Recession Fears, Seabourn & Luxury Cruising

[cruiseyguy]

Seabourn, as with several other luxury lines, has bet heavily on the future of luxury cruising. If retiring "Baby Boomers" are unable to sell their real estate or stock investments at previously hoped-for profits, how will this affect Seabourn and other lines in the near and middle future? I'm assuming 2008 looks good since those plans were made by passengers before the current economic crisis erupted. What about 2009-2010, when the new ships become available? Will anyone on this board have second thoughts about luxury cruises if we enter an economic recession?

[LaPaloma]

I'm sure the luxury cruise lines have some concerns, but I think by 2009 and 2010 things will look a lot better. I have some stocks and some bonds--so the stocks go down--the bonds go up--I'm actually a little ahead of the game right now. We will not stop cruising! The Fed did a good thing today 3/4 drop--market rebounded pretty good! I don't things are quite as bad as the press would have us think--lots of people are working and spending money--slowing down a little, but this to will pass! Don

[Iamboatman]

Most of the credit issues are related to loans which those that cruise on Seabourn probably do not have (or if they do it is a very limited number). I don't see that having much impact.

 

The effect of the stock market is yet to be seen. The volatility is, for now, short term while planning for cruises is generally long term. With a diverse portfolio, bonds may become higher in value and therefore soften the stock market issues...as will successful buying opportunities.

 

I think you are going to see some people waiting before booking the less exotic cruises on non-holiday/summer times, but the ones with "hot" itineraries or during high seasons will still be heavily booked early on.

 

Personally, there hasn't been one cancellation or "I think I'll wait for a while" comment made to me. In fact, some clients are wondering if it might be a good time to consider taking an extra cruise on short notice...if any are then available!:)

[diebroke]

I am fairly pessimistic about the US economy and the value of the US dollar compared to most other curriencies through 2009. I think it will get a lot worse. We may even see corporate bonds lose value as some default. (You should also know that you could have made a lot of money if you had followed the opposite of my stock market advice over the years.)

 

I think this will have a big impact on the low end and middle class cruises and a small impact on high end, luxury cruises. Perhaps the loss of Americans can be made up by other nationalities.

 

European cruises will likely get a lot more expensive for Americans which may impact their choice of itineraries.

 

Having said all that, the state of the economy will not likely affect my travel or Seabourn cruise plans but I might have to die a little sooner than is currently reflected in my financial plan.

[quepaquete]

I am fairly pessimistic about the US economy and the value of the US dollar compared to most other curriencies through 2009. I think it will get a lot worse. We may even see corporate bonds lose value as some default. (You should also know that you could have made a lot of money if you had followed the opposite of my stock market advice over the years.)

 

I think this will have a big impact on the low end and middle class cruises and a small impact on high end, luxury cruises. Perhaps the loss of Americans can be made up by other nationalities.

 

European cruises will likely get a lot more expensive for Americans which may impact their choice of itineraries.

 

I must admit that I feel the same as diebroke.

 

There many other factors to consider beside the mortgage loans defaults. Since this a cruise critic forum and not a financial forum I won't go into details.

 

Diebroke, if you plan accordingly you many not have to die sooner ;), as this may present opportunities for more cruising. Think, discounts!

[diebroke]

Diebroke, if you plan accordingly you many not have to die sooner ;), as this may present opportunities for more cruising. Think, discounts!

 

Thanks for the advice.

Would it still be a luxury cruise if it were preceded by "discount"?

(I thought discount luxury cruise was an oxymoron.)

[Iamboatman]

Obviously you are not from the Northeast. ;) We "never" pay full price. Luxury without a discount is almost sacrilege. (That's how we get more luxury!) :D

[diebroke]

Obviously you are not from the Northeast. ;) We "never" pay full price.

 

True although I lived in New Jersey for 10 years and really miss my native neighbor who did all my shopping for me.

I hate to offend the merchant by offering anything less than full price. I have also bought a lot of wet land and a few bridges.

I do confess to using LuxuryLink auctions.

 

Luxury without a discount is almost sacrilege. (That's how we get more luxury!) :D

 

Thanks. You and quepaquete have added years to my planned lifetime.

[Iamboatman]

Which is better: Being your financial planner or your travel planner???:D

[diebroke]

Which is better: Being your financial planner or your travel planner???:D

 

Not sure. Both are gone a lot on luxury cruises.

Hope they got a discount.

[Iamboatman]

Not sure. Both are gone a lot on luxury cruises.

Hope they got a discount.

 

Now I understand. :confused: You are "diebroke" and they are cruising with they money you have paid them.:eek:

[SantaAna,CA]

Having said all that, the state of the economy will not likely affect my travel or Seabourn cruise plans but I might have to die a little sooner than is currently reflected in my financial plan.

 

As I can't seem to (1) decide where and when to cruise next or (2) live without Seabourn, I am thinking my retirement plan might be along the lines of "diebrokes" solution.....

 

Yes I'm afraid. However that doesn't seem to stop me from booking cruises.....

 

Jane

[TLCOhio]

Seabourn, as with several other luxury lines, has bet heavily on the future of luxury cruising. If retiring "Baby Boomers" are unable to sell their real estate or stock investments at previously hoped-for profits, how will this affect Seabourn and other lines in the near and middle future? I'm assuming 2008 looks good since those plans were made by passengers before the current economic crisis erupted. What about 2009-2010, when the new ships become available? Will anyone on this board have second thoughts about luxury cruises if we enter an economic recession?

 

Lots of good and interesting thoughts, points and issues covered in this thread. We're getting ready to try Crystal after loving Seabourn on our first cruise for the Greek Isles-Turkish Coast in 2006.

 

With Crystal, they just had one of the their two ships depart on its annual "WORLD CRUISE". For this huge 100+ day journey from LA to London, they have 342 cabins used for an all-time high customer demand. Crystal had 270 full World Cruisers in 2007, up from 223 in 2006. That's a 53% increase over two years, even with the current economic issues and the prices going up at a decent rate over that period. The Crystal Serenity has a little over 500 cabins and most of the other spaces will be filled by those purchasing segments for shorter time periods during the overall cruise.

 

Given that for two passengers on this cruise, you would have to put in a minimum of $100K to do this Crystal World Cruise, there are clearly different levels in the current market conditions. Some are doing better than others. I doubt that many on this World Cruise are paying excessively high sub-prime interest rates on their home.

 

THANKS! Terry in Ohio

[quepaquete]

Thanks. You and quepaquete have added years to my planned lifetime.

 

I never thought I could help someone extedn their life. :cool:

Glad to help!!!

[quepaquete]

Given that for two passengers on this cruise, you would have to put in a minimum of $100K to do this Crystal World Cruise, there are clearly different levels in the current market conditions. Some are doing better than others. I doubt that many on this World Cruise are paying excessively high sub-prime interest rates on their home.

 

There is always a higher level!! Some of those people do the WC on a penhouse suite every year, too. Isn't great there is something for everyone!

[TLCOhio]

There is always a higher level!! Some of those people do the WC on a penhouse suite every year, too. Isn't great there is something for everyone!

 

For those worried about variety and options, there are three different sized penthouses with verandah on this 108-day sailing. The price ranges, for two people, would be between $190,000 and $472,000. Other discounts might be available to multiple Crystal cruisers. Size varies from 403 sq. ft. to 1,345 sq. ft.

 

Regardless of price point at this penthouse level, it does include a butler and many other extras, including World Cruise Gala and overnight luxury hotel accommodations on eve of departure from Los Angeles; Pre-paid shipboard gratuities; Two exclusive shoreside gala events and eight Crystal Adventures shore excursions; Private car transfers within 100 miles of guest's home to airport, airport to ship, and back; Complimentary air program for Crystal Cruises' Air Gateway Cities; Shipboard credit of $1,000 per person, etc. I'll have to save much more to be ready for the penthouse level.

 

Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

[diebroke]

I anticipate that when the tax rebate checks created by the recently passed stimulus package arrive (May?), there will be a rush to book Seabourn cruises by U.S. residents.

Cleverly, I have borrowed against my refund check & booked my cruises in advance. Since I am not sure of the amount, I avoided round-the-world cruises in penthouse suites.

Perhaps other enlightened, U.S. based CC members should do the same.

[LaPaloma]

Our daughter lives in Boulder, and I'm sure she is planning on using our rebate checks to take her on another jaunt on Seabourn--she will spend her rebate on granola--she eats it with her Crown Royal! Don

[quepaquete]

diebroke and lapaloma, just love your good sense of humor,