Fay

[yarlenna]

Fay is out there - though they think it will not become a hurricane.

[Host CJSKIDS]

Fay is out there - though they think it will not become a hurricane.

 

Let's hope she doesn't since the current tracking is right where I live! Looks like we're going to get a Tropical Storm on Tuesday. Tuesday is our kids first day back at school and somehow I think the kids will be thrilled if it's delayed by a day or two!

[HCW]

[TVMet]

Official forecast is for a tropical storm, but a 30% chance of a hurricane.

 

http://www.baynews9.com/images/wx/HURRICANE1.JPG?21

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

800 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008

 

...TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...

 

 

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS

ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR LATITUDE 18.6

NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...

WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT

335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

 

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL

MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR

SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE

ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER

EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

 

SHIP OBERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER

WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN

STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM

PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

 

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE

WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

 

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8

INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING

FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

[theos on the go]

Hi we were planning to leave tomorrow for Naples. We are renting a house 1 block from the water. Being from the Midwest we have not had the experience with tropical storms on land. What can we expect. Should we cancel?

 

Any help would greatly be appreciated. We are trying to decide today.

 

Thanks

 

Theos

[Scooter-n-GB]

This has the potential to affect Western Caribbean itineraries daparting from Port Canaveral, and/or FLL I would think.

[Host CJSKIDS]

Hi we were planning to leave tomorrow for Naples. We are renting a house 1 block from the water. Being from the Midwest we have not had the experience with tropical storms on land. What can we expect. Should we cancel?

 

Any help would greatly be appreciated. We are trying to decide today.

 

Thanks

 

Theos

 

We're in hurricane preparation mode here in Naples. Some of the models do project it hitting here, though the official model is going near us and hitting the panhandle. It's just too early as we need to see where it hits Cuba as that will make a huge difference. Fay is large so we will see some bad weather for it. Hurricane Charlie took this same path a few years back, but was much smaller but much stronger. We did lose power here for 3 days with Charlie so I'm not sure what to tell you.

 

Where are you renting your home? If you give me an idea I can tell you whether or not you're in the area that gets mandatory evacuations. The only thing that means is that the emergency crews (police, ambulance) would not come into that area until the storm has passed.

 

I can tell you that the weather is beautiful here today and tomorrow is supposed to be just as pretty. It's hot and humid though, typical summer weather. I really don't think there's too much to worry about. Hey, my son starts back to school on Tuesday and they're thrilled to maybe have an extra day of summer.

 

My email is User638477 at aol.com. I'll be happy to help you out if you want.

[theos on the go]

Hi CJSkids:

 

Thank you so much for your help. Yes, we are about 1 block from Tommy Bahamas about 1 block and 1/2 from gulf. We are truly in "what should we do mode now" We are bringing our 3 year old and 13 year old. We are not equipped not handle a hurricane nor big tropical storm. Any suggestions?

 

Thanks again

 

Theos

[Host CJSKIDS]

Hi CJSkids:

 

Thank you so much for your help. Yes, we are about 1 block from Tommy Bahamas about 1 block and 1/2 from gulf. We are truly in "what should we do mode now" We are bringing our 3 year old and 13 year old. We are not equipped not handle a hurricane nor big tropical storm. Any suggestions?

 

Thanks again

 

Theos

 

Theos, wow, great area to spend a vacation.

 

I'm not sure what to tell you to do. Are you flying down or driving? It's a hard thing. This could hit Cuba and fizzle out, it could simply brush by our area and we get nothing more than a great storm, it's really too far out to give you an answer. This could turn further to the west and we really end up with some strong rains and wind and nothing more. If that happens it will be really neat to watch the storm and the water. Either way, the Gulf will be a bit more rough than we usually have and the water will be stirred up a bit so it won't be crystal clear due to the weather off the coast.

 

Do you have to make your decision today? I would still pack up and plan on coming and then see what happens later on today or tomorrow morning with the projections. It would be a real shame if you canceled and we had nothing more than a strong rain storm here.

 

Pay attention to the hurricane projection sites.

Here is the official Government site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

Here is another one that I really like, Jeff Masters always seems to read the storms well in my opinion. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

 

I'll keep you up to date throughout the day and let you know what our local forecasters are saying. I'm not too worried about it, I just don't have a feeling that it's going to be all that bad. Why, I spent $26,000 putting hurricane shutters on my house so therefore we won't get a thing!!!!!

[tomko2]

http://naplesdailynews.com/news/2008/aug/15/tropical-weather-area-over-puerto-rico-expected-be/

 

Theos, here is the link to the Naples Newspaper. We were in Naples for Wilma and the area you are planning to be in was evacuated. Without any doubt there will be alot of rain in Naples and wind from this storm.

Preparing for a hurricane entails many things including: having three day supply of water for everyone in your family; gas in your car because when the power goes so does the ability to get gas; cash (ATMs and credit cards won't work); flashlights (crank models are the best); food packages (manual can opener); documents in waterproof cases, etc.

Quite honestly we went through Wilma and were without power for 11 days; next time we will be on the road and out of town before it is too late.

If you can arrange to postpone your reservation I would do it.

No sense worrying when you could go somewhere else for a week and relax.

Kathy

[theos on the go]

Thank you all for your help. We are on the edge of deciding. We are scheduled to fly down tomorrow morning so we are trying to contact the people who we are renting the house from to see if this qualifies under their cancellation policy.

 

We will be keeping our eyes on the weather this afternoon and evening to decide.

 

Again thanks for all your help.

 

Theos

[Host CJSKIDS]

http://naplesdailynews.com/news/2008/aug/15/tropical-weather-area-over-puerto-rico-expected-be/

 

Theos, here is the link to the Naples Newspaper. We were in Naples for Wilma and the area you are planning to be in was evacuated. Without any doubt there will be alot of rain in Naples and wind from this storm.

Preparing for a hurricane entails many things including: having three day supply of water for everyone in your family; gas in your car because when the power goes so does the ability to get gas; cash (ATMs and credit cards won't work); flashlights (crank models are the best); food packages (manual can opener); documents in waterproof cases, etc.

Quite honestly we went through Wilma and were without power for 11 days; next time we will be on the road and out of town before it is too late.

If you can arrange to postpone your reservation I would do it.

No sense worrying when you could go somewhere else for a week and relax.

Kathy

 

Kathy,

Are you down here now? I can't imagine 11 days without power, we were lucky and were only without it for 4 days from Wilma. At least the weather was incredibly cool then and you could deal with the lack of AC.

 

I always find the Naples News to be a tad slow with the news. Another great local site is nbc-2.com.

[tomko2]

Kathy,

Are you down here now? I can't imagine 11 days without power, we were lucky and were only without it for 4 days from Wilma. At least the weather was incredibly cool then and you could deal with the lack of AC.

 

I always find the Naples News to be a tad slow with the news. Another great local site is nbc-2.com.

 

Carolyn, we are in Ottawa now and scheduled to return Nov. 2nd (two weeks later than normal). Our condo is at the World Tennis Center on Airport and just one phase of our community had no power for 11 days -- ours of course. A tree torn out the underground wires and out-of-state crews were not allowed to work on those. Emergency services were excellent; they drove around daily seeing if anyone needed anything. We still played tennis; just had cold showers and dinner by candlelight...LOL.

Used just about every towel soaking up the water that gushed through the drain holes in the window frames. Fortunately the weather afterwards was good so we dried everything outside until we could do laundry again.

Had to go into some of the unoccupied units and clean out fridges and freezers -- nasty. Learned alot and have full respect for those storms and the emergency crews carrying out the work.

We'll be keeping a close watch on the weather news. Let's hope for the best.

Kathy

[Host CJSKIDS]

Carolyn, we are in Ottawa now and scheduled to return Nov. 2nd (two weeks later than normal). Our condo is at the World Tennis Center on Airport and just one phase of our community had no power for 11 days -- ours of course. A tree torn out the underground wires and out-of-state crews were not allowed to work on those. Emergency services were excellent; they drove around daily seeing if anyone needed anything. We still played tennis; just had cold showers and dinner by candlelight...LOL.

Used just about every towel soaking up the water that gushed through the drain holes in the window frames. Fortunately the weather afterwards was good so we dried everything outside until we could do laundry again.

Had to go into some of the unoccupied units and clean out fridges and freezers -- nasty. Learned alot and have full respect for those storms and the emergency crews carrying out the work.

We'll be keeping a close watch on the weather news. Let's hope for the best.

Kathy

 

Kathy,

I'm not far from your place, we're in Autumn Woods on Goodlette-Frank just north of Pine Ridge.

Yes, we did luck out with the weather after Wilma, it was nice and cool. It's hot as all get out right now, some nicer weather would be welcomed.

 

Collier county just had an emergency meeting at 4 pm but I missed it. I do know that they're telling us to prepare but somehow I have a feeling that it's going to not hit us only because I'm prepared.

[Missybud]

Hi Carolyn!

 

So "Camp Carolyn" will be in full swing again!? I looked at the projections and thought of you folks and what you went through with nasty Charlie and then Wilma. Hi to All! Lana

[McDebbie]

We drove over to Naples today to shop on 5th Ave! Beautiful day over and back but we did get some rain at the very tail end of Alligator Alley close to Ft Lauderdale.

 

It's hard to know what to do, if you were in an area that did not have to evacuate you could probably ride out whatever comes in but if you have to evacuate they put you in school or church shelters and it is NOT pretty. What time do you fly out tomorrow? You still have overnight to see what happens.

[Peaceful]

I live in Naples (the Moorings) as well, and am curious about your decision whether or not to come for your vacation. Having lived in Port Charlotte for Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Wilma, and the other one (whose name escapes me), these storms do require respect. What a bummer if you have to cancel. Being without power is the worst; how much we depend on our A/C! Can you postpone instead of cancel outright? Another day will give much better information on the expected path...although I watched Charley come directly at me after being projected to hit Tampa...it's unfortunately all a crap-shoot to a certain degree. Keep us informed; have you been here before?

 

All the best.

[theos on the go]

We are still in the "what should we do" category. We are to fly out of STL at 8:50 am. So we are constantly watching the weather. We will have penalties with our flight (possibly some with the house rental) but we need to take into account our safety. Not having the experience with the area nor tropical storms or hurricanes we are concerned about our family being safe. We would rather not have to deal with a full blown storm. We will let you all know what we decide.

 

Thanks for all your advice.

 

Theos

[theos on the go]

We are still in the "what should we do" category. We are to fly out of STL at 8:50 am. So we are constantly watching the weather. We will have penalties with our flight (possibly some with the house rental) but we need to take into account our safety. Not having the experience with the area nor tropical storms or hurricanes we are concerned about our family being safe. We would rather not have to deal with a full blown storm. We will let you all know what we decide.

 

Thanks for all your advice.

 

Theos

[Host CJSKIDS]

Hi Carolyn!

 

So "Camp Carolyn" will be in full swing again!? I looked at the projections and thought of you folks and what you went through with nasty Charlie and then Wilma. Hi to All! Lana

 

 

Hi Lana!!!

Camp Carolyn is no longer in full swing as the kids have outgrown me!! Courtney spent the summer in Orlando and is a junior at UCF there and Garrett leaves Friday for USF in Tampa. All we have left is Alex and he is supposed to go back to high school on Tuesday. Yes, Tuesday the day Fay is due to arrive!

 

Hurricane Watches have been issued from the Key to Bonita (right above us) and we're all ready. We now have shutters so just have to close them or roll them down. I'm just going to have a hurricane party and enjoy the ride as I don't think this is going to be much besides lots of wind and heavy rain.

 

Hope you're well!

 

xoxo

[tomko2]

Guessing that Theos has gone to Naples. Carolyn and Peaceful, will keep you in our thoughts. Both of you would likely be in the mandatory evacuation zone if Naples because the projected landfall location.

Carolyn, good thing you bought those hurricane shutters!

Latest maps seem to indicate landfall a little further north... Sarasota?

Fay certainly is moving faster than Wilma.

Kathy

[Host CJSKIDS]

Guessing that Theos has gone to Naples. Carolyn and Peaceful, will keep you in our thoughts. Both of you would likely be in the mandatory evacuation zone if Naples because the projected landfall location.

Carolyn, good thing you bought those hurricane shutters!

Latest maps seem to indicate landfall a little further north... Sarasota?

Fay certainly is moving faster than Wilma.

Kathy

 

As of last night, she was still coming so I assume they flew down. The person that they're renting the house from did get supplies in and there is a generator.

 

The 11 am advisory just changed it again and has it hitting Fort Myers, but since the winds are 105 miles from the center we're smack dab in the middle again. They had downgraded it to hit as a Tropical storm and it's now been upgraded again to a possible borderline Cat 1 or 2. I just don't think they know what the heck they're talking about!!! It's crossing cuba at the same place as Charlie but it's going to be nothing like that as Charlie was a hurricane when it hit Cuba.

 

I'm sure it will be a bit of wind and rain and that's about it. LIke I said, putting hurricane shutters in gave all of my friends insurance in their minds, we now won't get anything!

[theos on the go]

Update from Theos:

 

Well after having spent most of the evening and into the morning going back and forth on whether we should continue our vacation to Naples. We just decided that it was not meant to be so we cancelled our flight. Needless to say everyone is disappointed but we just felt that it would be better to experience Naples at another time. We were so looking forward to it . . . but maybe next year. Everyone has been so helpful. Thank you all again.

 

Theos

[Ang in Miami]

Update from Theos:

 

Well after having spent most of the evening and into the morning going back and forth on whether we should continue our vacation to Naples. We just decided that it was not meant to be so we cancelled our flight.

 

Theos

 

Smart move. I can't see why anyone would want to voluntarily throw themselves into the path of a storm.

 

I'm watching this storm very closely, too. While not in the projected path of the storm, currently, I am on the dirty side of it...and living on a boat at that! I'm heading for my hurricane hole tomorrow morning.

[tomko2]

Theos, tough decision but better a happy holiday some other time without threat of a major weather event occupying your thoughts. Hope you were able to salvage some of your costs to put towards a later holiday.

Kathy