notamermaid

It depends on the superstructure of your ship and where you are when the level has risen. Yes, the bridge near Bogen will be the bigger issue depending on your time frame. All the best. Passau gauge is now at 632cm, time stamp 18.00 hours local time. Thank you for explaining the bridges, folks. Much water coming from the Upper Danube, critical situation in some areas. Forecast for Regensburg: notamermaid

Brief update. It is not looking good. Maxau gauge is up to 663cm and on a fast trajectory up to 700cm. More on this later. notamermaid

The awareness is there, growing. And the local authorities have often what they call a "Starkregenkonzept". This essentially means that one should have an idea of what to do to prevent local flooding when it rains heavily. After the floods of 2021 we are painfully aware of what the smaller rivers can do in Rhineland-Palatinate. But elsewhere it is the same - you can even look up online for your particular street what will happen in a 10-year-flood, etc. Sometimes it just proves too much - like it always has done over the centuries. We need to look after our smaller places better, for sure. There is room for improvement. I know you are not the "roaring fun" type of person but I hope you have a good weekend. notamermaid

The river at Basel has risen significantly and is on navigational flood mark I. This is what that looks like: That water will reach Strasbourg and Germany during the night and tomorrow. I am afraid to say that a river traffic ban around Maxau has shown up in the predictions for two days now. This was still a modelling too far out into the future for me to alert you but we are now seeing the rising waters and continued rain so this river traffic ban is still in the graph and now we are in forecast time, meaning we can be more certain of what the situation will be on Saturday. Maxau graph suggests going to 750cm during the night from Saturday into Sunday. That is then a river cruise ban which the authorities will issue. In short a substantial rise at Maxau is a given, best case scenario right now is that the river will peak just below the 750cm, most likely scenario is that the river will briefly reach 800cm. A brief look at the gauges downstream from Maxau reveals that the authorities expect levels to go up to navigational flood mark I. For the Middle Rhine valley it is too early to say but Kaub looks increasingly likely, too. For that gauge we have a long term probability chart and that indicates this as a high probability. notamermaid

I have returned late from an afternoon trip and saw the river being at a high but still normal level, wondering what the flood warning map will look like next time I put it on my screen... It has got worse, as was to be expected, but first things first. Maxau gauge is going up again, now at 649cm so the 650cm we will see earlier than expected. This is the current map: We see the High Rhine on flood warning, with the Rhine up to Mannheim now on the early alert. Stuttgart going North shows the Neckar river on early alert which is not good for the Rhine of course. notamermaid

Christmas ornaments are really nice. For me it is always fridge magnets, but I also collect tea towels in England. Do not see many nice ones in Germany, but my Alsatian ones with stork and wine bottles on remind me of a nice trip to the area. I did that for some years, even did a gallery setting for the screen saver every few minutes. You can get small bottles of alcohol and I do like the special peach liqueur (Weinbergspfirsichlikör) from the Moselle and Middle Rhine valley. A bit difficult to get, best place may be Koblenz. Chocolates, biscuits, guglhupf (spelling?) from Alsace. Greek50, have a great trip. notamermaid

Oh my, was it 2002? My memory, did not notice that. I should have remembered really. I see that a few gauges in the Czech Republic have turned from green to yellow, denoting mild flooding. The map also shows flood warnings in Thuringia: I guess most of that is also the Elbe basin, right? notamermaid

I understand what you mean - better run the ship upstream as fast as possible and make it through Passau. Bussing and letting the ship sail on in the meantime is an interesting plan for Linz, typical for saving time and a standard on some itineraries, but more on the Main than on the Danube. I do hope the timing works. notamermaid

I thought about your situation in Munich and remembered that you said the Isar is definitely far down enough from you. Kelheim gauge is forecast to rise during the night, Regensburg will follow soon. We can expect the 630cm at Passau by early evening tomorrow. It may be earlier or later but it looks certain to happen. notamermaid

They have learnt from previous communication disasters. But I admit that I was a bit surprised about the four day warning and e-mail. I think it will prove to be a good move. notamermaid

Ach Du meine Güte. Hope you will not get inundated over there. 2003 was really, really bad. This has been suggested for a few places along the Rhine but this system seems to favour the Danube right now. It may turn over tomorrow again into the Rhine basin instead. As you know, the Rhine and Danube are close to each other in the Southwest. If it is as stable as you say and keeps turning round and round we will all get too much rain. In 2013 we had a bad year, in much of Europe, June saw the Rhine far too high and the Danube the Jahrhunderthochwasser at Passau. notamermaid

We are back to the situation where the Neckar will massively contribute to the high level of the Rhine. As a major tributary the river can have quite an impact on what is happening on the Rhine from Mannheim downstream to Mainz - where of course the Main joins the Rhine. We expect significant flooding along the Neckar which is currently busy draining the forests. It is still raining a little in the Black Forest and adjacent areas. We can expect a fast rise at Heidelberg on Saturday morning. notamermaid

The main difference is the number of passenger decks. I think the TUI Isla is the standard large size (135m) and standard height. Which is not good for passage under that bridge. Your captain will know best of course what will be possible and when. That may be the case. Plan B kicks in. River cruise companies do have them and your cruise director will know this. Ship swap, cancellation or bus trip spring to mind. Or just plain waiting till the wave has passed. Edit: same time posting as steamboats notamermaid

Brief update. The rainy weather has moved to Bavaria today and the East, as well as the Czech Republic. Plenty of water for the Elbe basin. We are of course watching Maxau gauge closely and there the figure is down to 638cm. This is a brief interlude before the high volume of water comes from Basel and the High Rhine. The gauge will go back to flood vigilance of 650cm some time tomorrow and after that - well we are not sure, but the High Rhine has gone to flood alert and it is raining in parts of the Swabian Alb and the Black Forest. More info tonight. notamermaid

Welcome to Cruisecritic. Unfortunately what may likely stand in your way of getting to Frankfurt is that bridge in Passau. That is for now where I see the main problem. I will go with steamboats and say that right we cannot know what will happen on Saturday exactly. To some extent the volume of water coming from Regensburg can be controlled with the locks, the Isar river comes in at Deggendorf so that is a factor to consider as well, for the forecast. Does not look promising. Bad weather: Passau gauge is at 582cm, steamboats mentioned that it is down a bit on yesterday. Until tomorrow afternoon things look good but after that the high volume of water may prove too much for the river and there is a risk of the gauge going over 630cm during the evening. Note that passage under the bridge(s) will depend on the superstructure of your particular ship so any figure I give is only a guideline. The authorities in Bavaria have written it here. "some cruise ships": notamermaid

With the uncertainty in the graph I prefer not to look far into the weekend at Maxau gauge. I would say it looks a tiny bit better than this morning. As of now, very mild flooding will happen as a certainty. What can we expect? For now I will say that the situation will ease a little during the next 20 hours then going into Friday the level is very likely to rise relatively fast so that during the course of Saturday morning the figure will be 700cm. We will know more by tomorrow afternoon. notamermaid

Over in the Danube thread I have noted the change to a weather forecast that is anticipating heavy rain over Bavaria. For the Rhine as a quick interlude let us have a quick geography lesson to explain the uncertainty in forecasts and partly the fast changes in the computer modelling. Depending on how much rain falls we will of course see the figures change in real time and in the forecasts but it also depends on where the rail falls as we have two distinct divides in the South of Germany and the adjacent areas of France. Here is the map: This is the Southwest corner of Germany with Basel marking the Rhine knee or bend where the river turns north. First divide: The red interrupted line is the early alert for flooding of the Rhine. The red stripes indicate the area where there is also an alert. That water goes to the Rhine. Above in orange is the area that is on proper flood warning. Here we have the continental divide, i.e. the water shed, so that water goes into the Danube (thick line just above it). A small shift in clouds brings a major change potentially. Second divide: In the left of the screenshot the blue line is the Moselle source area, the blue line going out of the screenshot to the top is the Saar. Both rivers drain into the Rhine but much further North so that water will not go to the Upper Rhine valley but the Middle Rhine valley. A shift in the clouds over the Vosges mountains that separate the rivers from the Rhine (in your mind put those mountains in the grey area between the blue lines and Strasbourg) can cause a major change in the forecasts for the river levels. That's it. In short: quite some uncertainty in the forecast. notamermaid

Quite a bit of speculating, you are right. The graphs for the Rhine do not look good but keep changing a little by the hour. As of now Kelheim (before Regensburg) is showing a definite rise in the forecast on Saturday but how all that rain will translate into the gauge readings at Passau is guesswork. Viking is guessing the rise will be substantial, from what I read they could be right about that bridge. Other than that - "schaun wir mal". We will see. Hope the Isar will behave. Passau now is at 581cm so all good and likely to stay that way tomorrow. notamermaid

Welcome to Cruisecritic. Interesting - and good of Viking - that they announce the change in good time. The high water does not show on the gauges yet but can well be anticipated. On your itinerary it revolves around the fact that there is the low bridge at Passau which I reckon Viking is seeing as becoming impassable. Hence the fact that you will be embarking at Passau, i.e. the most likely explanation for the change. In order to still give you the experience of Regensburg they offer the coach tour. This has been mentioned on Cruisecritic before and from what I recall it was a loss of time in Passau. Should you not get an answer directly from a past cruiser the respective roll call may be helpful. Access it via https://boards.cruisecritic.com/forum/851-viking-river-roll-calls/ Have a great trip. notamermaid

We expect some flooding along the Rhine, but the rain clouds are also sweeping East quite fast. There is now a (pre)alert for heavy rain from Friday for most of Bavaria. River levels fine for now. We will know more on Friday. notamermaid

The tanker stranded at Cochem and occupying the Viking landing stage has finally left, equipped with emergency repairs and a rather odd-looking wheelhouse. We will see higher river levels due to the rain that has set in, but as of now the river is so low at Trier that the modelling shows no flooding in the next 48 hours. On the Rhine this looks a little different. notamermaid

Computer modelling has put the High Rhine on a pre-alert for flooding. That is from the mouth of the Aare river with the Rhine to Basel. The next river section, Basel to Strasbourg/Kehl has no such status yet. The modelling for Maxau gauge is a bit better than last night but it is clear that we will see flooding. The figure now is 649cm, flood vigilance kicks in at 650cm. While exact figures for tomorrow and Friday can only be tentative we can safely say that 700cm is a level we should expect by Saturday. Unfortunately, it may not stop there. Rainy weather has certainly set in and I can see heavy rain coming down over the Vosges mountains on the radar imaging. This water is feeding the Meurthe and the Moselle with the remaining reduced clouds raining over the Alsace side, meaning Strasbourg, etc., from where the rain feeds the Rhine. This morning it looks as if the bands of rain will "unload" mostly in the West and not give much rain to Bavaria. This of course may change tomorrow. Kaub gauge is likely to reach flood mark I on Monday or Tuesday. We will review the situation tonight. notamermaid

That is a neat design on the AmaMagna, great work of the engineers. Common rule remains that the elevator does not go to the sun deck due to the low bridges. Do check each individual ship if this is important to you. Rafting can be an issue, also the ramps/gangplanks, in low water. Low water can also change your docking space, meaning the prime spot is not available. The more flexible you can be and adapt to these situations the better for your convenience and enjoyment. notamermaid

While the Moselle is doing okay and the Saar is down to almost normal, the clearing up is still happening along the Saar river and some roads are still closed. The Saar river is navigable at this level but due to the debris the authorities have unexpectedly decided to keep the river traffic ban in place until Friday. A sonar ship is evaluating the navigation channel: https://www.sr.de/sr/home/nachrichten/panorama/saar_weiter_fuer_schiffsverkehr_gesperrt_100.html notamermaid

Maxau gauge is back on flood mark I, as expected and likely to reach the flood vigilance status late tomorrow. Basel as I mentioned on Sunday is expecting a high volume of water and the forecast appears to have worsened a bit, i.e. there may be more water coming down the Rhine than had been thought. This will happen in the second half of Thursday. Likewise, the modelling for Maxau shows that rise on Friday. As the modelling can change significantly within a few hours I will leave it at that and report back tomorrow. I am not an alarmist but I do admit that I do not like the graph and reports. Newspapers like dramatic headlines but I kind of share that nervous sentiment at this point at least. notamermaid