No one needs this

[world~citizen]

I know no one wants to hear this on top of everything else but the pandemic alert has been raised to phase 4 and things are not improving. For those interested in what that means I have pasted the definition of level 4 and level 5. At level 5, a lot of people will be going nowhere and at level 6 we would have more problems on our hands than missed cruises.:

 

Phase 4

...is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

 

Phase 5

...is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

 

Some countries can arrest an outbreak better than others. Unfortunately, countries on many Azamara (and other) itineraries have lesser developed health care infrastructure.

 

The times we live in...jeeze.

[molfetta]

Im going to hide under my bed

[gillianrose]

The WHO (World Health Organization) raised the alert from Phase 4 to Phase 5 today.

 

http://www.who.int/en/

[molfetta]

level 5! that means hide under the bed & lock all doors.

[world~citizen]

level 5! that means hide under the bed & lock all doors.

 

LOL

 

Its interesting that a virus that is so deadly in Mexico sends doctors to work in Ontario trying to figure out why symptoms in Canada are so mild.

 

It is a problem for us though because we have to believe that the WHO is not just playing chicken little. It is not just cruises, but the whole tourism industry that will suffer.

 

Those of us sailing on Azamara will be going to countries with health infrastructure unlikely able to identify 2009H1N1 let alone treat it...so you worry.

 

The WHO has got to know that if they move people into over-reaction mode, who will believe them in the event of a real emergency?

 

Look at the media release: ...a pandemic is now imminent and “all of humanity” must join in an urgent battle against the infection...

 

It will be interesting to see how immigration authorities around the world will react. It will be interesting to see how cruiselines and pax will react. It will be interesting to see how many people will actually become seriously ill.

 

Interesting times.

[Moeve]

Some virologists are SPECULATING!!! that it could be the human componant in this virus that is reacting to the regular Flu vaccinations that many people have in the countries in which people have the funds to travel.... Mexico might not have such wide spread flu shots so there are not as many people who have antibodies at least to the human part of this virus...... which could explain why many of those who have contracted it from other countries are seeing a lighter case of it. Of course I will repeat it this is currently pure speculation however the idea seems, at least to a certain degree, logic.

[brian_uk]

We Brits are very stoical and refuse to panic.......I am typing this from under my bed with all windows and doors locked tight.

 

Quite frankly life is continuing very normally here in the UK with only a handful of confirmed cases.

 

Brian

[molfetta]

i would like to know how come the media does not report on how many people are dieing of aids,starvation,& a host of other diseases in the underdeveloped countrys of the world. how shameful is it that the people of the western world are so concerned with disease only when their own mortality is at risk.god forbid that cruise plans will have to be changed.

[world~citizen]

i would like to know how come the media does not report on how many people are dieing of aids,starvation,& a host of other diseases in the underdeveloped countrys of the world. how shameful is it that the people of the western world are so concerned with disease only when their own mortality is at risk.god forbid that cruise plans will have to be changed.

 

There is the rub.

 

I suppose they do, but HIV, starvation and malaria are not strictly speaking communicable (well HIV is but its sort of hard to get and easy to avoid). So we worry about the things that we might reasonably get. You know, today I read a business article lamenting how the virus will delay the economic recovery! Can you believe it? :eek:

 

Of course I can speak for everyone on this board when I say that we are horrified at the prospect of the loss of human life ... anyones.

 

The reality is that this whole tragedy may impact the vacations we have all ponied-up for and we may at some time all be comparing notes on how to deal with the situation.

 

However, if I understand the thrust of your post - that we are all poor World Citizens - then I couldn't agree more.

 

Smooth sailing....

[digby]

I think most people misunderstand the term pandemic. It simply means the disease has spread around the world. It does NOT mean that the disease will cause death nor even that it will cause major illness.

[Nutrioso]

In this mornings USA Today they quoted CDC as saying that they now believe that this flu has reached it's peak. That's making me happier. But, they also said that the 1918 flu had peaked in May of that year, remained dormant through the summer, and then they had the really big spread in the fall when so many folks became ill and died. Hope that's not the case with this H1N1.

----Penny

[harcin]

Where is the outrage and concern for the 36,000 folks who die of the flu every flu season? In the whole of the U.S. there are less then 500 cases of this strain of flu that are CONFIRMED....c'mon now, let's put this in perspective. Wash your hands frequently and use common sense.

[joelmomma]

Exactly! I'm so tired of this being sensationalized by the media. The school district I work for just closed two schools for "a suspected case" of the flu. It doesn't matter that in November and December we are swamped with kids with the "regular" flu and we seem to manage just fine. Common sense is definitely the missing link here!

[world~citizen]

Where is the outrage and concern for the 36,000 folks who die of the flu every flu season? In the whole of the U.S. there are less then 500 cases of this strain of flu that are CONFIRMED....c'mon now, let's put this in perspective. Wash your hands frequently and use common sense.

 

That is a point well taken.

 

I think the thing that got everyone in the WHO and CDC sitting up in their chairs was the age of the people who were apparently unable to survive the virus. You would expect to see deaths of people with compromised immune systems - either through disease or infancy or old age - which we see annually as you properly point out. In Mexico, it was killing people in the 20-45 age group - the healthiest group. That REALLY gets noticed.

 

It turns out symptoms seem more mild outside of Mexico. Today we are told H1N1 may be no more serious than the flu that as you say, normally makes the rounds.

 

I agree also that a pandemic doesn't mean that the bug will kill you, but there is no doubt in my mind that the people in the WHO and CDC sincerely believed this virus had the potential to do just that. Certainly they couldn't rule it out given the hard reality of Mexico.

 

For people that travel, there is an additional problem encountered as they cross borders. We have seen some odd reactions to phase 5 around the world. You can't rule out the surprise imposition of quarantine for foreign travelers based on little or no science in a whole host of countries - or the refusal to let a ship dock. When medically warranted these are things we can (and should) expect to happen. These are the things we can also expect to happen if things escalate to panic even if medically unwarranted. That is why I questioned the wording of the WHO media release.

 

So, this adds another wrinkle to the difficulties of cruise passengers. We generally buy our cruises months in advance. We have just seen, however, how the onset of a pandemic (or government reaction to it) can wreak havoc in just a few weeks or days. From what I have read, the only way to protect ourselves from the worst affects of this is "cancel for any reason" insurance.

 

Something to think about I guess.

[world~citizen]

As an example of possible government overreaction as I have suggested above, consider this article:

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090504.wflumain0505/BNStory/National/home