Hurricane Expert Posted August 18, 2014 #1 Share Posted August 18, 2014 During the average year, the most active part of hurricane season stretches from mid August through about the third week of October. The second week of September is the peak. As of today, Monday, August 18 there are no major threats. There is one tropical wave well southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that I'll be watching in the Atlantic, and a new tropical system west of Mexico that should stay well west of the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirkNC Posted August 18, 2014 #2 Share Posted August 18, 2014 So far it has not been too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Expert Posted August 19, 2014 Author #3 Share Posted August 19, 2014 A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Windwards is looking a bit more organized. It may be something to follow for the western Caribbean or maybe even the Gulf several days down the road. No need to be concerned at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
venuti82413 Posted August 19, 2014 #4 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Please keep us updated! I am cruising 8/31. Thanks for your input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac21902 Posted August 21, 2014 #5 Share Posted August 21, 2014 I cruise the second week of September should i be worried? Our cruise is southern Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Expert Posted August 22, 2014 Author #6 Share Posted August 22, 2014 No need to worry at this point. Check back 5-7 days before the cruise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSan914 Posted August 22, 2014 #7 Share Posted August 22, 2014 We are on carnival breeze August 24....stops in Key West. Cozumel and Grand a Cayman. Any rain in the forecast???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Expert Posted August 22, 2014 Author #8 Share Posted August 22, 2014 We are on carnival breeze August 24....stops in Key West. Cozumel and Grand a Cayman. Any rain in the forecast???? 96L will stay east of that area. This time of year there's always a chance for a storm or a passing shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare MandyMooToo Posted August 22, 2014 #9 Share Posted August 22, 2014 No need to worry at this point. Check back 5-7 days before the cruise. August 31st departure...Nassau, St. Thomas and St. Maartin...should we be concerned??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcarrots1 Posted August 22, 2014 #10 Share Posted August 22, 2014 leaving Fort Lauderdale on Thursday 8/28 - to Grand Turks. Any concerns for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Expert Posted August 22, 2014 Author #11 Share Posted August 22, 2014 There are no other concerns other than 96L at this time, but tropical cyclones can develop in a fairly short time. The models are useful in the long range (5 days out or more) - when they are long track that form off of the coast of Africa. Even in the heart of hurricane season, the chances are fairly low that a significant tropical cyclone will be in a certain location on a certain day. Most of the time the cruises can go to another more suitable destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenline Posted August 27, 2014 #12 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Do you see any weather patterns that could form September 12-18 off the coast of North Carolina to Bermuda. Thanks, ERS Sent from my iPad using Forums mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Expert Posted August 28, 2014 Author #13 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Do you see any weather patterns that could form September 12-18 off the coast of North Carolina to Bermuda. Thanks, ERS Hi ERS, This is really impossible to tell at this time. I wrote a recent post describing how long range forecasts more than 5-7 days out really aren't that useful. There's just too many variables that could change a tropical cyclone track significantly. If an upper air trough is a little weaker or stronger it could send the system in a different direction and throw off its timing. I would suggest checking back in that 5-7 day time frame for a general forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenline Posted August 28, 2014 #14 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I will do that thank you for getting back to me so fast. I will check back with you. Sent from my iPhone using Forums mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maryqueenii Posted August 28, 2014 #15 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Anything foreseen for upcoming cruise leaving this Sunday out of miami to the eastern Caribbean? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Expert Posted August 29, 2014 Author #16 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Nothing interesting at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenline Posted September 4, 2014 #17 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Is it to early to ask now how weather around Bermuda will be starting around 9/12--9/18. Thanks Sent from my iPad using Forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Expert Posted September 4, 2014 Author #18 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Is it to early to ask now how weather around Bermuda will be starting around 9/12--9/18. Thanks Sent from my iPad using Forums It really doesn't do too much good to look at forecasts much before 5 days out IMO. Check back in a few days and let me know the itinerary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac21902 Posted September 4, 2014 #19 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Just wanted to follow up on the request. We leave this Sunday from San Juan, then head to the islands. Any possibilities of hurricanes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Expert Posted September 5, 2014 Author #20 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Just wanted to follow up on the request. We leave this Sunday from San Juan, then head to the islands. Any possibilities of hurricanes? I assume that you are taking a trip toward the east or south? The islands are in all directions. :-) It looks like the typical trade wind scattered showers or a storm. By Wednesday a tropical wave or disturbance is predicted to move near or northeast of the Leewards. Bon Voyage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac21902 Posted September 5, 2014 #21 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I'm sorry I should've mentioned Southern Carribean lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenline Posted September 8, 2014 #22 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Ok 3 days out for our cruise on 9/12/14 to Bermuda are there any concerns for storms in area of Bermuda for days. Of 9/12 thru 9/18. Will be in port there 9/15,16,17. Thanks for the help. Sent from my iPad using Forums mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michellephg Posted September 21, 2014 #23 Share Posted September 21, 2014 We're headed to Cozumel, Mexico, George Town, Grand Cayman, and Falmouth, Jamaica - does it look like we will have decent weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Expert Posted September 22, 2014 Author #24 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I can only say that nothing is on the models for the beginning of the trip. I assume that this will be a seven day cruise and that the latter part of the trip will be over 10 days away. The western Caribbean can have tropical systems develop over the area more quickly than the eastern Caribbean. This time of year it is common to see scattered showers / storms across the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southerngal410 Posted September 22, 2014 #25 Share Posted September 22, 2014 We leave for the Bahamas next Monday, 29th for a 4nt cruise. How's the weather looking? Sent from my SGH-M919 using Forums mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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