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JRG

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Everything posted by JRG

  1. I disagree. It is most certainly a strategy. Strategies are comprised of both Long and Short Segments, and each of those segments has both a tactical and a strategic element. For cruise lines when the pandemic hit, it became like an industry defcom2 and cruise lines started disposing of revenue generating and cost extensive ships prematurely, to reflect the early stages of a business strategy known as retrenchment and maintain solvency. i.e. new deposits. Without new cash inflows operations suffered and the "quality debt" became evident in the level of service and quality of food, etc... Operating on a shoestring budget is the status quo until the balance sheet debt can be supported by revenue from on going operations. And when the on-going concern is at stake, as evidenced by opinions expressed in annual reports and filings, that has been the case for the mass lines. Its a strategy of Transitioning from Retrenchment to Survival and then Crawling from the Wreckage with Dignity and it makes sense as an overall short term goal. On a long term basis, one can only hope for the best short term outcome to be favorable and the level of quality improves to pre-Covid expectation levels.
  2. The ratio analysis here is great. I'd like to see the other lines bar-graphed the same way. There is no better way to judge post Covid-19 performance, with respect to managing the debt service imposed by surviving the deluge. How much progress is being made on reducing the deferred cruise credits, that is a big indicator of recovery here too. Remember all the lift and shift bookings and the deposits that went with that. It would be interesting to see the comparative income statement year over year for the line item for the $100 deposit fees surrendered by customers, to see if it spiked in the past three years. Always have to keep an eye on the Balance Sheet and the Income Statement and the Quality of Service being reported on CC to make a reasonable assessment. Ratio Analysis is a good measurement, but it is after the fact, but that makes it useful for identifying the recovery trends, IMO.
  3. I prefer the Crema La Gusto and then the Top Class and have tried alot of the blends. I fell in love with the Lavaaza Coffee years ago on Celebrity and I bought their coffee/expresso/latte machine. Drink it everyday and love the smell when it brews and the slight froth on the coffee is as good as it gets. The Latte and Machiattos are reasonably good compared to the commercial machines, Comes out to about 55 or 60 cents per cup.
  4. Legally-maybe Consent Decree Literally-'the words crazy credit" (it wasn't what I meant), thinking more of a hall pass for good students. Realistically- Potential denial of a well funded feasibility study, Pro-forma and past 50 years in increments, data overlayed onto the milestone markers of decision making. The irony is that, to pursue the idea of a PVSA Exemption Card, the existing Trusted Traveler Program has already qualified frequent travelers and that facilitates instantaneous implementation. (i.e. Global Entry = PVSA Exemption) for such a program to be easily put in place, on a beta basis to gauge the interest levels of all parties, but in a market which is not or is under-regulated from a consumer standpoint anything can happen wit respect to what is 'marketed to the consumer' If such rights were bestowed upon the TTP member to be PVSA Exempt, then cruise lines can theoretically start marketing trips, that effectively let TTP cardholders 'Jump Ship' to their homeport. That "Test Marketing" Opportunity then allows the cruise lines (CLIA?) but more importantly, all parties, to assess the new markets that would be available to the Drive-To-Port Customers who (for example 1 of many) want to take family from SD to Seattle and not visit a foreign Country, and then turnaround and go back the same way a few days later, keeping most of the billions in tourist revenue in the country. Likewise for the traveling baseball fans who want to follow road trip segments. (Fly-In Customers). If such a PVSA Exemption Program was indeed SELF-FUNDED -by an annual TTP fees Cash In-Flows, and in such windfall fashion, how could the decision makers look the other way if the idea walked itself into the nearest district office, or was emailed to the USCG. I'm willing to listen to discussion in the opposition as to why such a plan would not work. After all, do the USCG and CBP personnel get fined when they return home without visiting a distant port, no they are exempt. (I think)
  5. I read the whole thing. The 24 hr. rule seems to be an example of an "adoptive interpretation", but I could be wrong. I am sure you are aware of the transcript I referenced from 1998 from the House Sub-Committee on Coastal and Marine Transportation and the quotes made by the Retired Admiral USCG. That transcript is public information and describes the horror of lobbying power in action. Shameless. Students of the game have the advantage of reading the thoughts and actions of players who probably never realized that their decisions would be analyzed and scrutinized 23 years later. More importantly, the economic data can be presented as evidence, without under interference so that the decisions can be made out of intelligence, and not fear, or allegiance. The Transparency revolution and other changing socio-demographic external forces has created a better environment for changing PVSA. Its up to the CBP and USCG Top Brass to open up the lines of communication and let the public know how they feel about how "adoptive interpretations" . Can they be improvised to better reflect the "conscience of not just the marine industry," but the other marine industries, commercial or leisurely. As pointed out in post a while back, the emergence of the vacationing cruiser who cruisers not to travel as a passenger, but vacation as a passenger, requires a set of Coastwise Transportations laws that are better suited for the Cruising Industry. We are trying to make them work under laws that were enacted when Vacationing Voyages were not part of the culture and did not comprise a marine industry in and of itself. I think this link is helpful to gauge how the USCG feels about current topics and I think it is a good website to learn more. https://www.dco.uscg.mil/Cruise-Ship-National-Center-of-Expertise/
  6. Yes, the Goat Cheese Souffle. We first discovered this in the SS United States restaurant a long time ago, and we would often ask for it when we cruised in suites. Usually got the Blue Cheese though, I think we got lucky one time. Its a good icebreaker for the waiters you get to know, so you never know.
  7. The doctrine has a certain portability, that allows it to be used at all levels, if for no other reason to draw the ironic inequities that are the source of conflict. Its most powerful when all other event criteria are 'just falling short' of merit, because it can be applied to all of the failing criteria events and "taken as a whole" may sway opinion. Even in a JAMS session. (idea presented here) If I had to solve the PVSA snafus that are imposed upon Cruisers, yet still maintain the barebone cabotage aspects, then I would favor Congress passing a stimulus bill to offer to qualified CBP travelers (i.e. Global Entry, Nexus), to apply for a CBP issued "PVSA" exemption card. We pay up to $400 for credit card with travel benefits, I think CBP should "Turn a problem into a Cash Cow (with annual revenue streams) for $500 pp and this would let cardholders travel without violating PVSA. I don't buy into the old problems of having to zero out a ship, technology has come to the rescue. (I just came up with this idea, so I am thinking it through).
  8. To finish the thought. Then Alaskan residents would have a level playing field which allows them to enjoy a highler level of travel quality, not presently available , and they keep their tourist spending in their home country. And CBP agents who live and work and play around port areas and know residents are 100% comfortable with the integrity of the laws that they are asked to enforce. This is important.
  9. True. And that is the perfect rationale to justify allowing Alaskan residents to apply for and pay a small fee to carry a "PVSA" travel exemption card, as issued by the State. And everybody is happy, right?
  10. True. The interests of individual Alaskans who desire to travel between U.S. ports are being denied that opportunity. More critically, Alaska businesses are losing commerce to Canadians because the vessels have to include a Canadian port in their itineraries to be PVSA-compliant. The PVSA was enacted to benefit the American maritime industry, not individuals and not American commerce generally The greater test which fails Alaskans, (and other victims of PVSA inequities) is best described (IMO) in the Doctrine of Substance vs. Form. (Simulated) If I had to draw up a desperately reasonable strategy in defense of the passenger, I would first draw out the philosophical and ethical "Inappropriateness", of enforcing the PVSA upon Alaskan residents, in this context, and the video testimony of CBP close to tears (purportedly) while arresting a local resident, gives evidence of that human emotion. (if it really happened that way). Of course this means nothing to the court, but it draws the jury (the cc audience) to feel the "inappropriateness" and silliness of the whole affair, wishing that they could interpret the jury instructions with the appropriate latitude. And like a good lawyer from a John Grisham novel, the defense attorney introduces case precedent to knock the prosecution off-balance and the audience, the judge, the jury and the defendant adjourn to reconsider testimony when guilt or innocence and possible render further precedence to future cases. Gregory v. Helvering, 293 U.S. 465, 469-470 (1935). “The substance over form doctrine applies when the transaction on its face lies outside the plain intent of the statute and respecting the transaction would be to exalt artifice above reality and to deprive the statutory provision in question of all serious purpose.” note: The doctrine is used and applies largely to IRS code. But it can be argued to have the same underlying principle in civil and maritime law as well.
  11. And for those with Brewers Lip, the IPA's of California should be served exclusively, and on tap.
  12. But That's What Dreams Are Made Of. says Sammy Haggar via Van Halen The Celebrity Pull out was a bummer. We were just beginning to exploit our home port but I think it will come back. K-Dam is the right type of ship to service the Coast and I like it, and I am a drive-to-port customer, lucky to be close to SD and LA. I just like the idea of talking about the potential markets, and as we do that, we should be setting the levels of class that the sophisticated baseball enthusiasts should expect as they follow their boys of summer across the cruisable coastline where their heros swing away. Good Solid Classic Rock and Roll and other stuff is mandatory and must be the best available. The food has to become Michelin grade (big dream) and the wine has to reflect the Class of Connoisseurs that Californians enthusiastically share with the rest of the world , but we want to pay the same price we pay in Total Wine (really big dream) . And I want to eat fresh Alaskan Halibut, which to me is number two behind Fresh Chilean SeaBass which has taken top billing. King Crab should be avilable like the free Sushi used to be on the Celebrity Ships, because that set them apart from the other masslines, (IMO), Or the wonderful taste of fresh Salmon cedar-plank cooked as fresh as can be, same with the shrimp from the ports of Seattle. All the same time watching on MLB the condensed games and recaps to keep the sports pub brewing. The real dream is to get the regulatory-de-regulations relaxed enough to enable types of "local harvesting" so that cruisehips can compete or offer a better product (gourmet) food for less than the current standards, that a sourcing model change (really, really, really big dream). Big dreams for a Big Market. 3-4 years is nothing. Think of how long the Brooklyn Dodgers fan had to wait to beat the Yankees. We didn't have to sell our soul to you know who (your favorite martian). We didn't have to deal with whatever LoLa Wants, Lola Gets (george), and we know who really made that running over the shoulder catch and turned and wheeled from one foot back to second base. It wasn't Keith Hernandez as he was hidden away in the meadows, I forgot the rest of the story. Damn Reggie, Damn Yankees. Anyway, currently, unless closed by weather, The Coaster, Metrolink, Trolley and Amtrak Pacific connect Union-Station to Santa-Fe Station in a very European Style of Travel between San Diego and LA in general, and to me that is the key to starting or ending your Cruise in and around the San Diego Port. The High-speed Rail is getting closer and closer to being the real-deal and how we Travel to and from Cruises is going to change too.
  13. This thought originated from considering whether or not Passengers were given an "arms length" treatment as compared to other restricted items, which would ironically also harm a vessel. Hence the "Amnesty Bin" , Could passengers be given a chance to pre-pay the fine to avoid arrest, for example. Clearly Alaskan residents are not getting a level playing field here. My greater PVSA legal question however related more to Ensenada: Does the fact that the State Department classifies Mexico as a dangerous place to travel (don't know exact nomenclature here) conflict with the CBP using Mexico as a work-around to PVSA in such a matter to create basis (or the impetus) for a legislature or judicial or executive change order.? In other words, our PVSA law seems to be making US Cruisers embark and disembark in a country while simultaneously our U.S. Government is saying we shouldn't travel there. Have you ever heard this argument before?
  14. Just to make my point clearer, do the cruise lines really have it right in passing this fine on to the cruiser if the cruiser has not been properly advised at point of booking?, I don't know, just asking. ps. If they (cruiselines) do not have things contractually right, will the cruise lines reimburse passengers in the past years of cruises who have had this fine passed on to them if it were to be deemed actionable at a class basis. Oh MY!
  15. I concur with the logic here until I am convinced otherwise, the cruiseline is not indemnified, they are liable for the fine, so they pass it on. In the contract of the cruise, is the cruiser advised that they are responsible for compliance for PVSA, or just the fine associated with it (buried with the fine print of the contract, no pun intended)? If so, is the cruiseline potentially in breach of contract for not advising or disclosing or some other tort of deciept, without making any specific allegations. It requires a legal analysis. It may give rise to the past questions as to how many Alaskans have done this accidentally in the past and been fined or not fined. Is the cruise line responsible for identifying this at point of booking, like a travel agent would, could or should. If so, then we should have the same type of warnings that exist for other CPB and inspection warnings related to hazardous items, health issues, alcohol, etc,etc,etc. It seems to me that PVSA Perps, whether knowingly or unknowlingly, should at least be given an Amnesty Bin at the embarkation process so are not subject to arrest.
  16. Thank you for starting this ever important thread. It is the big ticket item for me because I have been studying the Pyramids for a long time. The level of traveling safely is the impediment, still for me, and I wish that wasn't the case and the comments in the thread helps keep our fingers on the pulse, to some degree. For students of the pyramids 'how did they build them" game, the recent discovery of how shifiting Nile tributaries were concievable used as the transit conduit for the big stones quarried from the lower seems to have been answered and that kind of stuff intrigues me. If I were King for a Day....
  17. What an awesome idea. You are talking to somebody who went to Willie Mccovey Night in both LA and SD in the year that he swan songed it out of here. But what a great way to stimulate every type of tourist spending on a repeat basis with a regular schedule, it would be a cash cow for the cruiselines because they could plan on high- occupancy coastal cruising with an unending supply of high dollar spending cruisers who would be happy to do this and visit relatives at the same time or the many, many things that you can't do on your usual stopovers in the coastal ports And then do it again next year. Great Idea.
  18. If they ask for your final comment, you should tell your agent that they should tell the same management that Celebrity needs to broadcast a company wide Memorandum and travel agent wide Memorandum that Many bookings are being over-complicated because of misunderstanding between the Jones and PVSA act and fixing the problem at the source helps the integrity of the Cruising Industry and facilitates a smoother booking process, thereyby saving them money in re-working. Or something to that effect......just a thought if you get an open window of communication to management, which is a rare bird.
  19. JRG

    Maui

    I will pass the microphone back to you and continue to support Maui and Hawaii and continue the thread, having nothing else to add. Thank you for listening to my idea as a contribution, we own a timeshare in Hawaii. We will come back to Maui and we want to be as safe as residents. Its not just the money donated that will rebuild a safe Maui, it will be the ideas that the money is spent on that will make keep everybody safe.
  20. JRG

    Maui

    I would welcome your comments on my previous post. I forgot to mention the housing shortage. I would also welcome @CruiserBruce and his opinion if my suggestion makes sense from the professionals who do this for a living and who, like us and our families and countless others who have been to Maui many times and driven on that isolated road as it his that treelined coastine and heads to Front steet and LaHaina, there was no where to run. If residents and locals knew and saw that CruiseShip's were there with LIfeboats, How many people whould not have perished in their cars because they were hemmed in with nowhere to run but the sea which is meters away. Or those who were in the water and knew they could swim no further with no help in sight. Tell me what you think.
  21. JRG

    Maui

    My saddest hypothesis should persuade not just your local Hawaii Gov't but also our Federal Gov't to jointly LOBBY for change to the PVSA to allow free market economics to exist in Hawaiian and Alaska and US Mainland Coastal Cruising. My compelling reason to support my hyposthesis is this.... If a free market existed for Coastal Cruisng in Hawaii, then theoretically there could have been maybe 10 to 15 cruiseships in and around the islands... some of which would have been available IMMEDIATELY to do this: Convert the LIfeboats into QRT Rescue teams to Save our Hawaiian Citizens and US Tourists. The crews are trained to do this. each ships carries enough capacity to support the respective passenger load. How Many Lives Could We have Saved???? It is not just about Markets. Why Are We So Stupid in not recognizing that our laws need to be changed with the values of the place and time. Thomas Jefferson told this to us in the Constitution. Email your Congresspeople.
  22. JRG

    Maui

    And the same thing happened in 1998 when the House Sub-Committee on Marine Transportation met ( and the Administrations mysteriously did not attend) and in the transcripts you can read the pros and cons, reflected in the language that you would expect and they discussed modifying the PVSA, mostly for purposes of jumpstarting the shipbuilding industry, The panel was made up of some professionals for opposed change and some professionals who were Advocating Change, like retired US Coast Guard Admiral Kime, who was trying to get it changed for the above aforementioned reason. Long story short, it looks like the House passed the Bill and it crashed and burned in the Senate. I suspect that the political orientation of the Senate knew that the bill would veto'd at the highest level. Damn the Torpedoes.
  23. JRG

    Maui

    Your sentiment is reflected by thousands of cruisers in the world. Markets Get What They Want, eventually. (Just slice a very small amount off for the cruisers and leave the rest of the the cabotage stuff to function as it is)
  24. Admiral KIME. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and members of the committee. The thrust of my prepared statement, which I have submitted to the committee, is simply this: America and its maritime industries are missing the boat. For years, we've yielded a booming cruise market and its millions of American passengers to foreign-built, foreign-subsidized, foreign-owned, foreign-flag, foreign-crewed passenger ships. Bolding is mine.
  25. You are so correct D C , more and more cruisers need to educate themselves as to the real issues. Effect of the Passenger Services Act on the Domestic Cruise Industry (house.gov) So, if a retired Admiral of the United States Coast Guard is willing to go into a House of Representatives subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation and admit that the US Maritime industry has "missed the boat", then who should the Cruise Critic Committee believe, the protectionists or a retired Coast Guard Admiral. The rest of the maritime world must be laughing in the face of the protectionists in the US who cannot see the big picture at 40,000 feet. This transcript from the sub-committee is hilarious. The Admirals testimony begins on page 35 and it echoes everything I have been saying for 3 years. Keep in mind that this occurred in 1998, and even back then they are talking about new potential markets that could be established. Many many many things have changed since and I will be covering that in a post that I will call PVSA Snafu 201. We are missing the boat with PVSA I don't waste my time in dialogues with the protectionists anymore. I have had so many posters tell me that I don't know what I am talking about when it comes to PVSA and finding this transcript is very very vindicating for me. The real x-factor which has yet to be revealed will be looking at how the USCG uses an adoptive interpretation of the vaguely codified language. Let's see what the cat brings in on that one.
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