Latest RCL stock advice from Yahoo!

[dolfandude]

Latest stock advice for RCL and Carnival.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Cruise-stocks-decline-after-apf-14075314.html

 

I disagree. I sincerely believe this is a steal!

[mgg42]

I disagree. I sincerely believe this is a steal!

 

Fine. But that is because you are basing your assumptions on emotions. You are an RCI fan. That makes you a great source of info about cruising. But it also makes you a TERRIBLE investment strategist.

[KW_cruiser]

Fine. But that is because you are basing your assumptions on emotions. You are an RCI fan. That makes you a great source of info about cruising. But it also makes you a TERRIBLE investment strategist.

 

WOW - I finally agree with investment advice given on a forum !

[DC2OC]

Fine. But that is because you are basing your assumptions on emotions. You are an RCI fan. That makes you a great source of info about cruising. But it also makes you a TERRIBLE investment strategist.

 

 

But about half of investment advisers would probably agree with him

[cruisinfanatic]

Latest stock advice for RCL and Carnival.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Cruise-stocks-decline-after-apf-14075314.html

 

I disagree. I sincerely believe this is a steal!

Based on what? Your expert annalist opinion.

I agree that many annalists are absolutely jerks. They'll downgrade a stock after it has tanked, not before.

If you do buy it has to be for the very long term. Maybe forever.

Hope you're young!

[dolfandude]

Fine. But that is because you are basing your assumptions on emotions. You are an RCI fan. That makes you a great source of info about cruising. But it also makes you a TERRIBLE investment strategist.

And you know me how?:rolleyes: My portfolio would tend to disagree with you about me being a "terrible investment strategist"!:cool:

 

But about half of investment advisers would probably agree with him

From my research, more than half.

 

Based on what? Your expert annalist opinion.

I agree that many annalists are absolutely jerks. They'll downgrade a stock after it has tanked, not before.

If you do buy it has to be for the very long term. Maybe forever.

Hope you're young!

Young enough to take some losses (like I have already) if I want to take some chances and make more (like I have already).

But isn't that textbook?

[spbflseas]

If you look back at the stock post 9/11, you would have seen the stock in the range of about $6. Once the world stabilized and people regained confidence, that $6 inestment flew as high, I believe, as about $50 since 2001. Obviously, with vacations having a correlation to the economy, the stock is taking a beating. However, I like RCL's position in a recovering economy. Why? They can put more butts on their boats per gallon (or more accurately ton) of fuel. When you look at the Voyager, Freedom and Genesis class ships, they can put more people on these boats for a similar fuel cost as some of their older generation vessels. Carnival, as the closest competitor, in my opinion, has two challenges. First, they can't put as many people on their vessels per ton of fuel. Also, Carnival has built a brand based on being a "lower cost" provider, which means they are generating less upfront revenue on their sales, and therefore need to make it up through onboard revenue.

 

With all this said, RCI has undertaken significant debt for all their new ships. As such, more negative changes in the credit market or the valuations of the dollar could wipe out any operational advantages they have in the market place.

[negc]

Just where I want to go for solid financial advice - a cruise board.:rolleyes:

[truthandkeidy]

It is truly amusing to see analyst upgrades on equities flying near the top of their trading ranges while downgrading already beaten down stocks. With RCL 77% from its 52-week high, it seems ludicrous to pull their clients out of an equity trading substantially below book. The fundamental analysis of the cruise industry reveal major headwinds, most have already been factored into the share price as the street is always 6-9 months ahead of current reality. Utilizing technical analysis (TA), however, the share price could still fall further as nearest significant support is $6.64; and even that could be taken out before its over.

 

Capacity of these mega-liners has got to come down as the precipitous fall in their profits cannot be sustained without drastic change. It is now great for us as consumers since cruising is cheaper than ever. A mega-merger betwixt these two cruise leaders (RCL, CCL) is becoming ever more possible. Investors in these behemoths would get an enormous upside surprise in the event such a merger materialized. This could present a rather rare scenario, in which the acquiring as well as acquired company would get a pop, with the latter being greatest. It is more likely that CCL would acquire RCL but it could go either way. CCL has a significantly higher market cap, more attractive balance sheet, a much lower debt to equity ratio, and a higher PE. Would the SEC even approve of such a merger? Who knows!

 

Happy investing, but better yet...HAPPY CRUISING!!:)

 

 

Keith

[CHARLESV32]

Did someone say Vacation!!!!

[truthandkeidy]

Downgrade from Barclays. This from "The fly on the wall" via Fidelity brokerage services:

 

"Follow-up: Royal Caribbean & Carnival Cruise downgraded at Barclays 01/28 08:27 AM

 

Barclays downgraded Royal Caribbean (RCL) & Carnival Cruise (CCL) to Underweight from Equal Weight. The firm said the magnitude of the decline in cruise demand is underappreciated. The firm lowered RCL's price target to $1 from $20 and believes the company will come close to having liquidity issues. CCL's price target was lowered to $17 from $27."

 

The "L" word warranted here? Lets hope this sentiment is without basis; perhaps RCL shareholder services will allay todays anxiety soon.

[Gonzo70]

Investors in these behemoths would get an enormous upside surprise in the event such a merger materialized. This could present a rather rare scenario, in which the acquiring as well as acquired company would get a pop, with the latter being greatest. It is more likely that CCL would acquire RCL but it could go either way. CCL has a significantly higher market cap, more attractive balance sheet, a much lower debt to equity ratio, and a higher PE. Would the SEC even approve of such a merger? Who knows!

 

 

No way this would happen. CCL is not going to try to acquire RCL for several reasons. RCL has massive debt and declining revenue growth in and of itself is enough of a reason. Also, CCL recently suspended their dividend so they do not have the cash flow right now to do a major acquisition even if there was good reason to do so. Furthermore the banks are not financing massive deals like this. If the economy stays down for an extended period of time RCL will go bankrupt eventually (they have a much worse balance sheet than CCL) and CCL will be able to purchase select RCL ships at a bargain basement price. There will not be a merger - at least not during a recession.

[truthandkeidy]

No way this would happen. CCL is not going to try to acquire RCL for several reasons. RCL has massive debt and declining revenue growth in and of itself is enough of a reason. Also, CCL recently suspended their dividend so they do not have the cash flow right now to do a major acquisition even if there was good reason to do so. Furthermore the banks are not financing massive deals like this. If the economy stays down for an extended period of time RCL will go bankrupt eventually (they have a much worse balance sheet than CCL) and CCL will be able to purchase select RCL ships at a bargain basement price. There will not be a merger - at least not during a recession.

 

You give more reasons validating such an event than not. The main issue is industrywide overcapacity. A majority stock swap would negate major cash outlays by CCL. As for a recession not providing an environment for megamergers, how would you explain PFE/WYE this week? With this industry being discretionary, time is of the essence all the more. This great industry likely can't wait for recession end; drastic action seems prudent. Barclays sentiments today were even more concerning than I imagined (raising liquidity issues and placing our price target at a buck). I truly appreciate your comments and wonder what other ideas you might have in the face of our unprecedented challenges. Considering CCL's relative market cap, debt/equity ratio and even P/E ratio; why so unlikely?

 

Keith

[rsinj]

Canival will not acquire RCL ... not without selling off a major chunk of what it now owns. I believe it was part of the stipulation in Justice Department signoff on Carnival's Princess/P&O acquisition that Carnival was done and not permitted to make any further acquisitions because of the dominant position it held in the industry. I agree that they may be permitted to buy certain assets, but forget the whole company...will never happen - not without some major restructuring. Howard

[truthandkeidy]

Canival will not acquire RCL ... not without selling off a major chunk of what it now owns. I believe it was part of the stipulation in Justice Department signoff on Carnival's Princess/P&O acquisition that Carnival was done and not permitted to make any further acquisitions because of the dominant position it held in the industry. I agree that they may be permitted to buy certain assets, but forget the whole company...will never happen - not without some major restructuring. Howard

 

Never spoke of an acquisition, rather a merger of sorts which is quite different. You're right in citing the P&O stipulations which is why I raised the question in my first post..."would the SEC even agree to such an event?". We're talking synergistic dynamics that address industrywide acute imperatives. You guys are all responding to old thread news. Anyone have anything to say about todays Barclays stinging release? RCL spokesperson just declined comment per a subsequent wire.

 

Keith

[isdoo]

down about 15% today, although now rising a bit.

[MuncieCruisers]

Just remember. A liscensed financial advisor (like me) would not post advice on a forum. There are too many loopholes to jump through to get approved to do it. I suggest that if you want a true measure of the possibility of an investment in RCL or CCL, you call an advisor at a major firm that has access to all of the reports and hopefully someone internal who follows the company.

[William W]

But what about the occupancy rate, aren't most cruise sold out prior to sailing? Personally, I haven't notice a huge drop in prices for cruises for January or February as compare to let's say Q4 of 2008.

 

I wonder if RCL itself is doing fine, but its subsidary is bleeding it dry.