Baron Barracuda

Not a bad quarter. Showed incremental progress. Still, even 102% occupancy couldn't get bottom line out of the red. Forecasted $4.50 full year eps is on an adjusted basis which ignores $1.3B interest expense. Big increase in customer deposits allowed them to pay down some debt.

Did you notice after last quarter NCL now has negative stockholders equity?

Yeah, but ..... even at 102% occupancy they still lost money. And the rosy full year profit they project is on an adjusted basis which excludes that pesky $1.3B in interest expense. Yes, they are making progress but it will take many years to clean up their balance sheet.

Didn't cancel & re-book. Same reservation #, cabin # and flights. They just gave us a price adjustment and added bev pkg.

Back in Nov '21 booked two cabins for 7/1/22 VR Grand European Tour. Total cost including free air was $31K. Less than three months prior to sailing Viking rolled out their 25th anniversary sale with significantly lower pricing along with free air and free bev pkg. Contacted our TA and asked her to see if VR would throw us the bev pkg. To our surprise they repriced our reservations refunding over $9k plus the free air and bev pkg. I posted this on cc and several others then contacted Viking and received price adjustments as well. Maybe we were just lucky or maybe the policy has since changed.

Theoretically share of tip pool allocated to cabin stewards should not have changed. With stewards roughly doubling the number of cabins they cover RCL now only requires half as many stewards. Therefore remaining stewards should receive twice as much from pool. Same issue arose a few years ago when they switched from cabin stewards working in teams to solo. Separately, those considering reducing their auto grats in protest should recognize they're punishing waiters and everyone else in the pool not just stewards.

An ocean cruise will give you a taste of the big southern European cities. A land tour will give you a more close-up look at European culture but you will be changing hotels daily. A good compromise between the two might be a river cruise. We did Viking's 14 day Grand European tour last summer from Amsterdam to Budapest which sailed down the Rhine and Danube past all the great castles. Other itineraries are available in Southern Europe.

Had no problem bringing beignets aboard in NOLA. Interestingly, US customs site says ok to bring cakes cookies and other baked goods into US.

4q '22 they sailed at 95% capacity, had revenue of $2.6B and only achieved break-even operating earnings. After subtracting interest expense {but ignoring extraordinary items} they lost $400MM. Being very very very generous assume they raise occupancy to 105%, increasing revenue 10% or $260MM / qtr and are able to hold expenses flat. After interest expense they still might not break even That debt is killer and adding new-builds won't help. In 2019 interest expense was $400MM, the current annual rate is $1.7B

I respectfully disagree with this and all the other posts about ships sailing full. Every ship pretty much sails as full as the cruise line wants it to. At the right price cabins will sell out. Just comes down to how much discounting X is willing to accept to get the job done. Staffing issues may also cause them to permit a higher vacancy rate.

Sailed this itinerary twice on Eclipse and found it to be one of our favorites. It was only offered during the fall and spring shoulder seasons. X replaced it with 10 and 11 night itineraries which we never found as relaxing. Coincidentally (?) this change occurred around the same time X changed their marketing focus toward a younger clientele. To me the longer Caribbean itineraries in winter made sense by alleviating overcrowding in Grand Cayman, Cozumel and St Maarten.

You do realize Jason Liberty the RCL CEO and Hodges-Bethge's boss was previously the RCL CFO. Wouldn't recommend turning a deaf ear to his wishes.

She may be calling this a glide path to retirement but from the SEC filing it seems likely she was forced out. Last year she made $820k in base salary and was eligible for a 130% performance bonus (don't know if she qualified). In her new role her base pay is down to $360K. You don't cut a valued executives pay in half just before retirement. The filing also speaks to her being eligible for severance. which shouldn't come into play in a voluntary separation. Maybe she is just looking to retire or maybe she was a Richard Fain appointee and Jason Liberty wants to install his own team. Would be nice if this was Liberty responding to all the recent X complaints but that's likely too much to hope for. Note that RCL has never broken out X's financials so we have no idea how they are performing. Also, despite having the title of president she is really just a division manager, responsible for less than 1/3 of RCL's total berths and shouldn't be compared with Fain, Donald and Del Rio. She doesn't even sit on the RCL board.

Thanks to Biker19 for posting the more complete story. I read the press release yesterday but it omitted the compensation details and gave the appearance this is simply a corporate re-shuffling. As boss of Celebrity LLP enjoyed a base salary of $820K + bonus. This has now been cut to $360K and appears to be good for only one year. Just speculating, but she was a Fain appointee and Liberty might want to replace her with one of his own people. Also, might not count for much but in the many years I've been following the X board I've never seen so much complaining about food, service and other cutbacks.

A few years back X experimented with turning the Mast Grill on Equinox into a pay venue featuring "kobe beef" burgers. Received huge negative pushback and soon switched back to basic free burgers. Maybe LLP is intentionally degrading the current Mast offerings so she can later "fix" the problem with another attempt at better quality pay ones.

Need to be mindful that when comparing insurance policies the devil is in the details. Coverages may appear similar but digging into the fine print reveals significant differences. Have received helpful and knowledgeable guidance from agencies like Insuremytrip and Squaremouth.

https://preview.aem.celebritycruises.com/int/things-to-do-onboard/onboard-packages/premier-pass

As of 12/22 SVB had $16B in equity plus $18B in unsecured debt vs $212B in assets. Since asset quality does not appear to be a major issue that $34B cushion should provide more than enough cushion to pay off depositors. Therefore no need for bailout.

Even with 95% occupancy last quarter RCL still lost $500MM. They broke even on an operating basis but couldn't cover $400MM in quarterly interest expense. Debt service will continue to rise as they are forced to refinance maturing debt in a rising interest rate environment. Scheduled fleet additions will add $ billions in new debt. Even if the economy avoids recession it will be a very long time before cruise lines return to their 2019 earnings level.

Not necessarily true. While RCL doesn't speak to it in their investor presentations have to believe some functions such as purchasing must be at least partly centralized at the corporate level. Makes no financial sense for Royal, X and Silversea to carry duplicative infrastructure.

Scheduled to open in 2025 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/royal-caribbeans-beach-club-in-the-bahamas-moves-forward-for-2025-opening-301766018.html

Policies often appear identical but the fine print can contain big differences in coverage. Best to speak with an expert at Insuremytrip or Squaremouth. They offer policies from many carriers and can often get better coverage at lower price than what cruise lines and TA's are selling.

Came down with flu aboard ship 20 years ago. Got stuck with $1k medical bill and haven't sailed without travel insurance since. I personally focus only on large potential risks like evacuation and medical. Have learned that even between similar appearing policies actual coverages can differ greatly. There can be so many things to consider it will make your head spin. Critical elements include whether policy is primary or secondary, who is in charge of medical decisions and if evacuated where will they take you. Have found policy language difficult to interpret so rely on experts at The Travel Insurance Store and Squaremouth. CC's Travel Insurance forum is also a great resource. Would be suspicious that TA has self-interest in who he/she recommends.

Fear that the cruise lines wouldn't survive covid shutdown made their stocks among the worst performers of '21. Resumption of sailing allowed them to recover to current level but their balance sheets are still in tatters. RCL debt has balooned from $11B to $24B. Those rosy earnings forecasts cited above are on an adjusted basis which ignores among other things $1.7B ($6/share) in interest expense. In their most recent quarter 4q '22 RCL sailed at 95% occupancy yet barely broke even on an operating basis which excludes $.4B in interest expense. It will be a very long time before earnings justify a higher stock price. Royal is still in better shape that NCLH which this week reported a 4q '92 loss of $.5B driving their stockholders equity down to only $69 million. Of course all the cruise lines are crowing about record bookings which isn't a surprise given how many new ships (and associated debt) they have added..

In 4q '22 Royal's total food cost per person per day was $18.30 vs $13.00 in pre-covid 2019. Fares have rise much more than this yet food quality suffers.