The Combination Of The Available

Low Level Moisture...diurnal Heating And Local Terrain Effects.

These Ingredients Will Produce Some Strong Convection Over The

Interior And Western Sections Of Puerto Rico. Some Urban And Small

Stream Flooding Are Possible. The Afternoon Activity Will Diminish

Or Dissipate Rapidly After Sunset. A Weak Surface To Mid Level

Trough Will Approach To The Local Islands Late Tonight And Tomorrow

Producing A Slight Increase In Low Level Moisture Over The

Region.

 

Tropical Depression Number Eight Will Continue To Move To The West

Northwest During The Next 24 Hours. It Is Possible That It Will

Become A Tropical Storm Today. Early Cycle Track Guidance On

Tropical Depression Eight Show Good Agreement On A Northwest Track

During The Next 120 Hours. The Official Current Projected Trajectory

From National Hurricane Center Takes The System On A West Northwest

Path...passing Well Northeast Of The U.s. Virgin Islands And

Puerto Rico In Five Or Six Day.

 

&&

 

.preliminary Point Temps/pops...

Sju 88 79 91 79 / 30 30 40 20

Stt 89 81 87 81 / 40 40 40 40

 

&&

 

.sju Watches/warnings/advisories...

Pr...none.

Vi...none.

&&

 

$$

 

12/72

[BecciBoo]

They don't seem to be that worried in St Maarten:

Monday

Chance of Rain. Partly Cloudy. High: 87° F. / 31° C. Wind ESE 6 mph. / 10 km/h. Chance of precipitation 20%. Monday Night

Partly Cloudy. Low: 78° F. / 26° C. Wind ENE 6 mph. / 10 km/h. Tuesday

Chance of a Thunderstorm. Partly Cloudy. High: 86° F. / 30° C. Wind ENE 8 mph. / 14 km/h. Chance of precipitation 20%. Tuesday Night

Scattered Clouds. Low: 77° F. / 25° C. Wind NE 8 mph. / 14 km/h. Wednesday

Scattered Clouds. High: 86° F. / 30° C. Wind light.

 

There are question marks on Monday and Tuesday, but no change in their forecast which looks pretty good!! Keep thinking positive!:D

[kruisin' kim]

I feel much better today bout it than I did yesterday....keep all this positive thinking going and we'll blow this thing right outta there!!!!

Kim

[FIRELT5]

000

Wtnt33 Knhc 131433

Tcpat3

Bulletin

Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al082007

1100 Am Ast Thu Sep 13 2007

 

...disorganized Tropical Depression Eight Continuing

West-northwestward...

 

At 1100 Am Ast...1500z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Eight Was

Located Near Latitude 13.9 North...longitude 48.0 West Or About 895

Miles...1440 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles.

 

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 8 Mph...13

Km/hr. A Continued Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected

During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Although Upper Levels Have Become Less Favorable For

Development...the Depression Still Has The Chance To Become A

Tropical Storm During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb...29.71 Inches.

 

Repeating The 1100 Am Ast Position...13.9 N...48.0 W. Movement

Toward...west-northwest Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35

Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

500 Pm Ast.

 

$$

Forecaster Roberts/franklin