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sergioag

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Posts posted by sergioag

  1. 10 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

     

    To say the ship will be done soon, "because they are already doing cabins" shows a misunderstanding of the labor intensive nature of connecting those modular cabins into the ship's infrastructure; electrical, plumbing, and HVAC, and with three distinct trades involved, and social distancing implemented, this is going to be slower than normal.  While the yard never shut down, the rules put in place to keep operating had to significantly slow work, and I would expect that if it is a question of when the ship is finished, and given that RCI has a cash flow problem, that no overtime will be authorized, and therefore, the slow pace will continue, and the ship will be a minimum of 2 months overdue, perhaps more.

     

    Always a pleasure to read you Chief! Not many good news this time, but nothing to be done. I still carry some hope that we will cruise on January, but not too sure about that. Will be interesting to know when/if RCI will make the announcement.

  2. 2 minutes ago, Tall-Cruiser said:

    This is on point and I think we are all kind of saying the same thing essentially. Both Meyer and Royal are talking about what is the "optimal time" for delivery that works for both given the cruising times we are in and the payment that has to be made. We here don't know what/when that is. 

     

    If it's delayed, I will be sorry for all our good friends here including Ken who where looking forward to an Inaugural  sailing on Odyssey. 

     

    Unfortunately, this certainly seems to be the case.

  3. 17 minutes ago, steamboats said:

    So for RCI taking the Odyssey this year will reduce their cash... and RCCL already had to take the Celebrity Apex. So it would be in the interest of RCI to delay the hand over til 2021 as then they don´t have to pay for the ship.

    That depends on the financing conditions and the shipyard contract. It may or not be the case. Of course there are countless other possibilities....

  4. 11 minutes ago, Tall-Cruiser said:

     I agree with your point to strike a balance and reducing capital expenditure. The latter may more affect Icon of three ships above only due to were it is in the current build cycle. Knowing RCI, I doubt they will cut back a lot of the design elements as they like to Wow their cruisers. But yes we are in a different time right now so you never know. 

     

    I think it will depend on how bookings are for 2021 (which they said so far seem normal), how they develop (i.e. maybe people will cancel next month.... you get the idea) and how cruising goes after they resume operations. All this timing doesn't fare well for Odyssey, as they probably have to make a decision right now (unless of course Meyer Werft is delayed) with inaccurate/incomplete information (which is normal, given this is a never-seen on-development situation). That same decision may affect other ships to be delivered later, but since they are far out, they can probably be expedited later if needed. I don't think Odyssey would have that chance, though it's the one closest to completion, so that's a plus.

  5. 8 minutes ago, Tall-Cruiser said:

    I think for Royal and other cruise lines, the best way to get people excited about cruising again is to start putting out new material and updates on their new builds such as Odyssey, Wonder, Icon and etc. 

     

    At least when feasible. Odyssey, yes. Wonder, probably. Icon... too far out. They must strike a balance between giving people something new and exciting, and reducing capital expenditure because of the upcoming recession.

  6. 54 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

    Apex was already delivered and Silversea has 2 for the third quarter. 

    [image removed]

     

    That would make sense, taking into account that basically all shipyards were affected except for Meyer Werft. There are many ships expected to be delivered for 2020 and 2021, all of them affected except, supposedly, Odyssey.

     

  7. 2 hours ago, Ourusualbeach said:

    Quote from a business update Royal provided today. 

     

     

    The company believes COVID-19 has impacted shipyard operations and will result in delivery delays of ships previously planned for delivery in 2020 and  

    2021https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/22916-royal-caribbean-provides-business-update.html

     

     

    Hopefully they refer to other shipyards, which are indeed affected, such as Turku (i.e. Icon-class) and Chantiers de l'Atlantique (i.e. Wonder of the Seas). On the other hand, there's no other ship, besides Odyssey, expected for delivery in 2020 😞

  8. 1 minute ago, John&LaLa said:

     

    True, but Carnival's Mardi Gras is due in Pt Canavaeral for her inaugural voyage in November, and she's floating now.😉

     

    Now she's way behind schedule, no doubt. She was delayed prior to Covid. They already cancelled multiple weeks of cruises. Most of that because she is a new design, LNG, etc..  No word of any further delays as far as I know.

    Remember that some shipyards float out ships as soon as their hulls are finished. Others wait much further down the road. And others just float them after finishing them, or very closely before finishing. Mardi Gras seems to be made in Turku shipyard, which is different to Odyssey, yet same owner. But taking in to account the state of Odyssey before this virus thing started disrupting things all over the world, I would say we're either on time or very close to. Other ships/shipyards may be different, but this one seems to be fine.

     

    We're booked for January and even with this analysis and progress we're still worried. We will probably only stop worrying after the ship gets is maiden voyage.

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  9. 4 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

     

    I get that, but I was referring to the original installation date. 

    You see, for all I know, maybe they should have gone in three weeks ago😉

    We may never know the original installation date. But if it was in fact delayed, it shouldn't have much effect: they haven't painted the hull, they haven't floated it out yet, etc.

     

    In project management there is a critical path of tasks that will get the whole project delayed, no matter if only a small delay. But other tasks may get in the critical path if they get delayed or extended. In this case it doesn't seem to be either case, but this is a big assumption. Hoping for the best anyway.

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