How Long do you think HAL Will be Sailing the Seas?

[prescottbob]

...I hope by then the 'As You Wish' versus the early & late dining seating seating arrangements are squared away, the formal dress code versus 'Smart Casual' is an item of the past and the smoker verus non-smoker issue(s) has been resolved.

 

Certainly five decades will do the trick, no?

 

"Beam me up Scottie!".

 

Bon Voyage & Good Health!

Bob:)

[LarryF]

I think it's only a matter of time before Walmart enters the cruise industry with their 1,000,000 ton maga ship called the Samwalmartdam. The ship will have every niche currently available on all other lines and will be able to offer volume pricing that will put every other cruise line out of business. On the caribbean itenerary you will be able to take a monorail from the aft of the ship located in Miami to the stern of the ship located in Nassau! :D

[djhsolara]

Seabourn is now a part of HAL.

 

 

Part of HAL or part of Carnival Corp?

[DeepWaterMariner]

This is our 43rd year of cruising. In the next 50 years you can bet there will be big changes to cruising. I don't know what these changes will be but based on our experience I know there will be many changes. If there is one thing I have learned over my life is that s**t happens and it isn't always good. My crystal ball sees cruising still existing but perhaps with a dwindling number of ships and passengers as other vacation options divide the leisure market. I also suspect that the price will be much higher relative to today due to the increasing price of labor as a result of globalization and expensive energy.

[sail7seas]

Part of HAL or part of Carnival Corp?

 

HAL..... same as Windstar used to be.

 

See Press Release dated January 7, 2011.

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/holland-america-line-welcomes-seabourn-to-seattle-113070194.html

[RevNeal]

A thread on another forum got me thinking about the really long term of the cruise industry and specifically HAL within it.

 

What's the future of HAL.... not 5 or 10 years but something like 50 years? Do you think people will still be cruising? Will the cruise industry fade due to lack of interest? How do they keep it stimulating and attractive?

 

As people get more sophisticated, more educated, travel far and wide, will it be on cruise ships?

 

This is an excellent, thought provoking question! Thanks for asking it.

While I doubt that the cruise industry will look the same in 2061 as it looks today, I nevertheless would be very surprised if ocean travel for both practical transportation and vacation cruising ceases to exist.

 

There will always be people who are in love with the sea, always people who want to travel and see new and different places and people, and always places that one cannot get to (easily, if at all) by air. Hence, ocean-going travel will be with us for a long long time to come. And, so long as HAL continues to provide a product that a lot of people want to buy -- so long as HAL maintains its passenger-base in the various niches of the market (demographically and, indeed, even geographically) that it seems best suited to command -- I believe HAL will continue.

 

In the past some have posted that HAL will run out of old people and, hence, will cease to exist. This is narrow-minded thinking at its most narrow -- if anything, over the next 50 years there will be more and more older people with both money and time to spend with leisure cruising. Hence, it is very smart for HAL to want to continue to appeal to this niche in the market while, at the same time, making adjustments to appeal to families and younger people. HAL can do both, for even young people enjoy the kind of ships, itineraries, and style of cruising that HAL has to offer. I write from personal experience.

 

As for ocean-travel for practical purposes, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw it reemerge as a viable segment of the industry over the next half-century. One of the things that killed the transatlantic service was the need for ever-faster transit between North America and Europe: no matter how fast a ship could cross the Atlantic, a jet could always do it faster. Traveling by air, the businessman could cross over, engage in commerce, and be on his return flight home before a ship could finish a single crossing (much less a round trip). This advantage of air travel both expedited business and enabled the business man to be out of contact with, and away from, the "home office" for a much shorter period of time. Ocean crossings just couldn't compete.

 

The world today is a much different place than it was in the 1960s, 70s and 80s. A great deal of business no longer requires personal presence: virtual presence via video-phone calls and the internet has made speedy business travel less important. With further declines in trans-atlantic business travel due to "virtual presence," and with the ability of business passengers aboard ship to maintain contact with the "home office" and with customers via satellite internet links, it is conceivable that leisure and business travel may well be able and willing to take longer to make the crossing thus opening up a growing segment of the travel market that desires a less strenuous method for crossing the ocean. For those who absolutely need to be there in-person, air and sub-orbital travel will be available; but for many others, slower, more comfortable travel methods may well become a more viable alternative.

 

Additionally, I'm not so sure that "cruising" in general, and HAL in particular, will be limited to just sea voyages in the later half of the 21st Cenutry. It may be that, by 2061, we will have the ability to take interplanetary cruises -- or, at least, 7-day round-trips to the moon. Might there be a space-borne Rotterdam on the 21-day Earth-Mars run in 2061? Who knows? I wouldn't mind buying a ticket for such a cruise ... but only if they still have Formal Nights. :D

[Himself]

HAL has been around for 138 years and I suspect the line might be around that much more time.

[Atomica]

HAL..... same as Windstar used to be.

 

See Press Release dated January 7, 2011.

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/holland-america-line-welcomes-seabourn-to-seattle-113070194.html

 

Both companies are still independent entities, though - they just happen to be sharing the same office space and some resources, much like Princess and Cunard used to.

 

As to where cruising will be in 50 years? Beats me. Just think: ten years ago, internet on cruise ships was pretty scarce; there were no iPhones, no Twitter, no Facebook, no Google...the list goes on. Cunard was a one-ship line. Princess was still part of P&O. HAL's Vista class was just a twinkle in their corporate eye. Grand Princess and Adventure of the Seas were duking it out to see who was bigger...

 

I think as the industry reinvents itself in the wake of the recession, and as cruisers look for voyages that offer better value, we'll see the opportunity for newer innovations and a larger focus on amenities and refurbishments, perhaps, than the massive newbuild programs many lines embarked on at the start of the last decade.

 

But who knows? ;)

[Tricia724]

Why are you even asking the question?

 

:) Beats me....... :D

I think it's interesting speculation.

 

Much more interesting than "Do you think I'll get a visit from the upgrade fairy" or "Tell me about the _____." (Fill in the name of any Dam ship.)

 

Two thoughts come to mind. The first one is that change is constant, and that cruising, as we now think of it, is a fairly recent concept. Before airlines became transport for the masses, people traveled great distances on ships because they had no other choice, but the sailings could hardly be called "cruises." Then came the great ocean liners which were not only used for transport but also carried people to/from Europe and the Continent with elegant service and entertainment, and the ship became a pleasurable experience and not just a means to an end for people who could afford the time and cost.

 

Today, ships have moved into a new realm. Pleasure cruising has now become a common pastime and has moved within the reach of the average person and not just the well-to-do. To this end the cruiselines have built massive ships. But there are signs (so we hear at Cruise Critic) of decline in the cruise experience, and with the increasing competition among cruiselines, at what point will cruising level off or move backwards?

 

My second thought is that there are emerging markets of colossal proportions (think China) that have not yet been tapped as consumers of just about everything, including cruises. Perhaps this will be the cruise market of 2060. I won't be here, so I'll never really know, but what I do know is that cruising, if it is still in existence, will not be the same as it is today.

 

What will happen to HAL? I don't know. I suspect it all depends upon foresight and flexibility. I'm a traditionalist, so I hope they hang in there, but maybe some of those young Dutch officers should start learning Chinese.;)

[Zyzygy]

at lower per person fuel cost than airplanes, I think there will be a cruise line industry.

 

Higher fuel costs may actually aid Caribbean cruising. Not everyone is going to be able to fly to Fiji.

 

One issue is whether cruise ships become so large and "land-like" that they render ports of call obsolete.

 

A recent NYT review of Allure of the Seas referred to it as "floating land", because it contains so many land-like attractions. It is already such a huge mega-ship that it can only dock at three ports on a week-long cruise.

 

I select cruises for a balance between the ship and the itinerary. So long as itinerary matters in the market, there will be cruises as a means to get there.

 

The industry has been developing so many of its own piers and new ports of call (e.g. Costa Maya, Roatan, Grand Turk, etc.) in recent years that I expect itineraries to continue to be fresh and varied in the Caribbean for some time to come.

 

If oil becomes so expensive that it causes the economy to crash, however, as it largely did during the 1970's, then people won't be able to get to the embarkation ports, much less sail from them.

 

Still, I think the industry is going to last a long time. The industry could survive for at least 40 years just using the ships it already has and refurbishing them from time to time.

[Hlitner]

Interesting topic. We are not sure why the OP is thinking the cruise industry will have problems in the next few years. The industry continues to grow in all segments and has managed to hold their own even in a horrid world economy. Improvments in marine technology has made newer ships much more efficient (and profitable). As to HA, one must keep in mind it is simply one product of CCL (the worlds largest cruise corporation) which seems to be doing quite fine and the stock has more then doubled in value since Feb 2009.

 

Hank

[off2ctheworld]

Fascinating thoughts looking forward 50 years. My thought is travel will be very different than now within 20 years. There is something about the water that draws humans to it, so some type of water travel will exist in my opinion. Pendulum change just may go back to smaller ships, fewer passengers, higher costs.

 

Just hope to be cruising for many years.

[serendipity1499]

Seabourn is now a part of HAL.

 

 

HAL..... same as Windstar used to be.

 

See Press Release dated January 7, 2011.

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/holland-america-line-welcomes-seabourn-to-seattle-113070194.html

 

Are you sure that Seabourn has become part of HAL..The press release still indicates that both will be independent entities which will share a sales/reservations force as well as headquarters & the technical resources in Seattle..

According to the Press release: Quote Seabourn and Holland America Line will maintain independent brand management teams at their joint headquarters in Seattle while leveraging efficiencies from shared resources including a unified field sales force and state of the art technology platforms. Quote At the end it states that: Quote Our exclusive alliance also includes Carnival Cruise Lines, Cunard Line, Princess Cruises, Costa Cruises and Seabourn. Unquote

It goes on to say that Richard Meadows , who is now & will continue to be a Exec. VP of Marketing,Sales & Guest Programs with Holland, will assume the Presidency of Seabourn, which leads me to believe that he will answer to Carnival Corp,& PLC rather than Stein Kruse..

This IMO is much like what some of the smaller European Airlines did in the 60's & 70's..

For instance Austrian Airlines shared space with Sabena Airlines in the United States..Austrain maintained their own Sales/Reservation teams, yet they shared Headquarters, Reservations space, Communications, & ticket offices with Sabena..

As far as HAL still being there 10 -20 years from now, we can only hope so & I think that for them this move to share headquarters is a win win situation for them...It will save lots of $$$$ & help their bottom line..Both lines will dominate the Pacific Coast..

But as another poster stated, those of us who still enjoy the Formal nights, excellent Service, Fantastic Crew & wonderful food may not be able to cruise 10-20 years from now...I honestly don't believe that the new crop of Baby Boomer's will be as happy with the Formality which HAL is known for...I see it changing on the shorter cruises already..

We went out for dinner with Friends last weekend to a lovely new Italian Restaurant..Although most of us in the Seniors age group were nicely dressed, many younger people were in jeans, shorts etc..;) As a matter of fact one of our Main Streets was blocked off for "Bike Night"...There were very beautiful & very expensive bikes parked out there ,,,Many of those same Baby Boomer's clad in jeans & leather were spending their hard earned $$$ in this lovely restaurant, rather than in the local bars.. Times are changing & very quickly..

Cheers... :)Betty

[peaches from georgia]

Seabourn is not a part of HAL. The relocation of Seabourn headquarters from Miami to Seattle and the official announcement of shared resources says nothing of the kind.

[Archie's Mom]

I have always had one big concern with cruise lines , especially in the US. That is the wages and benefits offered the international crew. If US lines paid the crew what they pay their US workers and gave them insurance and other benefits, few of us could afford the price of a cruise. We are now in a time of global competition with the US not the brightest economic star any longer. Will people from other countries who now must work the long hours for low pay on cruise ships to support their families back home have better options in the future? Could cruise employees ever unionize? Will lines be forced to pay better wages, thus totally changing the model for cruise affordability? Just a thought on the future.

[Oceanwench]

Seabourn is now a part of HAL.

 

 

 

No, you are wrong, Seabourn is not a "part" of HAL.

They are just sharing some resources.

 

It was a BIG story down here when it happened, and I remember watching several reports on it as Seabourn pulled out of South Florida and headed to Seattle.

 

The cruise industry is very important to Florida, so it was front and center here.

[sail7seas]

The connection is rather like when Windstar was 'part of HAL'.

With Mr. Rick Meadows serving in high capacity for both companies, are they really arms length? There are other HAL employees working for both.

 

[cruisin'girl]

The connection is rather like when Windstar was 'part of HAL'.

With Mr. Rick Meadows serving in high capacity for both companies, are they really arms length? There are other HAL employees working for both.

 

Using that logic it could just as easily be said that Holland America is now a part of Seabourn. Carnival used the word "independent" so that there would be no misunderstanding that each cruiseline is still a separate entity and neither has taken over the other.

[DeepWaterMariner]

I have always had one big concern with cruise lines ' date=' especially in the US. That is the wages and benefits offered the international crew. If US lines paid the crew what they pay their US workers and gave them insurance and other benefits, few of us could afford the price of a cruise. We are now in a time of global competition with the US not the brightest economic star any longer. Will people from other countries who now must work the long hours for low pay on cruise ships to support their families back home have better options in the future? Could cruise employees ever unionize? Will lines be forced to pay better wages, thus totally changing the model for cruise affordability? Just a thought on the future.[/quote']

 

And to carry this a step further, in 50 years will Americans be the waiters and room stewards on HAL serving those that we think of as emerging markets today?

[HeatherInFlorida]

The plot thickens! Take what you would think is a topic that would be mere speculation without contentious debate, add a dash of this one and that one and sure as heck we'll end up with something of a debate.:) The only time we get a thread without a debate around here is when someone we love is in trouble and then, thank goodness, we rally 'round just as you do around family.

 

I post only to point out to those who read here and believe that some people have their finger on the pulse more than others that misinformation abounds and no one is exempt from being wrong.

 

As a Windstar enthusiast since 1990, I can say with some certainty that we cannot compare the Seabourne/HAL affiliation with the Windstar/HAL situation. First of all, when Windstar came under HAL's wings, HAL was not owned by Carnival so right away it's a whole different story.

 

Holland America actually purchased Windstar in 1988 ...it was bought and paid for by Holland America prior to Carnival purchasing HAL later that year or the following year. Completely different than the sharing of resources that we're seeing between Seabourne and HAL.

 

Seabourne is not "part" of HAL. If anything, it is "part" of Carnival just as HAL is, but I'm going to hazard the guess that it will continue to act indepently from Carnival much like HAL does (although Seabourne is many strides ahead of HAL in the high end category).

 

Carnival lists Seabourne right on its homepage so there's no debate there that I can see (though I'm sure someone will figure a way;))

[world~citizen]

I have always had one big concern with cruise lines ' date=' especially in the US. That is the wages and benefits offered the international crew. If US lines paid the crew what they pay their US workers and gave them insurance and other benefits, few of us could afford the price of a cruise. We are now in a time of global competition with the US not the brightest economic star any longer. Will people from other countries who now must work the long hours for low pay on cruise ships to support their families back home have better options in the future? Could cruise employees ever unionize? Will lines be forced to pay better wages, thus totally changing the model for cruise affordability? Just a thought on the future.[/quote']

 

That takes us to what a crew member should be paid and union vs. non-union and a whole new thread really.

 

Whatever happens in this "post global" or whatever we call the economy we are in now, lets hope a rising economic tide will raise all boats.

 

Will HAL be part of the economy moving into the future? Sure. Why not?

 

Smooth sailing...

[woodofpine]

And to carry this a step further, in 50 years will Americans be the waiters and room stewards on HAL serving those that we think of as emerging markets today?

 

Absolutely... and the Brits and Aussie non tippers will be below decks maintaining the engines!:D

[peaches from georgia]

Carnival has been way too successful with their niche family of cruiselines to start mixing apples and oranges. Sharing facilities and an executive who is experienced enough to understand the needs and offerings of 2 different cruiselines, serving both in different capacities, is one thing, but that is a far cry from merging 2 different business cultures into one entity. Defeats Carnival's whole niche approach as HAL and Seabourn are worlds apart, apples and oranges.

[ironin]

Carnival has been way too successful with their niche family of cruiselines to start mixing apples and oranges. Sharing facilities and an executive who is experienced enough to understand the needs and offerings of 2 different cruiselines, serving both in different capacities, is one thing, but that is a far cry from merging 2 different business cultures into one entity. Defeats Carnival's whole niche approach as HAL and Seabourn are worlds apart, apples and oranges.

 

While I tend to agree with the sentiments, it seems to me that recent announcements of job changes/new titles/new hires repeated here on CC reflect the reality that there are very few, if any, executives left whose sole responsibility is Seabourn. I could be wrong, but it looks like the changes are far from being the one person at the top only. True, they can operate the two lines as separate entities, but there's no denying the fact that Seabourn is now being run from Seattle which in turn reports to CCL HQ whereas before Seabourn was being independently run from Miami and reporting direct to CCL HQ.

[peaches from georgia]

While I tend to agree with the sentiments, it seems to me that recent announcements of job changes/new titles/new hires repeated here on CC reflect the reality that there are very few, if any, executives left whose sole responsibility is Seabourn. I could be wrong, but it looks like the changes are far from being the one person at the top only. True, they can operate the two lines as separate entities, but there's no denying the fact that Seabourn is now being run from Seattle which in turn reports to CCL HQ whereas before Seabourn was being independently run from Miami and reporting direct to CCL HQ.

Both cruiselines being in Seattle on Elliott Ave does not mean that Seabourn in any way is not still a separate entity under the CCL banner and a very different cruiseline from HAL. Nor has there been hint by CCL of Seabourn being a "part of HAL'. Will Seabourn benefit financially from sharing facilities and some resources? No doubt.