Whats next?

[Mikel1733]

Fuel surcharges, luggage surcharges, surging airfare prices, cruise prices rising, cancelled flights, and now this;

 

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,348829,00.html

[caribbean dreams]

I for one, will not stop cruising, i just won't cruise during hurricane season and will leave out of ports closer to home.

 

See ya onboard:)

[redroses27]

they have been wrong before

[skylock]

Nothing new. They made that same prediction last year. And we had none.

 

They also predicted a cold hard winter and I had my heat on twice. Wore a coat 4 times.

 

But I think I am going to the virgin islands to work this summer for a few months. Should be fun.

[mr. cruiser]

they have been wrong before

They have been wrong many times before. I don't get why the media gives them any coverage.

[Caribbean Dad]

I'll believe it when I see it. If you will recall, last year was supposed to be above average as well, but it obviously didn't go as predicted. We have a condo booked in St Maarten for the last week of July, and guess what? I'm not changing it.

[mr. cruiser]

Just wait till they do predict right:rolleyes:

[orlandofl]

they have been wrong before

Don't believe the hype! It's a way for people to go out there and spend their money at Lowes and Home Depot,i bet they give money to the news media and weather people to wrongly predict the weather,how come they never predict a good season?That's what insurance is for anyway,i live in Florida and pay no mind to the forecasters.

[Cruiser from MS]

They have been wrong for several years. They also said last year would be bad and had to come back and revise their prediciton....

[Snorkel2Much]

they have been wrong before

"True-er" words were never spoken, redroses27. Their accuracy is right up there with coin flipping. :p

 

Here is the listing of these "prediction experts" previous annual seasonal forecasts, along with the actual results:

 

The first number is their annual April prediction, the second number is the actual hurricane season results

 

2002

Hurricanes - 7 - 4

Named Storms - 12 - 12

Hurricane Days - 30 - 11

Named Storm Days - 65 - 54

Hurr. Destruction Potential - 85 - 31

Intense Hurricanes - 3 - 2

Intense Hurricane Days - 6 - 2.5

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity - 125 - 80

 

2003

Hurricanes - 8 - 7

Named Storms - 12 -14

Hurricane Days - 35 - 32

Named Storm Days - 65 - 71

Hurr. Destruction Potential - 100 - 129

Intense Hurricanes - 3 - 3

Intense Hurricane Days - 8 -17

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity - 140 -173

 

2004

Hurricanes - 8 - 9

Named Storms - 14 -14

Hurricane Days - 35 - 46

Named Storm Days - 60 - 90

Intense Hurricanes - 3 - 6

Intense Hurricane Days - 8 - 22

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity - 145 - 229

 

2005

Hurricanes - 7 - 14

Named Storms - 13 - 26

Hurricane Days - 35 - 48

Named Storm Days - 65 -116

Intense Hurricanes - 3 -7

Intense Hurricane Days - 7 - 16.75

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity - 135 - 263

 

2006

Hurricanes - 9 - 5

Named Storms - 17 - 9

Hurricane Days - 45 - 20

Named Storm Days - 85 - 50

Intense Hurricanes - 5 - 2

Intense Hurricane Days - 13 - 3

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity - 195 - 85

 

2007

Hurricanes - 9 - 6

Named Storms -17 - 15

Hurricane Days – 40 - 11.25

Named Storm Days - 85 - 34.50

Intense Hurricanes - 5 - 2

Intense Hurricane Days - 11 - 5.75

Accumulated Cyclone Energy - 170 - 68

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity -185 - 97

 

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2008/april2008/apr2008.pdf

 

 

 

The methodology is called "hindcasting", and they really need to think twice before publishing these types of claims directly to the mainstream media, where the important disclaimers are always omitted.

[Ms Belvedere]

Just wait till they do predict right:rolleyes:

 

Which is bound to happen if they predict it every year. :) My MIL will read this and be convinced "this is the year", they predicted it last year and it didn't happen so it will definately be this year! And next year, and next year... Bless her heart.

[orlandofl]

Which is bound to happen if they predict it every year. :) My MIL will read this and be convinced "this is the year", they predicted it last year and it didn't happen so it will definately be this year! And next year, and next year... Bless her heart.

I go to the beach when they forecast rain and stay inside when they say sunny.

[Theresa522]

I for one, will not stop cruising, i just won't cruise during hurricane season and will leave out of ports closer to home.

 

See ya onboard:)

 

I can't agree with you more!!! :D

[fireofficer5]

Lets see, 20 fingers and toes. Right one out of 20 years.

[Mikel1733]

If you live within driving distance of a port then fuel prices, surcharges and weather are no big deal. But for those of us who have to fly and stay at hotels 1 or 2 days ahead of the cruise to insure we will get on the boat all these things start to add up.

[Caliber1]

I had to check the date on the link, thought it might have been last years forecast. :cool: :rolleyes:

[Caribbean Dad]

I had to check the date on the link, thought it might have been last years forecast. :cool: :rolleyes:

 

Last couple of years do look kinda similar.

 

I think I know how they come up with their predictions. I think they borrow the state's lotto tumbler and just draw the numbers. :eek:

 

:D :D :D

[tbjl24]

Don't believe the hype! It's a way for people to go out there and spend their money at Lowes and Home Depot,i bet they give money to the news media and weather people to wrongly predict the weather,how come they never predict a good season?That's what insurance is for anyway,i live in Florida and pay no mind to the forecasters.

 

While I do agree the forecasting is mediocre at best, it is VERY important to be prepared for these storms. I hardly think it is a ploy to get "people to go out there and spend their money at Lowes and Home Depot".

 

After all, once you buy plywood once for your windows, why would need to keep going back year after year????

 

You can never have enough non-perishable food and water on-hand. Especially for those times when the power goes out. Those that don't will be the ones complaining that our government failed them.

 

Public Service Announcement - over.

[orlandofl]

If you live within driving distance of a port then fuel prices, surcharges and weather are no big deal. But for those of us who have to fly and stay at hotels 1 or 2 days ahead of the cruise to insure we will get on the boat all these things start to add up.

But some ports close to home has limited sailings,i live 20 mins away and sailing out of San Juan in a cpl weeks because of the six islands stop,which is not available in my home port.

[redroses27]

they said new england was supposed to get a big hurricane havnt seen it and dont want to

[orlandofl]

While I do agree the forecasting is mediocre at best, it is VERY important to be prepared for these storms. I hardly think it is a ploy to get "people to go out there and spend their money at Lowes and Home Depot".

 

After all, once you buy plywood once for your windows, why would need to keep going back year after year????

 

You can never have enough non-perishable food and water on-hand. Especially for those times when the power goes out. Those that don't will be the ones complaining that our government failed them.

 

Public Service Announcement - over.

Do you know how many thousands move to Florida every year?Those are the ones that targeted,go check your pantry and see how many expired canned food you have stored.

[tbjl24]

Do you know how many thousands move to Florida every year?Those are the ones that targeted,go check your pantry and see how many expired canned food you have stored.

 

 

Ha, I don't have any. I actually do start stockpiling water and food right about this time of year, every year.

 

With all those people moving to Florida every year, then it is good that they are being made aware of the dangers of hurricanes. Targeted?!?!? Come on! Call it social responsibility. Hurricanes are something you should never be unprepared for.

 

I guess most people have to learn the hard way, with your mentality.

[orlandofl]

Ha, I don't have any. I actually do start stockpiling water and food right about this time of year, every year.

 

With all those people moving to Florida every year, then it is good that they are being made aware of the dangers of hurricanes. Targeted?!?!? Come on! Call it social responsibility. Hurricanes are something you should never be unprepared for.

 

I guess most people have to learn the hard way, with your mentality.

You sound like a weatherman and what warnings are you talking about?False 90% of the time?It's like beef is bad for you and when sales are down,then it's good for you,it's all about the mighty dollar,you think the government really care about how many poor people die in this country?Look back at Katrina.You need to wake up and smell the coffee my neighbor.

[emt5084]

:confused: :confused: Weather guessers... :confused: :confused: They can't get the weather right for tomorrow. How are they ever going to figure out three months from now? I wish I had a job that I could be wrong 90 percent of the time.

[tbjl24]

You sound like a weatherman and what warnings are you talking about?False 90% of the time?It's like beef is bad for you and when sales are down,then it's good for you,it's all about the mighty dollar,you think the government really care about how many poor people die in this country?Look back at Katrina.You need to wake up and smell the coffee my neighbor.

 

False 90% of the time, but what about the 10%? You live in Orlando, so you MUST remember hurricane Charlie?!?!?! Ripped apart Punta Gorda, then through Polk county and right through Orlando/Daytona? You can still see remnants of the damage that was done when you drive down I-75.

 

I guess that was just a afternoon storm, huh?

 

That same year, 3 hurricanes made landfall in Florida. Its all I conspiracy I guess? (right :rolleyes: ).

 

What I was saying about the gov't is, it isn't(shouldn't be) their responsibility to save your butt when you haven't planned responsibly. But you are the type to be on the news after the storm blaming everyone that you can't find suitable drinking water and food. I think anyone living where hurricanes can make landfall has a responsibility to plan ahead, just like anywhere else that has natural disasters.

 

I am not a weather man, but I do pay attention when they tell me there is a storm coming. As for the predictions, I think it is important to be reminded that these storms do start forming in the next couple of months. Plenty of time to plan.