Demand and Prices

[brian_uk]

I seem to recall that in previous years O was virtually fully booked by February in The Med. I just enquired and there is still availability.

 

As much as I want to book again, O are still 50% dearer in PH than AZ.

 

My thinking is as follows. People are hanging in there waiting for price drops in the PH and above and this will possibly happen when more money is required with 6 months to go. Will those already booked way ahead think again.

 

I would so much love to book O again but with the 30% drop in the value of the £ against the dollar in recent months it is so expensive.

 

I can live in hope and wait a few more months.

 

Brian

[cruiseyguy]

Waiting is a good strategy in the current environment if you have the flexibility to make sudden arrangements to take a cruise (many don't). Plus, you need to accept that "your" cabin might not be available and that the particular cruise you are interested in may not have a price drop. But I'm certain all lines will have increasing difficulty filling the many ships out there, including the new ones which will appear soon. Oceania is no exception.

[joan24]

I was surprised to find that a Vista suite opened up on my May 15 cruise on Insignia. I've never seen this happen before. Almost all cats still have openings. It's very possible that people are cancelling before final payment next month. We are on one of the cruises that did not get discounted. There's another cruise in May, on Regatta I think, that has at least 70 open cabins. I can understand not discounting the cruises that go out full, but I think that this is backfiring with people either cancelling Oceania completely or switching to cruises with discounts. I booked a PH cat and I didn't expect a discount when I booked. I think now that it's not great to elimate an entire deck of cabins from any discounts. I love Oceania and won't cancel, but I'm a little concerned with the way they are discounting. I'm sure that the economy is having a negative effect also.

Joan

[Leonid]

Regarding staterooms becoming available, on our just completed BA to Valpo. sailing over the holidays, we had booked a PH1 and then was advised that a deck 6 VS had become available. Passed on it. Then our TA called and said an OS on deck 6 had also become available, which I grabbed . The latter became available well after the final payment date.

 

For whatever reason, people are rethinking their cruise plans even if the final payment has already been made. For this particular sailing, something probably occurred, which prompted the cancellation.

 

Although , as retirees, DW & I can travel at a moments notice, we plan to take a respite after our upcoming cruise in 02/2009. Don't have anything booked for 2010 at this time. Want to wait and see what's available in the latter part of 2010.

[CruseKrazy]

The Mail Bouy podcast speculated a few weeks back that one of the boutique cruise lines will go under this year.

 

I certainly hope it is not O.

 

I think O was preemptive in their discounted pricing a few weeks back. The 03/21/2010 trans Atlantic we booked on O is a better deal than AZ's. And O bumped the deposit up to $750 so hopefully they will have enough cash to last out the year.

 

Works for me. It will be interesting to see what happens to AZ which I think was been having troubles filling cabins before the economy collapsed?

 

Go O go! :cool:

[nparmelee]

Ummm, deposits have been $750 per person for about a year now. That's not new. Other lines have started doing that as well for cruises more than 10 days or so.

[CruseKrazy]

The $750 was new to me as we had paid a $500 deposit for our O cruise last fall which we had booked in 2007.

 

I just checked AZ's advertised specials and they have dropped the deposit to $225. I guess they don't need the cash as much as O?

[nparmelee]

Well as of April 2008 anyway, the deposit was $750 per person for a new booking. I love the assumptions about why or why not any business does anything.... none of us would really know and the people who do must find it somewhat entertaining. I have a cousin who works on the NCIS TV show, they find the forums very entertaining with the speculation from the fans. And if A is doing a "special" with the lower deposits, well, they are doing a special and obviously think that the lower deposit will get them more bookings. Will it pan out for more final payments? Only time will tell. They likely won't tell the public, I don't think too many cruise lines publish stats on how many reservations are canceled before final payment. For now, the speculation will continue.....

[cruiseyguy]

Azamara only has two ships, it decided against building any new ships at this time and is owned by Royal Caribbean. I think it's OK for the future.

[hondorner]

Those 2 ships were originally supposed to be under the Celebrity in the Expedition category. They created Azamara in a deliberate attempt to copy Oceania; they even hired away some of the O management types. The fact that they canceled the new build (even though RCL can probably afford it), and the fact that they canceled all their South American tours this Winter, gives me a gut feeling that they are barely hanging on. RCL did not become successful byu pumping money into a losing venture. If A does not pick up more business, I bet RCL will roll those chips back into Celebrity without a moment's hesitation. The really ironic thing would be if the ships came on the market now, after O tried so hard to acquire them...

[meow!]

The fact that they canceled the new build (even though RCL can probably afford it), and the fact that they canceled all their South American tours this Winter, gives me a gut feeling that they are barely hanging on.

Cancelling newbuilds actually shows mangement luck (that it is still cancellable) and prudence ("over-expansionism is often the death knell of many businesses": just look at Oceania's predecessor, Renaissance, if it had only three ships and did not build the subsequent five, it would likely be prosperous today!)

[cruiseyguy]

Following hodorner's argument (with which I don't agree) if RCL/Celebrity can't fill its two Azamara ships with a product very similar to Oceania's but at a lower price, what leads you to believe Oceania can fill its current three ships (which it isn't, at present) plus a new build with twice the capacity?

[meow!]

... plus a new build with twice the capacity?

You mean with two newbuilds twice the capacity (there is another one after the Marina which they cannot back out of). As I have said before, FDR has been particularly wise or lucky, presumably, it appears as if he has sold most of his shares in Oceania to Apollo at the top price earlier last year. So now, if things work out, he will be a hero, if not, he can still keep his already made profit and go somewhere else!

[StanandJim]

Those 2 ships were originally supposed to be under the Celebrity in the Expedition category. They created Azamara in a deliberate attempt to copy Oceania; they even hired away some of the O management types. The fact that they canceled the new build (even though RCL can probably afford it), and the fact that they canceled all their South American tours this Winter, gives me a gut feeling that they are barely hanging on. RCL did not become successful byu pumping money into a losing venture. If A does not pick up more business, I bet RCL will roll those chips back into Celebrity without a moment's hesitation. The really ironic thing would be if the ships came on the market now, after O tried so hard to acquire them...

 

Don-

 

You're so right, Azamara exists because, after purchasing the two R Ships, RCI thought that they had the chance to cash in on some of Oceania's hard won cachet.

 

It did not work.

 

The ironic part of all this, is that it's the RCI/Celebrity "culture of the Mega Ship" that is doing Azamara in.

 

RCI and Celebrity passengers, who have had the big ship amenities just dont seem to be willing to trade them in for Azamaras brand of elegance and/or intimacy (such as it is).

 

In retrospect, perhaps it was ambitious to hope that those who were attracted to a shipboard lawn or a molten glass show, would be happy with the improved food, service and ambience of a 30,000 ton ship.

 

~And the high rollers feel lost without the Grand Piano in their Penthouse suites.

 

Azamara's niche, therefore, seems to be chiefly amongst those for whom Oceanias prices have grown too rich. That is not the market that they were hoping for.

 

What was once perceived as RCI's entrée into boutique cruising has degenerated into a deeply discounted operation where they are scrambling to get cash in the Casino so that ones "onboard credit" will fund shoreside activities.

 

As RCI does not even attempt positive press releases on the behalf of Azamara, any longer, it seems predictable that the Journey & Quest will become Celebrity ships again, at some point.

 

May 4, 2009 is the two year Anniversary of Azamaras inception. Twenty four months is typically an "opt out" window in a charter agreement. Any betting men out there?

[brian_uk]

RCI and Celebrity passengers, who have had the big ship amenities just dont seem to be willing to trade them in for Azamaras brand of elegance and/or intimacy (such as it is).

 

Having been on both O and Az I feel your comment about the elegance and/or intimacy of the latter to be wrong. (why do I always seem to disagree with you).

 

Having sailed on both I think the ships compare very well in those two categories but it is the little things that let Az down. There just seems to be fewer staff on Az and the speciality restaurants in my opinion were not as good. Having said that I would still sail again with Az if the price difference were still the same when I make my decision.

 

As far as copying the O brand, well good luck to them. I seem to recall that Burger King copied Big Mac and General Motors followed Ford with Cars etc etc. The world is full of copy products.

 

I will wait in hope that O amkes reductions in PH and above.

 

Brian

[hondorner]

Following hodorner's argument (with which I don't agree) if RCL/Celebrity can't fill its two Azamara ships with a product very similar to Oceania's but at a lower price, what leads you to believe Oceania can fill its current three ships (which it isn't, at present) plus a new build with twice the capacity?

I don't have a clue whether O can "fill its...ships" and never claimed they could. All I discussed was A, because A was never able to achieve the mark at which they aimed even when times were good.

 

Having said that, I do have an opinion about whether O will survive the current hardships (regardless of whether they fill the ships). The ownership structure of O is entirely different than that of A. A exists because RCL let them exists, and they will continue to exist only at RCL's pleasure. RCL is a cruise line company, not an capital investment company like Apollo. RCL has other things it can do with the ships, or can spin them off because they do not fit their brand.

 

Apollo may have an enormous investment in Oceania, but as far as I can see, they have taken a strictly hands-off approach to the management. Indeed, Oceania founder FDR is now CEO of Prestige Cruise Holdings, which owns both Oceania and Regent. Apollo appears to have taken the position that whatever comes down (the economy) will eventually go back up (a position with which I agree), and they will be uniquely positioned to take advantage of it with their two new ships. Apollo appears to have the staying power to outlast the current woes.

 

Whether FDR sold his stake in O when Apollo made their investment is unknown as far as I can determine; these kinds of investments are usually facilitated by the creation of additional shares, and management often keeps its original stake, which may, in fact, become enriched by the deal. If FDR had left the company, I might have assumed differently.

 

The bottom line? O has never followed the path of the other cruise lines, has become successful as a result, and I expect them to continue to do so. But then, I have always been a glass-half-full type ;).

[Leonid]

Don:

Nothing wrong with being a half-full type. I tend to agree with your assessment of what's happening.

 

The whole A attempt at copying O has never, and never will, appeal to me. Never ceases to amaze me when TAs heap praise on A when many pax. give just the opposite appraisal.

 

I believe that O will continue to sail and provide what they are best at doing - great food, service and accommodations ( at least what we book). They will weather this economic storm - as part of Apollo or as part of another entity.

 

As far as betting is concerned, Cardinals and over!!!

[Bruin Steve]

This thread, in my mind, is a bit bizarre...

 

First of all, the notion that Azamara is "a deliberate attempt to copy" Oceania is a meaningless point...The ships themselves force whoever operates them to operate them in a similar manner. Face it, they can't operate them like an RCCL ship--there's no room for the ice rink, the rock climbing wall and the kids club...The size, layout and amenities of the ship forces the operation and management...

 

And ALL cruise ships are basically doing the same things...with slight nuances...Is Oceania anything truly original? I think not...Other small ship lines existed before them, still do...and do a lot of the same things...

 

I have no particular "rooting interest" in ANY cruise line...I may like to cruise on them, but I don't own any of them...If ANY "go under", I consider that bad...FOR ME...

 

Competition is good...I can enjoy my cruise on any line (well, maybe not Carnival :) )...

 

What is in my interest is to have CHOICES...because I will pick my cruises based on itinerary, sailing dates...all sorts of criteria...I've cruised on Oceania before...and I will cruise again this time, not necessarily because I think they're terrific, but because they offer me the itinerary I want at the time of year I can go and at a price I can afford...Had Azamara had the same itinerary at the same time, I may have gone with them...

 

If the two have to compete for my vacation dollar, all the better...

 

I would hope BOTH lines survive...

I hope they can BOTH continue to afford to givve me the service and product I want without cutting corners...and I hope BOTH would continue to improve in those areas where they could each use improvement...

 

I hope that the prices can stay competitive so that I can afford them...and that they can make enough money doing it at those prices in order to continue to be worth operating...

 

And I hope the same for EVERY OTHER cruise line as well...

[LuAnn]

The Mail Bouy podcast speculated a few weeks back that one of the boutique cruise lines will go under this year.

 

I certainly hope it is not O.

 

I think O was preemptive in their discounted pricing a few weeks back. The 03/21/2010 trans Atlantic we booked on O is a better deal than AZ's. And O bumped the deposit up to $750 so hopefully they will have enough cash to last out the year.

 

Works for me. It will be interesting to see what happens to AZ which I think was been having troubles filling cabins before the economy collapsed?

 

Go O go! :cool:

 

Have you visited the Roll Call for the 3/21/10 TA yet? It is really pretty active for being so far away! LuAnn

[Paulchili]

Have you visited the Roll Call for the 3/21/10 TA yet? It is really pretty active for being so far away! LuAnn

 

That's all fine and good. Roll calls only really count after final payment is made - before that it's called " we are planning & hoping to take a cruise".

[hondorner]

I would hope BOTH lines survive...

I hope they can BOTH continue to afford to give me the service and product I want without cutting corners...

and I hope BOTH would continue to improve in those areas where they could each use improvement...

I hope that the prices can stay competitive so that I can afford them...

and that they can make enough money doing it at those prices in order to continue to be worth operating...

And I hope the same for EVERY OTHER cruise line as well...

Bravo! You are truly a glass-half-full person, and I agree with all your hopes.

[hondorner]

That's all fine and good. Roll calls only really count after final payment is made - before that it's called " we are planning & hoping to take a cruise".

(sigh) And with nothing but the kindest feelings, I do fear you may be a bit of a glass-half-empty person...:cool:

[shoshona2]

To Bruin Steve,

 

Well said! I totally agree with you.

 

Sheila

[Paulchili]

(sigh) And with nothing but the kindest feelings, I do fear you may be a bit of a glass-half-empty person...:cool:

 

I believe you are right.

I would like to be an optimist all the time - it's just not always easy. I would like to think of myself as a "realist" rather than a "pessimist" though.

[brian_uk]

The reason I started this thread was to get your views as to the possibility or otherwise of O reducing their prices nearer the departure times. As we would like to travel in August/September I guess that means around February or March when the next payments would be due from those already boked.

 

I have been told by my Travel Agent in a private message that this is most unlikely but who can be that certain of anything in these troubled times.

 

At the end of the day a Cruise Line has to try and fill their cabins rather than sail with empty ones and if by sailing on Az in a PH and by saving about $6,000 on a 14 night trip then I would be a mug to choose O IMHO.

 

There are many here who continue to knock AZ without actually having sailed on any of their Ships which I also find rather odd.

 

Finally to Bruin Steve I agree with you 100% which makes a change....lol.

 

And just for all your information my cup overfloweth.

 

Brian