molecrochip

A couple of dates stick in the mind. One this month, one next. Very much weather dependent at this time of year. Conveyance won't happen if high winds.

Initial feedback is that crew are pleased its now in their own hands and they can decide based upon what/where they are.

One of my favorite ports is Curaçao when the ships berth at the original mega dock. You have a clear view of the 800m odd path leading to the ship. One year, Christmas even and this one chap was late back. The captain and all the ship out on deck could see this chap running. The captain commented that he better run faster otherwise his Christmas dinner was leaving without him. No sooner was the chap on board than he visited the Lido deck for refreshment, at which point the cruise director (then was) commented to everyone on deck that they could personally thank him for delaying the stat of Christmas! Not a happy chap, but he really did delay departure!

The problem is that a lot of people suffer from some of those symptoms in connection with life long conditions that they have. Those conditions may be very well managed and pose no threat to anyone on the ship, or the person answering the question. Most people want to be honest. If you're honest, you expect a follow-up question. Not a straight forward cancellation. This is where I have the issue. I know of one regular P&O customer who has IBS. They regularly tick three, four or five or those boxes including diarrhea. However, having had the condition for most of their adult life, they know when its their IBS, and when its an illness situation such as a viral/bacterial bug. I was also talking to a disabled P&O customer the other day who has a permanent cough and struggles to regulate their temperature. These aren't symptoms of illness but of their disability. People think I don't speak out against P&O but its not true. The questionnaire is too blunt an instrument. We all get what they are trying to achieve but their approach has to be sensible, far and balanced.

The suggestion I’ve been given for such a situation is…. If he has a defacto permanent cough, suggest you complete the accessibility / medical form. If they try to cancel you then, shout discrimination.

Personal , of course.

I'm not convinced that the share price is a major concern here. The entire cruise market has followed a similar trend therefore its not just Carnival who have tanked. Carnival are the biggest therefore their movement has been the biggest but that's to be expected. The analysts expected better from the last earnings call as they had been led to expect better. There was an analyst on CNBC the following day who was clear that Carnival said one thing in their statement then back-tracked on that in their earnings call. This details a company with mixed opinions as to where it is headed. The earnings calls have been an Arnold & David double act for years to the degree that they could finish each other's sentences. This time Josh and David were not on the same page. Yes, some elements are being sold to cheaply but thats strategy. If you're an expanding value driven brand - CCL, P&O, Princess to name a few, as you add significant capacity, you reduce cost to fill the capacity whilst still making your previous levels of profit. Then once you have all your customers covered to existing customers, you incrementally increase the price of the product. What you have is a two year gap in that cycle which has pushed back capacity additions and thus pushed back price rises. If you're a Cunard, HAL, Seaborn then you add capacity at a much slower scale and therefore don't alter your pricing structure. These brands are typically looking for existing cruise sector customers who want to 'step-up'. What is interesting is P&O have yet to have the new CEOs detailed strategic review which, for example, Princess has - remember those very successful Princess Plus fares? Its not a surprise that P&O weren't first as Josh had been closer to P&O and Cunard before leaving for the US. I wonder if 2023 could be the time for Paul Ludlow to say '2 new ships, covid restart complete, job done' and move elsewhere within the Company. His track record says that he is career ambitious. Are we at the bottom? I think that may wait for January depending largely on oil prices. I think we -could hit £4 before we see the turn. My end of 2023 target is £10ps.

One additional thought. Covid testing is no longer the answer to this. P&Os terms are trying to stop anyone with a short term illness getting on board.

I suspect that it is true that its a Corporation wide change to stop offering FCC, especially if you've listened to the recent earnings call. The difference is that in some countries, you can't insist on travel insurance therefore the booking terms and more importantly cancellation terms tend to me more flexible. P&O and Cunard have for a long time had UK specific booking terms.

Passenger traffic in port is not an exact science but does follow some very common patterns. Mass exodus once the ship has docked, crew exodus around lunchtime, no one getting off ship in the last 60 minutes etc. The same applies with getting back on. Some ports have passengers returning in a fair flow all day, especially if you are berthed in town. Some see a mass return in the hour before departure. The ship can monitor the outstanding passenger numbers. Just sometimes everyone arrives back early. It does happen, especially if you land in a port where nothing is open on a Sunday. When it does, and only a few passengers are missing, its a courtesy to ensure that everything is ok. Lets say its 40 mins to departure and only two passengers are not back on board. Experience will tell Security that either they managed to get back back on board without scanning, or something untoward may be occurring. This leads to the other reason that you may have been called. Its possible that a crew member had mis-scanned a card or was manually entering an order and tried to put some drinks through on your room when the computer knew that all occupants of that room were on shore. As a security function, it gets referred to the Purser's office.

Two questions occur: we’re those the booking terms at the point of booking, remembering that only favourable changes can be imposed later; and is the term a reasonable one. The term isn’t reasonable on a stand alone basis however another term requires back to back coverage by an insurance policy. My thought here is that, I’m not sure that any insurance policy covers medical cancellation as widely as P&O are applying it. On this basis , the risk is uninsurable, the term unreasonable and P&O would lose in a court of law. So keep fighting and don’t take no for an answer.

As with Iona, P&O will have booked the Ocean Terminal as necessary but requested that its not updated onto the cruise schedule until a lot closer to the time. This is not a need to worry. You may recall a lot of comments on here when cruises went on sale about prices shooting up rapidly due to lack of availability. Now Covid is managed different, availablility is better and prices have dropped. This can vary category to category so not every one who booked is affected but most of those who were affected have received some kind of 'thank-you'. As of Friday, it was still on time. Iona's Ems conveyance is due this month. At that point she berths in Bremerhaven where final fit out (think soft furnishing, cutlery etc) and crew embarkation occurs. Ship trials should take less than a week. Iona took a very long time and I'm not going into those reasons here but sufficient to say it had more to do with Covid that Iona, and won't affect Arvia. Additionally, Iona went to dry dock in Rotterdam twice before coming to Southampton. That is not happening with Arvia. Arvia is due to arrive at Ocean Terminal on Saturday 3 December.

Actually, you are both right. CPS have a pick/up & drop off parking compound (where their key hut is). However they also have longer term storage compounds. Following some changes when the port was empty during Covid, they have more space immediately next to the terminals. So when it comes to Iona cruises, your car was being parked in the collection compound all week long. With other cruises using the enlarged space for collections.

Not necessarily, you can get zero without stopping cruising as the US company can use the Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US. This allows the company to continue trading whilst it restructures its debt portfolio. This gets interesting being a dual listed company. I believe that they would need to delist from the LSE to achieve this. Equally, being an asset rich company, with a large amount of their debt secured against such assets, Chpt 11 might not achieve much. What is interesting is that the institutional analysts have basically come out and said that Carnival should have predicted this Q3 result, and the fact that Q4 isnt looking as good as it was. The lack of foresight has got them worried. Also, in their press release Carnival spoke of 2023 exceeding 2019 in some areas, yet on the analysts call, they were more cautious. Mixed messaging is never good for investor confidence. Q4 reporting is not going to set the world alight in January. So we're awaiting the end of Q1 which will be reported in late March/early April 2023. This is the quarter that includes the 'Wave' promotional period where cruise lines typically do a lot of business. Fuel pricing and any reemergence of Covid protocols are the key factors which look like stopping 2023 beating 2019. If Carnival can keep these in check then 2023 has a very positive outlook. If Q1 reports are good in April then you would expect the share-price should start making back a nice chunk of ground. From a longer term perspective, all the analysts agree that Carnival as a group are selling their cruises too cheap. Especially with the bundled offerings, they cruises are way too good value compared to land based vacations. Carnival are working through, brand by brand, to look at their value proposition and where they can increase their revenue. A great example is the Princess Plus and Princess Premium packages which have been wonderfully successful. The approach to this is interesting. You're encouraged to buy Princess Plus at £40 per day. When you consider that Wifi is £10 and Gratuities are say £15, capping your drink spend at £15 is seen as great value up front. However, that is then a sunk cost by the time people get on ship, they forget they've spent that. Passengers then get excited that they have 'free' drinks and therefore their cabin bill is minimal. This encourages passengers to then go shopping or pay for excurisons etc. Overall, Princess get increased spend all round. Also, it gives Princess something they can give away on promotion with relatively little base cost. On the call it was confirmed that P&O and Cunard have not yet been looked at from a value point of view. Paul Ludlow also confirmed to Travel Week in a recent interview that P&O were selling cruises too cheap (a necessary evil of nudging towards mass market?). So expect some prices rises, and maybe greater last minute discounting if voyages don't sell. In summary, the earnings call in April is going to be a somewhat crunch time for Carnival.

No. The industry is very much aligned.

This honesty scenario would partly be solved if P&O had randomised testing of, say, 5 or 10% of passengers at the terminal. Or even temperature checking. Once those prone to lying know there is a potential trap, it often becomes too stressful to lie and they revert to honest behaviours. But the processes in place at present encourages the dishonest behaviour and that where my issue lies.

Yes, bring these things back. I can not and am not speaking on behalf of the company. This is a personal view as all my posts are. You all know where to find the official ‘rules’ and I direct you to those so you are fully appraised. However, I feel uncomfortable that people are ignoring their Covid symptoms and going on cruises whilst others play honestly and miss out. It’s one thing when it’s easy to be financially compensated so that you’re only emotionally out of pocket, but now that’s not even the case. We now have an uneven playing field and it’s not right. I don’t believe that people are intentionally being misled regarding Covid onboard. I expect that Covid is on the ship in the same way that flu and the common cold and coughs are. However, unless it’s reported, the ship doesn’t know either. Finally, I did not have in mind anyone who may be immunosuppressed etc when making my comments. Naturally, I understand this puts you at my greater risk and my comments should not influence your better judgement on your condition.

I've not read the whole thread but would say this. Carnival Corp has said that they have now relaxed their rules equal to those of land based holidays... On that basis, (unless you are mandated to) don't test, don't suspect, don't disclose. Just go on holiday. If you get to the point on holiday that you feel you need assistance then ask they will ask to test you and the result will come as a "surprise". By all means, wear a mask if you're concerned about transmitting the virus. I can virtually guarantee that you won't be the only one hiding the virus. I know my stance on this will come as a surprise but its got too confusing and without mandatory testing, it will never be a level playing field between those who are honest and those who are not. We therefore have to get on with life. My stance also comes from knowing that the more serious cases of Covid is now manageable onboard until the next port of call where hospitalisation can occur if necessary.

And for Q3 you normally expect circa 107% capacity across 100% of the fleet. 85% of 92% is 78%. So still 30% down on max capacity.

Released 20 October General on sale 2/3 November. Loyalty tier priority on sale 1 November.