How Many Years Will They Sail?

[sail7seas]

How many years would HAL hope to be able to sail the Statendam class ships? How old gets to be too old?

 

We were on both Veendam and Maasdam in the past year (and are booked for Ryndam in April and another set of back-to-backs on Maasdam in August) . Veendam and Maasdam both are in remarkably excellent condition.....as to interior spaces. I have no idea about engines/electronics etc and that is why I ask.

 

We love those ships so much and they seem to be in such good shape, is it reasonable to think they can sail another ten years?

[shaver]

absolutly, but maybe not with hal. maintenance is so important for anything to last long. i drive a 1993 lexus and it is showroom new and was built with an engine to last several hundreds of miles. if something routine goes wrong i correct it.

 

on the other hand, ships like keeping up with the jones'. it's what they do to older ships (retiring the old westerdam) to keep up with those jones'.

 

time will tell.

[RevNeal]

So long as there are no government safety standards or equipment-upgrade issues that crop up and make the ships prohibitively expensive to maintain and operate, I suspect at least some of the S-class ships will remain in service for at least an additional decade (or more). HAL won't remove them from service until such time as they have newbuilds to replace them, and right now there's NOTHING in the pipeline.

[RevNeal]

it's what they do to older ships (retiring the old westerdam) to keep up with those jones'.

 

The old Westerdam was transferred to one of HAL's sister lines which operates more extensively in a different market, where she'll sell better. Right now there is NO problem selling the S-class, and I doubt that there will be any time soon.

[bruceh4]

The S class ships are relatively new by ship standards, being less that 15 years old. Look at the QE2 which is believe it or not at the ripe old age of 30. The last time I took and engine room tour (pre 9/11) The engine room was immaculate , I have no reason to doubt that they are still the same. The big question would be would HAL build that size ship again given the recent direction? I know that if they didnt there would be a whole group of customers that would be upset:eek: I for one have tried the vista class and much prefer the S and R class ships. But as is the case in most mega corporations who listens to the customer anymore:mad:

[dougnewmanatsea]

Another ten years... Let's see... In ten years STATENDAM will be 22 years old.

 

All things - market conditions, etc. - remaining equal, I'd say we're probably looking at eight to twelve years before the first S-class ship leaves HAL. So ten years is quite feasible.

 

The last ships sold by Carnival were CARONIA (31 years old at time of sale), VICTORIA (35 at time of sale), PACIFIC PRINCESS (31 at time of sale), and COSTA RIVIERA (38 at time of sale). And three of the four were sold for further trading outside of Carnival. (COSTA RIVIERA went for scrap but would almost certainly have gone on to a new owner if it weren't for high fuel prices.)

 

Going along with this theme, the oldest ships within Carnival are QE2, COSTA MARINA, and COSTA ALLEGRA. All three are 36 years old, and will probably stay within the Carnival group at least until age 40. (Yes, all three of these ships have had substantial conversions in the past 20 years, but COSTA MARINA still has her original engines.)

 

I believe Carnival's official financial calculations are based on the assumption of a ship's life being 30 years, all owned by Carnival, which I view as slightly pessimistic. The 30 years with Carnival part might be fairly realistic but as for the actual life of modern ships, we could well be looking at 35 to 40 years even though most are not actually designed to go on for more than 30. But this all depends on market conditions! The ships that are in the 30 to 35 year old range now, were almost all built on a shoestring budget, almost as "disposable ships" that were supposed to last perhaps 20 years. These early 1970s are almost all still around and market conditions are causing some of their owners to plan with the expectation of keeping them until very near their 50th birthdays. That's roughly 2.5 times their intended design lives! By the same token, lots of ships that probably could have gone on to age 50 pretty easily went to the breakers' at 10 to 20 years old in the '70s. So my view is that longevity is decided far more by market forces than anything physical. If it is absolutely necessary, one can keep a ship going for a virtually indefinite amount of time. The only thing that isn't market-related that can cause a ship's demise is legislation like the Greek 35-year rule, which simply says that you cannot operate a ship over x number of years old and that's that. Otherwise, everything is controlled by the market as ships are very rarely truly "beyond repair". Now, there is certainly such a thing as "beyond economic repair" - but just what "economic repair" is depends on market forces! If there is a big enough shortage of ships, then suddenly almost anything is "economic repair". A situation like this can lead to very long lives for ships that really have no right to have them. But assuming that things stay as they are today, one can pretty safely peg the life of a modern cruise ship at 35 to 40 years.

 

Now, will the S-class ships stay with HAL until they're 35 or 40 years old... No, this is very unlikely. Will they stay with Carnival that long - possibly, but almost certainly at some other brand. Will they still be around in some form at that age - well, it's certainly plausible, but it will be 20+ years before that point and that's just way too far in the future for me to feel comfortable predicting anything. But so long as we are just concerned with HAL here, my guess is that most future retirements from HAL will happen when the ships are between 20 and 25 years old. That places us in an eight to thirteen year time frame for STATENDAM's retirement and an eleven to sixteen year time frame for VEENDAM's retirement. In other words, they should be around for a good long time yet. Basically, they should be right in the middle of their HAL careers, and not even in the middle of their whole service lives yet.

 

Again, this is pretty long-term stuff so this is just pure speculation. I'm going under the assumption that market conditions, ship design, etc. will follow the same trajectory that they're on right now. Something big could happen tomorrow and change everything, but all we can do is extrapolate and look at past experience.

[Krazy Kruizers]

Good question.

You can always do furniture, curtains, bedding over quickly, but once the ships start having major engine problems - that is another story. Major overhaul of engines take longer than a dry dock. The navy pulls ships out for at least 6 months when it is time to do a major overhaul.

We'll be cruising on some of the S class ships in the coming year so we'll get a chance to see how these ships are doing.

[wcolucci]

I've only sailed Massdam & Zaandam, (S CLASS??), and I really liked their "feel". From what I have gleaned so far about our upcoming cruise on the Westerdam, I anticipate a little bit of a let down from the smaller, more intimate nature of the other two, (hopefully I'll be pleasantly suprised).

 

Let's hope they are out there for yrs to come

[sail7seas]

Thanks for your great answers, especially Host Doug.

 

Makes me feel good to hope we can (hopefully) look forward to many more wonderful cruises on those fabulous ships.

 

:) Long may they safely sail!!!!

[jhannah]

Long may they safely sail, indeed! Virtually every mechanical device will last beyond what we expect as long as proper maintenance is performed. As long as the asthetics are also taken care of (paint, carpet, drapes, furniture, etc.) then there's no reason to expect less than 25+ years of service.

 

There's just something about the smaller ships. We enjoyed the Zuiderdam, and are looking forward to trying the Oosterdam and new Noordam. But the more intimate feel of an S or R class ship -- and certainly the Prinsendam -- is just very special.

[noblepa]

A lot depends on the world economy and the changing cruise industry.

 

As others have mentioned, the ships can physically be kept afloat and operational for 30 years or more. Whether they can make money at that age is another matter.

 

The old Rotterdam is still afloat and, by all reports, in pretty good shape. She was built in 1959 and was in service at least until 2000, under the Premier Cruise line banner. However, it has become prohibitively expensive to operate steam powered cruise ships, so it looks like she's going to become a floating hotel and/or school in the port of Rotterdam.

 

NCL operated the SS Norway, formerly the SS France, until 2003, when a boiler explosion killed a couple of crew members. The ship is in excellent shape overall, but NCL has decided that replacing a boiler is too expensive, so her fate is uncertain.

 

Profit margins in the cruise industry are pretty thin these days. That's one of the reasons that the lines pull out all the stops to make sure that every ship sails with a full complement of passengers.

 

The trend, as has been bemoaned on this board many times, is toward larger and larger ships. This is partly because they can offer more shipboard activities, such as rock-climbing on RCCL, but also because I suspect that the per-passenger operating cost is lower.

 

If the general world economy suffers a serious recession, or another 9/11 type event causes potential cruisers to stay away, the smaller ships will be laid up first.

 

I have often wondered how long the ship-building boom can continue. Almost every cruise line, except HAL, has at least a couple of ships under construction and they're getting enormous and enormously expensive. Half a billion dollars is now the norm for these leviathans. What's going to happen if the economy slows?

 

When 200,000 ton ships become available, will the smaller ships be able to compete in the mass market? I don't think that day is very far off.

 

What might happen in the next five years is that Carnival, in their quest for ever larger ships, will start phasing out their "smaller" ships, such as the 70,000 ton Fantasy class ships and hand them down to other lines within the Carnival family, such as HAL or Costa.

 

The bottom line is, its all about the bottom line. When the sad day comes that the S and R class ships begin to disappear from the HAL fleet, we will all be pointing out that the ships are still in perfectly seaworthy condition. Their physical life will be far longer than their economic life. They can be kept in service as long (within reason) as they remain profitable.

[Druke I]

Retention may also be affected by SOLAS (Safety of Life at Sea treaties).

 

Standards are changed periodically, and compliance can be quite expensive.

 

US Coast Guard regulations are also very high - which is why some ships no longer come to the US.

 

ADA (American Disabilities Act) laws also impact ships - United States ADA regulations are much more stringent than other countries'. When ADA came into play, Princess had to stop advertising Royal Princess as 100% accessible - she did not meet ADA standards!

[2rg]

The capital investment for these ships was probably recovered with-in 3 years depending on which BEAN COUNTER criteria they are using. They should have each grossed at least $230,000,000 in passage fares during their first 3 years, (not counting the other incomes). Normally it is expected to get at least 10 problem free years out of a capital investment. The ships have met their main investment criteria. Therefore it's anyones guess what the future holds for them. I for one would not want to see them replaced by the mega-liners. The vistas are already too big.

[mariner]

These are all very good answers, but they miss the most important thing: the real world.

 

The ships can clearly sail 30 plus years with the proper maintenance.

 

However, the S-dam ships cannot sail from Fort Lauderdale at a low per berth rate. They are too small unless they are on 14-plus days.

 

So unless HAL stretches them, they can't be economical. That's a sad thing. But true.

 

My bet says Oceana will buy some of them.

[Himself]

I do know that the Rotterdam 5 went on line in 1959 and went off line after the 1997 Alaska Season. The NOORDAM came on line in 1984 and went off line earlier this year. Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, your guess is as good as mine!

[dougnewmanatsea]

So unless HAL stretches them, they can't be economical. That's a sad thing. But true.

Let me ask you, what evidence have you seen that these ships cannot make money?

 

I do not have access to numbers but I am sure they are quite profitable. Certainly, ships can be and are profitable at this size, even at per diems lower than the ones HAL get for them. Some of the lowest per diems in the cruise industry are on ships roughly this size, e.g. the Carnival HOLIDAY-class ships, some of the older and smaller Costa and MSC ships, etc. And the HAL ships certainly get higher per diems than these.

 

At any rate, if the market continues growing, HAL will continue growing, and as the new (larger) ships continue to take over the shorter, less expensive cruises, the S-class ships will continue to operate on longer and/or higher-yield itineraries... Which makes yours a moot point as they will not be on those cheap itineraries from FLL you mention.

 

My bet says Oceana will buy some of them.

I don't really see that happening, if HAL cannot use them any more then Carnival will want these for some other brand.

 

There is only one ship in the HAL fleet that I could see going to Oceania and that is PRINSENDAM. Elsewhere in the Carnival empire, PACIFIC and TAHITIAN PRINCESSes (which are identical to the Oceania ships) and MINERVA II (not identical, but very close) would be good candidates. (That said MINERVA II is not going anywhere and if Princess do not want PACIFIC and TAHITIAN any more - I have heard rumors that they don't, but have no idea if they're true - I could see them going to Cunard or Swan Hellenic or some other Carnival brand, though I know Oceania would like to have one or even both.) The S-class ships might work for Oceania, but they might be too big... And also by the time Carnival are done with them, they will probably be antiques!

[Himself]

If they were going to be getting rid of the "S" class ships, why did HAL spend so much money on upgrading them with the SOS? It doesn't make sense. I have traveled the S class ships and I like them. I also like the R class ships.

[Bodger]

i drive a 1993 lexus and it is showroom new and was built with an engine to last several hundreds of miles.

 

Gee Shaver I hope you do better than that! :D I bet you meant several hundred thousands of miles and I would concur.

 

I used to flip my cars every four years, kept my '93 GS300 for almost 9 years before giving in to the temptations of an LS400. Almost 200,000 kilometers and the only non maintenance item was a power antenna. Can't beat it for value in my book. The biggest, most expensive, mistake I made was letting Mrs. Bodger drive my LS. :eek: She decided she wanted to be in the Lexus family too.

 

Bodger

[RevNeal]

However, the S-dam ships cannot sail from Fort Lauderdale at a low per berth rate. They are too small unless they are on 14-plus days.

 

1. The S-class ships are very profitable for the Line, both on the 7-day itineraries AND (even more so) on the longer-range and more exotic runs. The break-even point for the S-class is somewhat less than half the average per-diem (and the bean-counters will not say how MUCH less than half that point is ... that would appear to be something of an industry secret).

 

2. There is no indication that HAL is having any trouble selling berths on these ships at a profitable rate, even for the 7-day runs. In Alaska they command a higher per-diem and do not appear to be having any trouble filling berths. The same is true for the Canada and New England runs. And, as for the longer-itineraries -- like the Asian theater and the "Down Under" routes -- many of those cruises have either been sold out MONTHS in advance, or they are so close to selling out that it's no question that they will LONG before sail-date.

 

3. HAL cruises to more areas than just the Caribbean. While the S-class ships are still profitable there, it may be true that the Vistas are better suited for cruising in the Caribbean ... and for more reasons than just the profit margin. The day may come when the S-class ships will be found all over the world, with HAL offering regular or seasonal itineraries in truly exotic markets like India, South Africa, and the South Pacific. Indeed, we're already seeing the beginning of that with the Statendam being deployed to Australia and Asia.

 

In short, the S-class ships are profitable, versatile, and promise to provide HAL and it's passengers with many years of cruising enjoyment. I will be very surprised if any of these vessels leave the fleet before their 20th or, perhaps, even their 25th birthdays ... which means that we could well be seeing S-class ships in the HAL fleet as late as 2020 ... and maybe (hopefully) even later.

 

Here's an interesting question: How much larger will the HAL fleet get? With the addition of the Vista-class Noordam in 2006 there will be 13 ships in the fleet. Given the demand in the market I just cannot see HAL reducing their fleet size any, but I COULD see them looking to expand by a few more ships. Might they expand to 15 ships? Might there be 3 new ships added, and the Prinsendam sold off? Might the line grow even larger? Before one laughs, consider the history of HAL expansion.

 

On January 1, 1993 -- several days before the current Statendam joined the fleet -- there were just four ships under the HAL banner. My parents loved and had cruised on all of them, many times. In 1993, had anyone suggested to my mother that, by 2006, HAL would have expanded to a total of 13 ships and that all of the then-extant 4 vessels would would have left the line, she would not have believed it. Indeed, when the S-class project was originally announced my parents were skeptical about HAL's ability to support such a major expansion of the fleet in so few years. Their questions have been echoed again and again, with each additional new-build's launch, and yet HAL has managed to expand their staffing operations to accommodate these newer, larger vessels. Yes, there have been growing pains as staff has been, at times, thin and/or under trained ... but, by and large, the expansion has been highly successful.

 

What kinds of changes will we see over the next 13 years? For HAL to retire the S-class ships they will have to execute at least 4 new-builds to replace them. No such new-builds are on the radar, yet ... and, even if they were, it would be a stretch to assume that they will be replacing the S-class vessels ... not any more than it would have been to assume that the Vistas were intended to replace the S-class.

[Atomica]

I was on the Veendam just last week, and I was struck with how amazingly well kept it was. Just as clean as the newer Oosterdam, if not more so. I really enjoyed the S and Vista classes, and would happily sail either, but I think they each have their own distinctive 'feel'. I'd say that with all the upgrades HAL has been putting into the S-class lately, they won't be leaving the fleet anytime soon - the care they still put into those ships really shows, and I think they're some of the nicest on the ocean.

[sail7seas]

Wonderful conversation. I learned a lot. Thank you.

 

I am certainly among those who hope these beautiful "S" class ship long sail with HAL. We would be VERY sorry to see them leave the fleet.

 

Several Captains, at Mariners Parties, have clearly said the smaller ships cannot compete against the mega-condos sailing the Caribbean.

 

They have said that was a major reason for the creation of Vista Class.

 

The Captains have also spoken of a new series of three ships which are 'under design.' They have said they probably would be about Vista Class size.

 

I certainly have no independent knowledge but only know what I have heard Captains say.....and we know they would not have made such statements if not approved by the 'powers' that be.

[RevNeal]

Everything I said above was based, at least in-part, on what I and my parents have heard Captains, Engineers, Hotel Managers, and other ship's officers say over the last few years.

 

Several Captains, at Mariners Parties, have clearly said the smaller ships cannot compete against the mega-condos sailing the Caribbean.

 

Agreed, and I've heard the same thing too ... except that it was less of an immediate dollar competition and more of a "features" and "passenger expectation" competition. As of right now the S-class ships are competing well, even in the caribbean, in terms of selling all berths and making money. But look at which ships HAL is offering, in 2006, their regular east/west 7-day service -- the "bread and butter" runs for the "new passenger crowd." They're mostly covered by the Vista-class ships, with only the Veendam providing 7-day service out of Tampa. For the most part, the S and R class ships are providing longer-run cruises ... 10 - 14-days ... to the Southern Caribbean and/or the Canal. This makes sense, and coordinates well with what we know of the reason for the development of the Vista class, as well as their outfitting (i.e., no onboard laundry).

 

The Captains have also spoken of a new series of three ships which are 'under design.' They have said they probably would be about Vista Class size.

 

Right ... that's precisely what I've heard; HAL is projecting 3 future ships about the size of the Vistas, which would bring the fleet to 15 (or 16, if HAL keeps the Prinsendam). These ships don't sound like they would replace the S-class ... not at all. Rather, they sound like they will compliment the Vistas in the mass-market (i.e. "popular") regions. The 4 Vistas and their 3 future cousins would be best suited to offer 7-day cruises in the Caribbean/MexicanRiviera/Alaskan markets and 10-day cruises in the Mediterranean (that's what the Noordam is doing in 2006), while the S and R-class ships would provide 10-14 day cruise service in the Caribbean/MexicanRiviera regions, maintain the lions share of the Alaskan market (during season), provide service to Hawaii, South America, Northern Europe, the Asian-Oceanian-Australian market, and (fingers crossed) the South Pacific. Add enough ships and offer seasonal service in South Africa and India, as well. With 15 or 16 ships HAL could, conceivably, claim to offer regular and/or seasonal service touching on all continents. :) And, given the nature of the beast, the S-class vessels will be critical for offering service in these less-developed regions (fewer passengers, easier to sell).

[Nancyquilts]

I hope HAL keeps the Prinsendam - we've been on it under three different cruise lines, and there must be a place for a smaller ship of only 700 or so passengers. Nancy

[sail7seas]

I hope HAL keeps the Prinsendam - we've been on it under three different cruise lines, and there must be a place for a smaller ship of only 700 or so passengers. Nancy

 

Please remind me.........

 

Prinsendam started as Royal Viking and now is HAL........which cruise line was in the middle?

[Grumpy1]

Please remind me.........

 

Prinsendam started as Royal Viking and now is HAL........which cruise line was in the middle?

After leaving the Royal Viking fleet, Prinsendam sailed as the Seabourn Sun.