We are entering the heart of hurricane season

[Hurricane Expert]

During the average year, the most active part of hurricane season stretches from mid August through about the third week of October. The second week of September is the peak.

 

As of today, Monday, August 18 there are no major threats. There is one tropical wave well southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that I'll be watching in the Atlantic, and a new tropical system west of Mexico that should stay well west of the Baja.

[KirkNC]

So far it has not been too bad.

[Hurricane Expert]

A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Windwards is looking a bit more organized. It may be something to follow for the western Caribbean or maybe even the Gulf several days down the road. No need to be concerned at this point.

[venuti82413]

Please keep us updated! I am cruising 8/31.

 

Thanks for your input!

[mac21902]

I cruise the second week of September should i be worried? Our cruise is southern Caribbean.

[Hurricane Expert]

No need to worry at this point. Check back 5-7 days before the cruise.

[MSan914]

We are on carnival breeze August 24....stops in Key West. Cozumel and Grand a Cayman. Any rain in the forecast????

[Hurricane Expert]

We are on carnival breeze August 24....stops in Key West. Cozumel and Grand a Cayman. Any rain in the forecast????

 

96L will stay east of that area. This time of year there's always a chance for a storm or a passing shower.

[MandyMooToo]

No need to worry at this point. Check back 5-7 days before the cruise.

 

August 31st departure...Nassau, St. Thomas and St. Maartin...should we be concerned???

[kcarrots1]

leaving Fort Lauderdale on Thursday 8/28 - to Grand Turks. Any concerns for us?

[Hurricane Expert]

There are no other concerns other than 96L at this time, but tropical cyclones can develop in a fairly short time. The models are useful in the long range (5 days out or more) - when they are long track that form off of the coast of Africa. Even in the heart of hurricane season, the chances are fairly low that a significant tropical cyclone will be in a certain location on a certain day. Most of the time the cruises can go to another more suitable destination.

[greenline]

Do you see any weather patterns that could form September 12-18 off the coast of North Carolina to Bermuda.

 

Thanks,

ERS

 

 

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[Hurricane Expert]

Do you see any weather patterns that could form September 12-18 off the coast of North Carolina to Bermuda.

 

Thanks,

ERS

 

 

Hi ERS, This is really impossible to tell at this time. I wrote a recent post describing how long range forecasts more than 5-7 days out really aren't that useful. There's just too many variables that could change a tropical cyclone track significantly. If an upper air trough is a little weaker or stronger it could send the system in a different direction and throw off its timing.

 

I would suggest checking back in that 5-7 day time frame for a general forecast.

[greenline]

I will do that thank you for getting back to me so fast. I will check back with you.

 

 

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[Maryqueenii]

Anything foreseen for upcoming cruise leaving this Sunday out of miami to the eastern Caribbean?

 

Thanks

[Hurricane Expert]

Nothing interesting at this time.

[greenline]

Is it to early to ask now how weather around Bermuda will be starting around 9/12--9/18. Thanks

 

 

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[Hurricane Expert]

Is it to early to ask now how weather around Bermuda will be starting around 9/12--9/18. Thanks

 

 

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It really doesn't do too much good to look at forecasts much before 5 days out IMO. Check back in a few days and let me know the itinerary.

[mac21902]

Just wanted to follow up on the request. We leave this Sunday from San Juan, then head to the islands. Any possibilities of hurricanes?

[Hurricane Expert]

Just wanted to follow up on the request. We leave this Sunday from San Juan, then head to the islands. Any possibilities of hurricanes?

 

 

I assume that you are taking a trip toward the east or south? The islands are in all directions. :-) It looks like the typical trade wind scattered showers or a storm. By Wednesday a tropical wave or disturbance is predicted to move near or northeast of the Leewards.

 

Bon Voyage!

[mac21902]

I'm sorry I should've mentioned Southern Carribean lol.

[greenline]

Ok 3 days out for our cruise on 9/12/14 to Bermuda are there any concerns for storms in area of Bermuda for days. Of 9/12 thru 9/18. Will be in port there 9/15,16,17. Thanks for the help.

 

 

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[michellephg]

We're headed to Cozumel, Mexico, George Town, Grand Cayman, and Falmouth, Jamaica - does it look like we will have decent weather?

[Hurricane Expert]

I can only say that nothing is on the models for the beginning of the trip. I assume that this will be a seven day cruise and that the latter part of the trip will be over 10 days away. The western Caribbean can have tropical systems develop over the area more quickly than the eastern Caribbean.

 

This time of year it is common to see scattered showers / storms across the Caribbean.

[Southerngal410]

We leave for the Bahamas next Monday, 29th for a 4nt cruise. How's the weather looking?

 

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