Royal Caribbean, largest brand by 2021

[Spring Valley]

http://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/9232-royal-caribbean-international-largest-brand-by-2021.html

 

Looks like it will take till 2021 for Royal to overtake Carnival as the brand with the largest passenger capacity!:D

 

Keith

[UCF_Knight]

The report must make a lot of assumptions. RCI has 3 ships currently on order and that's it. They do have options for 3 more (2 more Quantum class and 1 more Oasis class), but there are no guarantees those options will be exercised. For instance, RCI had an option for a 4th Freedom class ship and didn't exercise it. They also had an option for building what would have been the 5th and 6th Radiance class ships and didn't exercise those options either.

 

It is all contingent on the health of the global economy in general and RCI's cruise bookings in particular. It is also contingent on Carnival as well. Maybe they go on a hot streak and start building a lot of new vessels.

[tugboat]

The report must make a lot of assumptions. RCI has 3 ships currently on order and that's it. They do have options for 3 more (2 more Quantum class and 1 more Oasis class), but there are no guarantees those options will be exercised. For instance, RCI had an option for a 4th Freedom class ship and didn't exercise it. They also had an option for building what would have been the 5th and 6th Radiance class ships and didn't exercise those options either.

 

It is all contingent on the health of the global economy in general and RCI's cruise bookings in particular. It is also contingent on Carnival as well. Maybe they go on a hot streak and start building a lot of new vessels.

 

Carnival sure have been on a hot streak lately, just the wrong way:eek:

[UCF_Knight]

Carnival sure have been on a hot streak lately, just the wrong way:eek:

 

Right. But if they can go the next 4 years without another "poop cruise" maybe people will forget about it and they'll have strong bookings again. Then maybe they'll order a few new megaships to stay ahead of RCI in total berths in 2021.

[orville99]

The report must make a lot of assumptions. RCI has 3 ships currently on order and that's it. They do have options for 3 more (2 more Quantum class and 1 more Oasis class), but there are no guarantees those options will be exercised. For instance, RCI had an option for a 4th Freedom class ship and didn't exercise it. They also had an option for building what would have been the 5th and 6th Radiance class ships and didn't exercise those options either.

 

It is all contingent on the health of the global economy in general and RCI's cruise bookings in particular. It is also contingent on Carnival as well. Maybe they go on a hot streak and start building a lot of new vessels.

 

 

With four new ships on order (3 RCL and 1 TUI), The capacity will go up around 800,000 pax/year once they are all delivered. That means RCL only has to add one more ship in the next 8 years to hit the 1MM increase reported in the article. IMO, Not a big stretch:)

[UCF_Knight]

With four new ships on order (3 RCL and 1 TUI), The capacity will go up around 800,000 pax/year once they are all delivered. That means RCL only has to add one more ship in the next 8 years to hit the 1MM increase reported in the article. IMO, Not a big stretch:)

 

The TUI ship would not be included in the 1 million passenger per year (31%) increase projected in the article. It is specifically talking about the Royal Caribbean brand and not any other brands (Celebrity, Pullmantur, etc) owned by the company.

[tugboat]

Right. But if they can go the next 4 years without another "poop cruise" maybe people will forget about it and they'll have strong bookings again. Then maybe they'll order a few new megaships to stay ahead of RCI in total berths in 2021.

 

A lot of maybe's Carnival seems to find new ways to stump their toes.:eek:

[orville99]

The TUI ship would not be included in the 1 million passenger per year (31%) increase projected in the article. It is specifically talking about the Royal Caribbean brand and not any other brands (Celebrity, Pullmantur, etc) owned by the company.

 

 

OK, but even if you limit to the RCL brand, just the two Quantum class and a third oasis class would add about 750,000 pax a year (4200+4200+6000x52). A third quantum class sized ship would bring the total to about 950,000. Not a real stretch.

[MAHA]

Still would like to see some more smaller ships like the Radiance class.

[Sass4]

I thought I read somewhere that Carnival owns RCCL or is the parent company?

[Scotty G]

I thought I read somewhere that Carnival owns RCCL or is the parent company?

 

Wrong!

 

See here: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=103045&p=irol-shareholderbenefit

[Clarea]

I thought I read somewhere that Carnival owns RCCL or is the parent company?

Carnival tried to buy Royal, I think in the late 80's, but failed.

[UCF_Knight]

I thought I read somewhere that Carnival owns RCCL or is the parent company?

 

No. Carnival and Royal Caribbean are (sometimes bitter) rivals.

 

Maybe you are thinking of the fact that Celebrity is owned by Royal Caribbean.

[UCF_Knight]

OK, but even if you limit to the RCL brand, just the two Quantum class and a third oasis class would add about 750,000 pax a year (4200+4200+6000x52). A third quantum class sized ship would bring the total to about 950,000. Not a real stretch.

 

Methinks you are forgetting about ships leaving the fleet. Majesty will for sure be gone by then. 3 of the 6 Vision class ships would be 25 or more years old by 2021 if they were still around. That is older than any ship in the current fleet, so it is likely one or more will be gone. All I'm saying is a 30% increase in fleet capacity in 8 years is a very optimistic projection given the continued worldwide economic uncertainty.

 

There will have been a 4 year hiatus in new builds between Allure and Quantum. If we see a similar hiatus after the current 3 ships on order are completed, the fleet capacity won't be all that much greater in 2021 if you account for at least 3 or 4 older ships being sent out to pasture by then.

[orville99]

Methinks you are forgetting about ships leaving the fleet. Majesty will for sure be gone by then. 3 of the 6 Vision class ships would be 25 or more years old by 2021 if they were still around. That is older than any ship in the current fleet, so it is likely one or more will be gone. All I'm saying is a 30% increase in fleet capacity in 8 years is a very optimistic projection given the continued worldwide economic uncertainty.

 

There will have been a 4 year hiatus in new builds between Allure and Quantum. If we see a similar hiatus after the current 3 ships on order are completed, the fleet capacity won't be all that much greater in 2021 if you account for at least 3 or 4 older ships being sent out to pasture by then.

I thoroughly expect that as those ships are replaced, their replacements will follow the current model of a 50%+ increase in capacity. Also there hasn't really been a building hiatus, just a brand hiatus. RCCL built three Celebrity ships in that span.

[orville99]

OK, but even if you limit to the RCL brand, just the two Quantum class and a third oasis class would add about 750,000 pax a year (4200+4200+6000x52). A third quantum class sized ship would bring the total to about 950,000. Not a real stretch.

 

Which was just ordered today...getting to be less of a stretch every day:D

[Spring Valley]

Which was just ordered today...getting to be less of a stretch every day:D

 

Now Royal just needs to excercise it's option on the forth Oasis class ship for 2017 and the forth Quantum ship in 2018 and they would easily beat Carnival.:D

 

Keith