Congrats to NCL, you have innovated again!

[WMQueenie]

Carnival is usually always the cheapest of the lines. I think it's historically been that way.

 

Not always...I almost always go with the best price at the time I want to go.

[swedish weave]

Frank Del Rio is the founder of Oceania, and this pricing model is exactly what Oceania has always done. It has always been best to book early, and there has never been a significant price drop as the cruise nears. The ships have always sailed full or nearly so.

 

This was so successful that Oceania, which was founded in 2002 with just $14 Million in capital and sailed its maiden voyage in July, 2003, was sold to Apollo Management in 2007 for nearly $1 Billion for 70% of the company! No other cruise line has ever achieved that success in just 4 years.

 

After Apollo purchased Regent Seven Seas in 2008, they rolled that cruise line and Oceania into a new division, Prestige Cruise Holdings, and moved Frank Del Rio and his staff into place to manage both cruise lines. Regent was not in great shape -- they had not been sailing full. Mr. Del Rio applied the Oceania pricing model to Regent, and it succeeded spectacularly. When the general economy collapsed and the other luxury cruise lines were dropping their prices in a desperate attempt to attract guest, Regent held their price but began to offer free excursions and free hotel stays the night before the cruise. It worked -- Regent ships sailed full without a significant drop in revenue.

 

Now, NCL Holdings has purchased Prestige, and NCL, Oceania and Regent are "sister" cruise lines. Apollo Management, as the largest shareholder, has once again seen fit to move Frank Del Rio and many of his staff to head up the entire holding company. Mr. Del Rio, in turn, has appointed long-time associate Jason Montague as President of Oceania and Regent, assuring there will be few changes there, and long-time NCL stalwart Andy Stuart to President of NCL. They have begun the process of remodeling NCL's revenue to the model that has been so successful at Oceania and Regent, the model that PokerPro5 has so well described.

 

Of course, Regent is super expensive -- but it always has been. It's completely all-inclusive with included airfare (business class in the upper suites), hotel stays, all alcoholic beverages except the priciest wines (the over $100 per bottle stuff), excursions, etc. Oceania is also more expensive than mainstream cruise lines like NCL, but includes airfare, all non-alcoholic beverages, all specialty restaurants and the best food at sea. By the way, both are "freestyle" in the sense that all dining is open seating and timing.

 

NCL appeals to a different demographic, at a lower price point but with many more guests. Young families and children are permitted on Regent and Oceania but not often seen (there are no children's programs on those cruise lines). It is my observation, however, that when school is in session, and cruises longer than 7 days, the guests on NCL are no different than those on Oceania. In fact, despite my 169 days (so far) on Oceania, and 17 on Regent, I'm Platinum on NCL. The revenue model should work just as well on NCL, at a lower price point.

 

Is it good for guests? Most Oceania and Regent sailings have something like 70% repeat guests; many have a greater percentage. I expect the same for NCL as the "old guard" angry folks get weeded out and the more thoughtful begin to appreciate the differences.

 

The SEC filings by Oceania and Regent belie your praise. The last figures available show losses in the last three years.

 

The advertisements available show up to 75% discounts on fares for Oceania. That would serve to explain the ships sailing full.

 

Check the amount of debt NCL took on when they "purchased" the two luxury lines.

 

Another factor to question is why Genting surrendered two positions on the board of directors, sold 6.250 million shares of NCLH and purchased a competing luxury cruise line. Genting backed away from the major position by the sale.

 

Maybe it is not as rosy as it seems .

Edited April 14, 2015 by swedish weave

[punkincc]

<snip>

They have begun the process of remodeling NCL's revenue to the model that has been so successful at Oceania and Regent, the model that PokerPro5 has so well described.

<snip>

Is it good for guests? Most Oceania and Regent sailings have something like 70% repeat guests; many have a greater percentage. I expect the same for NCL as the "old guard" angry folks get weeded out and the more thoughtful begin to appreciate the differences.

 

 

Appreciate what differences?

 

I fail to see anything the new management has brought that was not already there and the main draw to most mainstream, not premium, cruisers, ( Freestyle concept, great entertainment, low base cruise fares and pay as you go for what is important to you). The only thing the new management has brought is a new "revenue model".

 

Of course I want my favorite cruise lines to be financially successful, or else they will go out of business. But do I want them made over into a mini Oceana and Regent? And is that what other mainstream cruisers are looking for when they are ready to book their next cruise?

 

Most experienced cruisers are smart enough to see through the "raise the cruise fare but offer a "free" package priced at $400 if you bought it, but actual usage may only get them $200 worth of value. I know what I spend on drinks, and it's not $400.

 

And many people are either not able to book far in advance, or the cruise fare is the deciding factor regardless of the timing. When they start comparing fares, are they going with full price NCL or one of the other lines who are having a sale. We love a good sale, just ask J C Penney customers. The company practically went broke when they did away with sales.

 

This pricing model may work for premium cruisers, but not sure it will work for mainstream. Are there enough non savvy cruisers out there to keep the ships full for the foreseeable future?

Edited April 14, 2015 by punkincc

[laurabegorrah]

We sailed on the Epic in early March, last minute (booked one week prior), in a mini suite with the unlimited beverages for a nice price. We had a great time and though the ship was full, the only place you noticed it, was at the pool. Didn't see any rowdy drunk people at all, and we bar hopped quite a bit. We are also not big drinkers, but enjoyed trying different kinds of drinks. We loved it so much that we booked the Haven for the Med in May and have had no trouble with booking dinner reservations or shore excursions. We went on Royal Caribbean Oasis in December and would say that NCL is doing a much better job of providing a wonderful cruise experience. Don't knock it until you try it. Washy washy :)

 

It's good to get the perspective of people who have been sailing since the new promos have taken affect. I was also a bit worried about trying to get seating in the specialty dinning and an over abundance of drunkards. But as someone else mentioned, other than suites, most people had to choose, and for most, the OCB and/or DSC free are much more appealing.

 

I'm really curious to see if this trend continues as we get into the thick of the sailings that will have a large portion of the ship booked under the new promos. Mostly, to see if specialty dinning becomes harder to get into.

[Cauzneffct]

You can always have it changed to the beverage package, just speak with your TA or PCC.

 

 

Rochelle

 

Yeah, we called to get a price drop and they asked if we wanted to keep the free DSC. My wife claims she'll only have a drink every other day or so, so we kept it. I have a feeling that cruising with a then-17 month old may require a few more sanity-saving drinks than she's counting on.

Edited April 14, 2015 by Cauzneffct

[sparks1093]

Appreciate what differences?

 

I fail to see anything the new management has brought that was not already there and the main draw to most mainstream, not premium, cruisers, ( Freestyle concept, great entertainment, low base cruise fares and pay as you go for what is important to you). The only thing the new management has brought is a new "revenue model".

 

Of course I want my favorite cruise lines to be financially successful, or else they will go out of business. But do I want them made over into a mini Oceana and Regent? And is that what other mainstream cruisers are looking for when they are ready to book their next cruise?

 

Most experienced cruisers are smart enough to see through the "raise the cruise fare but offer a "free" package priced at $400 if you bought it, but actual usage may only get them $200 worth of value. I know what I spend on drinks, and it's not $400.

 

And many people are either not able to book far in advance, or the cruise fare is the deciding factor regardless of the timing. When they start comparing fares, are they going with full price NCL or one of the other lines who are having a sale. We love a good sale, just ask J C Penney customers. The company practically went broke when they did away with sales.

 

This pricing model may work for premium cruisers, but not sure it will work for mainstream. Are there enough non savvy cruisers out there to keep the ships full for the foreseeable future?

 

Those words could have come from my own keyboard. No interest here on sailing Oceania-lite.

[rochelle_s]

Yeah, we called to get a price drop and they asked if we wanted to keep the free DSC. My wife claims she'll only have a drink every other day or so, so we kept it. I have a feeling that cruising with a then-17 month old may require a few more sanity-saving drinks than she's counting on.

 

I know it would for me! :D For me it's probably just a sign of age.;)

 

Have a fabulous time on your cruise with the little one! :)

 

 

Rochelle

[mking8288]

Those words could have come from my own keyboard. No interest here on sailing Oceania-lite.

 

Same here - there's no such thing as a free lunch with these promo giveaways, it's priced all in, IMO. We don't drink so UBP is out, don't need nor want to do just UDP so take that out; and, reverse the DSC - that's the real baseline cost for cruising ... don't need a math wiz to figure that out.

 

Peak seasons, school breaks & holidays - the odds for success isn't out of the question, off-season with milky runs out of Miami with every line's mega ships trying to fill the cabins & let's see who will blink & discount those cabins in the middle of winter, and, fly in & out ... Ooops, free RT airs until airlines cancelled flights & FAA issued ground stops.

 

Unlike airlines, what's NCL going to do with the fleet of older ships ... can't just ground them & drop anchor in the habour & run the ops with just 4 mega ships in 2016.

Edited April 14, 2015 by mking8288

[cliffd64]

Appreciate what differences?

 

I fail to see anything the new management has brought that was not already there and the main draw to most mainstream, not premium, cruisers, ( Freestyle concept, great entertainment, low base cruise fares and pay as you go for what is important to you). The only thing the new management has brought is a new "revenue model".

 

Of course I want my favorite cruise lines to be financially successful, or else they will go out of business. But do I want them made over into a mini Oceana and Regent? And is that what other mainstream cruisers are looking for when they are ready to book their next cruise?

 

Most experienced cruisers are smart enough to see through the "raise the cruise fare but offer a "free" package priced at $400 if you bought it, but actual usage may only get them $200 worth of value. I know what I spend on drinks, and it's not $400.

 

And many people are either not able to book far in advance, or the cruise fare is the deciding factor regardless of the timing. When they start comparing fares, are they going with full price NCL or one of the other lines who are having a sale. We love a good sale, just ask J C Penney customers. The company practically went broke when they did away with sales.

 

This pricing model may work for premium cruisers, but not sure it will work for mainstream. Are there enough non savvy cruisers out there to keep the ships full for the foreseeable future?

I see these kinds of posts and can't understand where you are seeing "raise the cruise fare" to cover these costs. It simply isn't the case at least for the cruises I would choose.

 

Granted I try to cruise in off season time frames, but today I shopped around for a caribbean cruise out of San Juan on the Gem in fall of 2016... and 4 of us traveling partners could share a 2 Bedroom Suite with Balcony (SC) for only $1096 per person! That includes ALL FOUR promotions, representing several hundred dollars in savings. Where is this supposed price raise? We have the same category on the Star exactly one year earlier and its actually $400 more per person! Again, where is the price raising? We had the same room on the Gem in 2013 and it was $500 MORE per person with NO promotional items. For $1096 per person, you'd be foolish not to take the suite life in this case and get all the promotional items :)

 

In this case, this is a WIN-WIN-WIN-WIN-scenario - lower price, free beverages, free specialty restaurants, free gratuities, free shore excursion credits - honestly... I can't find a comparable deal anywhere else.

Edited April 14, 2015 by cliffd64

[hawkeyetlse]

Each of us has a limited amount of time to watch prices, and we are all looking at different destinations, times of year, ships, stateroom categories, etc. Some of us plans ahead, some look for last minute deals, etc. So none of us is in a position to declare that NCL's prices have gone up or down or in any direction across the board just from casual observation. The only source of data I know of based on published prices for all cruises is a competitor site that many of us use. According to this site, this is how balcony prices on NCL compare to other cruise lines over time:

 

What I see is that NCL used to be consistently the 2nd cheapest line, after Carnival, but their prices have been creeping up since late 2011. There was a spike in prices in the last part of 2014, but according to this graph, current prices have gone back down to about where they were 12-18 months ago.

[SissasMomE]

This was good for a laugh this morning.

 

Agreed. We are paying less for our Escape cruise than we did on Getaway, and both were booked a year in advance. Add in the free UBP, and they might as well be paying us to cruise for this trip LOL

Edited April 14, 2015 by SissasMomE

[dallas16]

Thanks to ncl, I'm getting two weeks in the mediterranean in an outside cabin all inclusive with flights and hotels for £900 per person (three sharing) and the prices were a lot cheaper than similar cruises on royal caribbean or princess :)

[hpecorari]

NCL, the inventor of Freestyle Cruising, has done something that is likely to be noticed soon by other cruise lines.

 

Their 2015 pricing model has been a smashing success, and has changed the way cruise inventory is sold.

 

I knew it would be successful, but I had no idea it would be THIS successful.

 

Basically, NCL has found a way to sell most of their staterooms early, and get people to pay high prices for them. Last minute and "14-55 day" bargains are now difficult to come by, especially for non-inside cabins.

 

After the laughable "all inclusive" disaster of 2014, NCL retooled the concept into the now-familiar "Choose Your Included Item" promotion of 2015.

 

NCL has also made it much cheaper to stuff additional people in your stateroom. Before, this would carry a nonsensically high price -- often more than it would be to buy these people their own inside cabin! Now you can add people for either half price or frequently just NCF+taxes.

 

At the same time, rates are much closer to the dreaded "brochure rates", and the prices are staying pretty constant. Rooms are selling out before any "dumping" becomes necessary on most sailings.

 

For example, look at the two Boston sailings on the Dawn this September. One (Sept 25) is COMPLETELY SOLD OUT, while September 11th has no more balcony rooms left. And we're only in April! WOW!

 

So what's the big innovation?

 

NCL has finally found a way to avoid the industry-wide practice of dumping rooms in the inside/oceanview/balcony categories.

 

They have accomplished this by decreasing revenue for:

 

- Specialty restaurants

- Beverage package

- Shore excursions

- DSC

- Additional people in stateroom

 

And while they give some of the above for free/cheap, this has enabled a much higher price point for the cruise fare, especially for the rooms which used to sell super-cheap.

 

This goes completely against the longstanding price model of cruising, where you pay relatively little, get no extras included, and charge onboard the things that you find you want/need which are not included. In fact, at the lower category rooms, the base fare was seen as a loss leader. Not anymore.

 

This was brilliant, as the "inclusions" don't cost them that much, and yet they make far more with the higher cruise fares they are now charging (and the avoidance of dumped rooms).

 

For example, the Ultimate Beverage Package costs them relatively little per customer, but they charge a lot for it. So now people get it for free on this promotion (if they choose that option), but many of them otherwise wouldn't have bought it anyway. And yet all of these people are paying substantially more in cruise fare, and believe they're getting a great deal because of what the UBP normally costs.

 

This situation, of course, is bad for the price-conscious NCL consumer. But it's great for NCL.

 

In an interesting twist, those with casino "free cruise" certificates (well, actually "free" means taxes+NCF) are now getting a lot more value, because base fare is so much more these days, and you're not likely to find many last minute bargains anymore.

 

The cruise I just booked would have been $4100 for the balcony stateroom I got, and I paid like $670 for taxes+NCF for 2.

 

With all due respect, I read your post 3 times and came to the conclusion that "I just don't care"!.

 

I've got an 11 day cruise for two booked in an SE for $549.27 per person with all perks offered. I'm happy!

 

Harriet

[DreamingBig1]

Agreed. We are paying less for our Escape cruise than we did on Getaway, and both were booked a year in advance. Add in the free UBP, and they might as well be paying us to cruise for this trip LOL

 

That's what I have been thinking. I don't know what people are talking about, because it certainly doesn't feel like I am getting a bad deal.

[DreamingBig1]

Each of us has a limited amount of time to watch prices, and we are all looking at different destinations, times of year, ships, stateroom categories, etc. Some of us plans ahead, some look for last minute deals, etc. So none of us is in a position to declare that NCL's prices have gone up or down or in any direction across the board just from casual observation. The only source of data I know of based on published prices for all cruises is a competitor site that many of us use. According to this site, this is how balcony prices on NCL compare to other cruise lines over time:

 

What I see is that NCL used to be consistently the 2nd cheapest line, after Carnival, but their prices have been creeping up since late 2011. There was a spike in prices in the last part of 2014, but according to this graph, current prices have gone back down to about where they were 12-18 months ago.

 

That's a good piece of evidence.

[$hip$hape]

I have no problem with the price of regular rooms up to a mini suite. The Haven seems to be overpriced IMO.

I can go on a real luxury line for similar dollars.

This comment about the QM2 made me smile:

A Luxury Liner is not for the likes of working class people.

One has to have a liking for the finer things in life. Ordinary people would not like the activities here. Working class people would be better suited to package holiday by a pool.

I fear they would not appreciate the quality of entertainments offered.

[Love2Cruz2015]

Not quite...their "super low" rate is higher than both RC and Carnival, add the upcharges and it's hardly a bargain...maybe they can fool a newcomer..but that's about it. I cancelled my Getaway booking once they started to play their games and booked a Carnival in it's place. I saved $600 and upgraded to a balcony with CCL.

 

Not fooling anyone with half a brain.

[clcjdn]

In an interesting twist, those with casino "free cruise" certificates (well, actually "free" means taxes+NCF) are now getting a lot more value, because base fare is so much more these days, and you're not likely to find many last minute bargains anymore.

 

I have found this to be true so far......my CAS bookings are lower than my CCL offers (except that 1 time a year or so when I get a CCL comp). I look at it like I am getting 2 or 3 for 1 when I book.....CAS Rates (1), KSF (2), and whichever perk I use, currently UBP so I don't have to pay for drinks at any point (3). I may make out better financially with one of the other choices, but IMO the value of not buying drinks when the casino is closed makes me smile. :)

 

Based on this, I assume you believe that the Choice promo will continue each month unless something happens with their financials?

[pokerpro5]

I made the original post late at night after completing a 300+ mile drive, so I think I might have been unclear about something.

 

Prior to 2015, I had long advocated the "book late, not early" strategy to get the best deals on inside/oceanview/balcony rooms on NCL. You can read the link in my signature to get more details on my strategy, which used to work spectacularly well to save big. Booking early was rarely an advantage, unless you were in a suite or cruising a super-popular date/itinerary that wasn't likely to need to dump rooms.

 

Basically, NCL had two large flaws in their pricing model which could be exploited (legally) by observant cruisers:

 

1) They would drastically reduce balcony/oceanview/inside cabin prices sometime between 14-55 days before sailing, and this happened pretty reliably. So you could just wait for this and snag amazingly good bargains.

 

2) Buying an inside cabin at its lowest price point for your 3rd and 4th passengers was often cheaper than adding them to your existing stateroom! This caused people to book "throwaway" inside cabins simply to save money on their additional people, and would waste space on the ship which NCL could have otherwise sold.

 

Both of these flaws have now been corrected. The NCL bargain shopper has been mostly thwarted.

 

What hasn't changed that much? The "booking early" price on many sailings remains the same (that is, high), though it has gone up on some sailings which were already fairly popular, and these new "freebies" have put bookings over the top.

 

The days of seeing $1500-per-person balcony rooms dumped for $649 per person are sadly over.

 

The days of getting $799-per-person insides for $249 are also over.

 

You may get a few good deals late, but nothing like it was before 2015, and you are now seriously risking the ship selling out, whereas prior to this year it was unusual on most sailings for balconies/insides/oceanviews to sell out months in advance, aside from super-popular dates.

 

Someone asked how inside cabins could have been affected by this, as they don't qualify for anything but a $25 OBC. I believe we are seeing a trickle-down effect of both the higher-prices and sold-out categories. People who would otherwise have bought balcony rooms or oceanviews are now finding themselves priced out (or they are unavailable), and take insides instead. I also think that people are still grabbing the insides because they like the ability to cram additional family members in there for cheap. Believe it or not, many families of 4 actually stuff themselves into a single inside cabin. I would find that to be torture, but many claim they are fine with it.

 

If you are not seeing a difference in prices between this year and last year, then one of the following is true:

 

1) You are on a sailing which was very popular and always sold out early, so rooms were never dumped.

-or-

2) You have always paid too much for your cruise and didn't realize it, so everything appears normal.

-or-

3) You lucked into a particular itinerary which is still fairly cheap at the moment.

 

But trust me, it has changed a lot -- especially when it comes to 14-55 day bargain shopping.

[pokerpro5]

I have found this to be true so far......my CAS bookings are lower than my CCL offers (except that 1 time a year or so when I get a CCL comp). I look at it like I am getting 2 or 3 for 1 when I book.....CAS Rates (1), KSF (2), and whichever perk I use, currently UBP so I don't have to pay for drinks at any point (3). I may make out better financially with one of the other choices, but IMO the value of not buying drinks when the casino is closed makes me smile. :)

 

Based on this, I assume you believe that the Choice promo will continue each month unless something happens with their financials?

 

Yes, I believe it will stay the same for awhile, with minor tweaks here and there.

 

We have seen this "Choice" promo for the entirety of 2015. It keeps "ending" and then immediately restarting under very similar terms.

 

This is different than NCL's prior promos, which would be very different from one another, and often vastly vary in value for the average cruiser.

 

It now looks like Choice is the new normal for NCL.

[pokerpro5]

With all due respect, I read your post 3 times and came to the conclusion that "I just don't care"!.

 

I've got an 11 day cruise for two booked in an SE for $549.27 per person with all perks offered. I'm happy!

 

Harriet

 

That's a great price, but I'm sure you got it from CAS, which doesn't apply to this discussion.

[clcjdn]

Yes, I believe it will stay the same for awhile, with minor tweaks here and there.

 

We have seen this "Choice" promo for the entirety of 2015. It keeps "ending" and then immediately restarting under very similar terms.

 

This is different than NCL's prior promos, which would be very different from one another, and often vastly vary in value for the average cruiser.

 

It now looks like Choice is the new normal for NCL.

 

Thanks for your insight! I probably owe you a beer or something. :)

[maywell]

Pokerpro5- I think this is new normal for spring/summer sailings but fall/winter sailings later this year might be different story especially for regular 7 day Caribbean sailings. Remember, spring/summer is the peak seasons and fall/winter is the off-peak in the Carbibean, it might still be buy last-minute after September/ October for 7 days. Now, trips sailing longer than that might not go down because its unusual iternary or sold out. Guess, we'll find out later this year how the prices will go...

 

Sent from my SGH-T399 using Tapatalk

[pokerpro5]

Pokerpro5- I think this is new normal for spring/summer sailings but fall/winter sailings later this year might be different story especially for regular 7 day Caribbean sailings. Remember, spring/summer is the peak seasons and fall/winter is the off-peak in the Carbibean, it might still be buy last-minute after September/ October for 7 days. Now, trips sailing longer than that might not go down because its unusual iternary or sold out. Guess, we'll find out later this year how the prices will go...

 

For the most part, "peak season" is a myth when it comes to cruising.

 

Are there "peak dates"? Certainly. Christmas, New Years, and Thanksgiving cruises tend to sell much better and are more expensive for that reason.

 

But there aren't peak seasons, as cruise lines are pretty good at allocating the number of ships they need at each port at each time of year. And some itineraries stop entirely during what would otherwise be the low season.

 

It is true that, with Alaska, June/July/August is more popular than May/September (due to weather), but even the May cruises are selling out now, thanks to their 2015 Choice promotion.

[Synderela]

We are cruising on to New England/Canada in Sept on NCL. We wanted a balcony cabin on the cruise week that is sold out. We wound up on the earlier cruise so we could get a balcony. I think the high occupancy on these cruises may have to do with how limited they are. Only a few cruises in this area during this time. Not like constantly going to the warm islands.