RCI comments on Hurricane Sandy

[waxing witch]

we're supposed to be at coco cay on tuesday. i'm not familiar with how long seas are rough after a storm... does anyone think tendering will be possible/safe?

 

and of course, while i'm on the cruise trying to have a good time, my home is on the extreme south shore of long island, five blocks inland and between two canals. sigh.

[vicocala]

Latest discussion:

 

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012

1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

 

STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR

CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES

SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF

THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION. USING A BLEND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL AND

SFMR WINDS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT YIELDS A CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL

INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AT

LEAST SLIGHT WEAKENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL

MODELS SHOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS VERY

LIKELY DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW

SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE

CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION

PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL

AT 96 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF

THE TRANSITION. REGARDLESS...WHETHER SANDY IS OFFICIALLY TROPICAL

OR POST-TROPICAL AT LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE

IMPACTS.

 

LATEST FIXES FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION

WITH THE CENTER APPEARING TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT

MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO ESCAPE THE

INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TO BEGIN TO MOVE

NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC

NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIG AS

IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72 HOURS. THE FLOW ON THE

NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK

FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO

THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT

FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST

COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT 26/1500Z 26.7N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

36H 28/0000Z 30.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

72H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

96H 30/1200Z 39.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H 31/1200Z 40.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[vicocala]

we're supposed to be at coco cay on tuesday. i'm not familiar with how long seas are rough after a storm... does anyone think tendering will be possible/safe?

 

and of course, while i'm on the cruise trying to have a good time, my home is on the extreme south shore of long island, five blocks inland and between two canals. sigh.

 

I would think doubtful, first they will have cleanup to do. Secondly, it doesn't take much in the way of wave action for the tenders to cancel out. I was told they did not make it in the weekend before my cruise of the 15th.

[dara99]

I've just got off the Monarch - we didn't land at Coco Cay this week as it was unsafe for the tenders and last night the Captain got permission for us to dock early at Canaveral - we were docked by about 1a. It was wavy - I love that though - but I've been in wayyyyy worse. I have no clue where the ships that are leaving from Canaveral today, will sail to...

[SnappyNappi]

I didn't see this posted yet, but there are some itinerary changes because of Sandy this weekend...

________________________________

Tropical Weather Update

October 26, 2012 - 10:00 a.m. E.S.T

 

Royal Caribbean International continues to closely monitor the path and progress of Hurricane Sandy to ensure guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises, and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm. The safety of our guests and crew is always our foremost concern.

 

Given Hurricane Sandy's current location and projected path, and our need to prepare CocoCay, Bahamas, for the weather impact, Majesty of the Seas and Monarch of the Seas will not call on CocoCay this weekend.

 

We encourage guests sailing on Oasis of the Seas this Saturday, October 27, and Explorer of the Seas on Sunday, October 28, continue to monitor this website for any additional updates.

 

If you have not done so already, we strongly suggest guests complete their online check-in as soon as possible, including the section on your preferred method of contact while traveling.

[not2old]

Unfortunatly. The post I made yeasterday has changed. The Jewel will be waiting out Sandy in Virginia (friday) not Charleston.

Norfolk,really?? Where was she headed and how long wil she be here??

[negc]

Unfortunatly. The post I made yeasterday has changed. The Jewel will be waiting out Sandy in Virginia (friday) not Charleston.

That will certainly come as a shock to the passengers on the Jewel of the Seas who are spending this Friday in Halifax, NS and the passengers who will be boarding the Jewel for its repositioning cruise out of Boston this Sunday. They are concerned about any impact that Sandy may have on their sailing but they won't be waiting anything out in Norfolk or Charleston. (There is a section of Boston called Charlestown but the only ship there is "Old Ironsides":D)

Perhaps you have the wrong ship or the wrong cruiseline in mind.:confused:

[Disneycrazymom]

To clear any confusion I just talked to my mother who is on the Jewel right now. She is in port in Maine shopping right now. Enjoying the day! They are to dock in Boston on Sunday. They are doing a back to back and will remain on the ship for the 2 week repositioning cruise. She said the captain told them they are monitoring the storm but have made no changes as of right now.

[jpg1747]

It's not just the Caribbean cruisers that are being affected by this. A lot of us are flying out of airports in Sandy's path on our way to Rome to board the Mariner for our TA.

[jcaccountant]

It's not too bad out here in Ft. Lauderdale, it's partly cloudy and not too windy. It stopped raining about 2 hours ago and we even had some sun. I think the worst is over on land. I don't know about the seas.

[71Corvette]

I'm surprised they haven't mentioned anything about Explorer leaving out of Bayonne, and toward Bermuda, on Sunday. Seems like they'll be heading right into the middle of it.

[dolfinmusic]

I'm surprised they haven't mentioned anything about Explorer leaving out of Bayonne, and toward Bermuda, on Sunday. Seems like they'll be heading right into the middle of it.

 

 

I'm on the Explorer this Sunday.....:eek: :)

[kaykels]

Me too, I'm on Explorer as well and I can't imagine how they are planning on out-running this storm. It has a 600 mile wing-span and headed up the coast. Nowhere to run! If we head north, it will catch up to us. I guess we could stay east and head for Africa. I wish they would just cancel it!

Life lesson... always get the trip insurance the same week you book so you cancel for any reason!

I can't imagine a good scenario!

[SBAnt]

Brilliance is scheduled to dock in Bayonne on Friday. I think our entire roll call is anxiously watching Sandy's path.

[A&L_Ont]

We are on Allure right now in Cozumel. I am sitting by the beach pool with cold drinks. It is hot and sunny.

 

We skipped Falmouth due to the storm. It was a bit rough but not bad by any means. For those sailing on her this coming week she is safe and sound. Captain Johnny took good care of her.

 

Andrew

[ckfred]

I'm curious about the Jewel. It arrives in Boston on Sunday on its last New England/Canada cruise. Then, it leaves for a repositiong cruise to the Caribbean that winds up in Tampa.

 

Based on the schedule, it would be sailing into the hurricane as it makes landfall on Monday.

 

Would the ship stay docked in Boston or sail around in the Gulf of Maine before heading south?

[OCruisers]

I'm curious about the Jewel. It arrives in Boston on Sunday on its last New England/Canada cruise. Then, it leaves for a repositiong cruise to the Caribbean that winds up in Tampa.

 

Based on the schedule, it would be sailing into the hurricane as it makes landfall on Monday.

 

Would the ship stay docked in Boston or sail around in the Gulf of Maine before heading south?

 

Many of us will also be interested in what they decide to do.

 

~~~~~~~

[edjny]

I'm surprised they haven't mentioned anything about Explorer leaving out of Bayonne, and toward Bermuda, on Sunday. Seems like they'll be heading right into the middle of it.

 

We are also on the Explorer on Sunday.... :eek: The latest update on RCL website states to monitor the website for additional updates. I do not think they know quite what to do yet. The forecast for Sandy has it coming ashore somewhere in NJ. But the wave height forecast has the biggest waves east and south of LI. On the 29th, they forecast 15 meter (49 feet) wave height. That would be enough to put the 2nd, 3rd and maybe the 4th deck cabin windows under water.... :eek: :eek:

 

Wave height forecast..

 

If they sail east, they hit the biggest waves. If they sail south, they go right into the storm. :confused:

[rwdnj]

Unfortunatly. The post I made yeasterday has changed. The Jewel will be waiting out Sandy in Virginia (friday) not Charleston.

 

Think you've got your "Jewels" screwed up.:eek:

You might wanna post that on the NCL board.:p

[negc]

I'm curious about the Jewel. It arrives in Boston on Sunday on its last New England/Canada cruise. Then, it leaves for a repositiong cruise to the Caribbean that winds up in Tampa.

 

Based on the schedule, it would be sailing into the hurricane as it makes landfall on Monday.

 

Would the ship stay docked in Boston or sail around in the Gulf of Maine before heading south?

 

More likely it will simply sail due East and then head south when it is far enough away from the worst effects of the storm. The most recent projected tracks I have seen show Sandy making landfall much further south along the East Coast than predicted earlier. If that is the case Jewel should be able to remain on schedule and, with a relatively minor adjustment of its route, be well east of the storm when it makes landfall. Whatever happens, it isn't likely that the ship will sail directly "into the hurricane" We have sailed with Captain James and he is quite capable of keeping the ship and its passengers and crew quite safe.

Last year the positioning of Irene was much closer to the port of Boston when we sailed and despite the high winds and heavy seas that stalled our progress, everyone pretty much managed the experience quite well. The further south that the projections take the storm, the more room we will have to avoid its worst.:)

[reney313]

Looks like Enchantment is going to miss Bermuda:

 

Enchantment of the Seas will not be able to call on Kings Wharf, Bermuda, as originally scheduled. Instead, the ship will sail out to sea in an effort to try to find the calmest seas possible.

[Familygoboston]

I'm curious about the Jewel. It arrives in Boston on Sunday on its last New England/Canada cruise. Then, it leaves for a repositiong cruise to the Caribbean that winds up in Tampa.

 

Based on the schedule, it would be sailing into the hurricane as it makes landfall on Monday.

 

Would the ship stay docked in Boston or sail around in the Gulf of Maine before heading south?

 

Most ships don't want to ride out a storm in port, that's far more dangerous! They usually look to leave port (or are forced to by Port Authorities) and get out away from the storm. In the case of Jewel, they would be headed south into the storm, but as NEGC mentions, it may be possible for them to get east of the storm before it hits the NE coast Monday and Tuesday. My parents are doing this in their car- headed back to FL on Sunday, but going west into the PA mountains hoping to skirt the storm.;)

Jewel has a lot of time to make deviations with a 2 week cruise, so I'm sure those folks will barely notice!

[Rasvar]

My parents are doing this in their car- headed back to FL on Sunday, but going west into the PA mountains hoping to skirt the storm.;)

!

 

I wish them luck on that but that may not be far enough west. Pittsburgh is suppose to be hideous weather Sunday through Tuesday/Wednesday. It won't be a fun drive.

[DragonOfTheSeas]

Most ships don't want to ride out a storm in port, that's far more dangerous! They usually look to leave port (or are forced to by Port Authorities) and get out away from the storm. In the case of Jewel, they would be headed south into the storm, but as NEGC mentions, it may be possible for them to get east of the storm before it hits the NE coast Monday and Tuesday. My parents are doing this in their car- headed back to FL on Sunday, but going west into the PA mountains hoping to skirt the storm.;)

Jewel has a lot of time to make deviations with a 2 week cruise, so I'm sure those folks will barely notice!

I hope they do not get caught in a snow storm in the mountains. They are currently calling for heavy wet snow in WV, Va and PA this weekend.

[negc]

Most ships don't want to ride out a storm in port, that's far more dangerous! They usually look to leave port (or are forced to by Port Authorities) and get out away from the storm. In the case of Jewel, they would be headed south into the storm, but as NEGC mentions, it may be possible for them to get east of the storm before it hits the NE coast Monday and Tuesday. My parents are doing this in their car- headed back to FL on Sunday, but going west into the PA mountains hoping to skirt the storm.;)

Jewel has a lot of time to make deviations with a 2 week cruise, so I'm sure those folks will barely notice!

 

I'm not so sure we'll"hardly notice",:D but I do agree that they would prefer to put to sea rather than brave the storm in port and heading east for a distance should allow them to avoid much of the storm's impact. At five o'clock on Sunday the storm should still be far enough away that the Jewel can leave port and be well out to sea ahead of the storm. We aren't scheduled to arrive in our first port of call (St. Thomas) until Wednesday and the Jewel's top speed is between 23 and 25 knots so if the captain chooses a further routing he can probably still keep to our original schedule. The way the projected path of Sandy seems to change hourly only proves how difficult it is to know this far in advance exactly what will happen. To paraphrase our favorite football coach: It will be what it will be.:D