Spring Valley Posted May 22, 2013 #1 Share Posted May 22, 2013 http://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/9232-royal-caribbean-international-largest-brand-by-2021.html Looks like it will take till 2021 for Royal to overtake Carnival as the brand with the largest passenger capacity!:D Keith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UCF_Knight Posted May 22, 2013 #2 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The report must make a lot of assumptions. RCI has 3 ships currently on order and that's it. They do have options for 3 more (2 more Quantum class and 1 more Oasis class), but there are no guarantees those options will be exercised. For instance, RCI had an option for a 4th Freedom class ship and didn't exercise it. They also had an option for building what would have been the 5th and 6th Radiance class ships and didn't exercise those options either. It is all contingent on the health of the global economy in general and RCI's cruise bookings in particular. It is also contingent on Carnival as well. Maybe they go on a hot streak and start building a lot of new vessels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tugboat Posted May 22, 2013 #3 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The report must make a lot of assumptions. RCI has 3 ships currently on order and that's it. They do have options for 3 more (2 more Quantum class and 1 more Oasis class), but there are no guarantees those options will be exercised. For instance, RCI had an option for a 4th Freedom class ship and didn't exercise it. They also had an option for building what would have been the 5th and 6th Radiance class ships and didn't exercise those options either. It is all contingent on the health of the global economy in general and RCI's cruise bookings in particular. It is also contingent on Carnival as well. Maybe they go on a hot streak and start building a lot of new vessels. Carnival sure have been on a hot streak lately, just the wrong way:eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UCF_Knight Posted May 22, 2013 #4 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Carnival sure have been on a hot streak lately, just the wrong way:eek: Right. But if they can go the next 4 years without another "poop cruise" maybe people will forget about it and they'll have strong bookings again. Then maybe they'll order a few new megaships to stay ahead of RCI in total berths in 2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare orville99 Posted May 22, 2013 #5 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The report must make a lot of assumptions. RCI has 3 ships currently on order and that's it. They do have options for 3 more (2 more Quantum class and 1 more Oasis class), but there are no guarantees those options will be exercised. For instance, RCI had an option for a 4th Freedom class ship and didn't exercise it. They also had an option for building what would have been the 5th and 6th Radiance class ships and didn't exercise those options either. It is all contingent on the health of the global economy in general and RCI's cruise bookings in particular. It is also contingent on Carnival as well. Maybe they go on a hot streak and start building a lot of new vessels. With four new ships on order (3 RCL and 1 TUI), The capacity will go up around 800,000 pax/year once they are all delivered. That means RCL only has to add one more ship in the next 8 years to hit the 1MM increase reported in the article. IMO, Not a big stretch:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UCF_Knight Posted May 22, 2013 #6 Share Posted May 22, 2013 With four new ships on order (3 RCL and 1 TUI), The capacity will go up around 800,000 pax/year once they are all delivered. That means RCL only has to add one more ship in the next 8 years to hit the 1MM increase reported in the article. IMO, Not a big stretch:) The TUI ship would not be included in the 1 million passenger per year (31%) increase projected in the article. It is specifically talking about the Royal Caribbean brand and not any other brands (Celebrity, Pullmantur, etc) owned by the company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tugboat Posted May 22, 2013 #7 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Right. But if they can go the next 4 years without another "poop cruise" maybe people will forget about it and they'll have strong bookings again. Then maybe they'll order a few new megaships to stay ahead of RCI in total berths in 2021. A lot of maybe's Carnival seems to find new ways to stump their toes.:eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare orville99 Posted May 22, 2013 #8 Share Posted May 22, 2013 The TUI ship would not be included in the 1 million passenger per year (31%) increase projected in the article. It is specifically talking about the Royal Caribbean brand and not any other brands (Celebrity, Pullmantur, etc) owned by the company. OK, but even if you limit to the RCL brand, just the two Quantum class and a third oasis class would add about 750,000 pax a year (4200+4200+6000x52). A third quantum class sized ship would bring the total to about 950,000. Not a real stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAHA Posted May 22, 2013 #9 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Still would like to see some more smaller ships like the Radiance class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sass4 Posted May 23, 2013 #10 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I thought I read somewhere that Carnival owns RCCL or is the parent company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty G Posted May 23, 2013 #11 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I thought I read somewhere that Carnival owns RCCL or is the parent company? Wrong! See here: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=103045&p=irol-shareholderbenefit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarea Posted May 23, 2013 #12 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I thought I read somewhere that Carnival owns RCCL or is the parent company? Carnival tried to buy Royal, I think in the late 80's, but failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UCF_Knight Posted May 23, 2013 #13 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I thought I read somewhere that Carnival owns RCCL or is the parent company? No. Carnival and Royal Caribbean are (sometimes bitter) rivals. Maybe you are thinking of the fact that Celebrity is owned by Royal Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UCF_Knight Posted May 23, 2013 #14 Share Posted May 23, 2013 OK, but even if you limit to the RCL brand, just the two Quantum class and a third oasis class would add about 750,000 pax a year (4200+4200+6000x52). A third quantum class sized ship would bring the total to about 950,000. Not a real stretch. Methinks you are forgetting about ships leaving the fleet. Majesty will for sure be gone by then. 3 of the 6 Vision class ships would be 25 or more years old by 2021 if they were still around. That is older than any ship in the current fleet, so it is likely one or more will be gone. All I'm saying is a 30% increase in fleet capacity in 8 years is a very optimistic projection given the continued worldwide economic uncertainty. There will have been a 4 year hiatus in new builds between Allure and Quantum. If we see a similar hiatus after the current 3 ships on order are completed, the fleet capacity won't be all that much greater in 2021 if you account for at least 3 or 4 older ships being sent out to pasture by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare orville99 Posted May 23, 2013 #15 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Methinks you are forgetting about ships leaving the fleet. Majesty will for sure be gone by then. 3 of the 6 Vision class ships would be 25 or more years old by 2021 if they were still around. That is older than any ship in the current fleet, so it is likely one or more will be gone. All I'm saying is a 30% increase in fleet capacity in 8 years is a very optimistic projection given the continued worldwide economic uncertainty. There will have been a 4 year hiatus in new builds between Allure and Quantum. If we see a similar hiatus after the current 3 ships on order are completed, the fleet capacity won't be all that much greater in 2021 if you account for at least 3 or 4 older ships being sent out to pasture by then. I thoroughly expect that as those ships are replaced, their replacements will follow the current model of a 50%+ increase in capacity. Also there hasn't really been a building hiatus, just a brand hiatus. RCCL built three Celebrity ships in that span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare orville99 Posted May 30, 2013 #16 Share Posted May 30, 2013 OK, but even if you limit to the RCL brand, just the two Quantum class and a third oasis class would add about 750,000 pax a year (4200+4200+6000x52). A third quantum class sized ship would bring the total to about 950,000. Not a real stretch. Which was just ordered today...getting to be less of a stretch every day:D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spring Valley Posted May 30, 2013 Author #17 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Which was just ordered today...getting to be less of a stretch every day:D Now Royal just needs to excercise it's option on the forth Oasis class ship for 2017 and the forth Quantum ship in 2018 and they would easily beat Carnival.:D Keith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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