A New Ship on the Drawing Board?

[e2011]

To all you long time Disney Cruise fans, what do you think the possibility of Disney adding another ship or two to the fleet by 2020? There were rumors back in 2013 that they were thinking about two ships in the 90,000 ton range. With the prices Disney gets for a cruise and the popularity of the line would it make sense to move a couple ships to Asia exclusively like many of the other lines are doing? This would potentially open the door to two new ships for the Caribbean. What do you folks think?

[moki'smommy]

There is no question that there was an option for 2 more ships at the time the Dream and Fantasy were contracted for. When that option expires, I have no idea. My guess--whether to build or not will depend on the filling of the existing ships at top prices (not needing to discount) as well as the exchange rate between the Euro and USD.

[Loonbeam]

With Shanghai overbudget and overdue, plus the potential cash flow issues at ESPN, plus the investment in the parks, I don't see it anytime soon (see post I made ages ago about ESPNs issues and how they could affect DCL).

 

DCL is in a tough spot. The easiest way to increase margins in cruising and reduce risk is run a large fleet, but the only way to get there is invest billions in that fleet with minimal short term return unless you self-finance and I don't see them committing the cash.

[e2011]

With Shanghai overbudget and overdue, plus the potential cash flow issues at ESPN, plus the investment in the parks, I don't see it anytime soon (see post I made ages ago about ESPNs issues and how they could affect DCL).

 

DCL is in a tough spot. The easiest way to increase margins in cruising and reduce risk is run a large fleet, but the only way to get there is invest billions in that fleet with minimal short term return unless you self-finance and I don't see them committing the cash.

 

Maybe they should sell off ESPN. The network is losing millions of subscribers.

[ArthurUSCG]

While all the business units fall under the Disney umbrella, they all act separate and usually to maximize their own profit.

 

I could see DCL adding 2 more ships that are larger then Dream/Fantasy. But adding that much cabin space would be hard to fill.

 

I could also see DCL adding 2 ships that are smaller and mostly concierge for to be able to go to the more unique ports. Given the increase in prices, DCL might be looking to compete more to Princess and the other upper level lines.

[Loonbeam]

No one would buy it because of that reason except at fire sale pricing.

 

Maybe they should sell off ESPN. The network is losing millions of subscribers.

[Loonbeam]

DCL would need financing from the Disney master arm, they don't have enough cash on hand and wouldn't want to assume that much debt. And Disney has upped the inflow it expects from some subsidiaries to counter others, DCL has been slipping under the radar for a while but not now. While DCL does well, its NOT as profitable as it could be, which is why you are seeing the addition of more for-fee options, reports of some staffing cutbacks etc.

 

And if oil rebounds, that limited profit will be even harder to maintain and debt service would kill it.

 

While all the business units fall under the Disney umbrella, they all act separate and usually to maximize their own profit.

 

I could see DCL adding 2 more ships that are larger then Dream/Fantasy. But adding that much cabin space would be hard to fill.

 

I could also see DCL adding 2 ships that are smaller and mostly concierge for to be able to go to the more unique ports. Given the increase in prices, DCL might be looking to compete more to Princess and the other upper level lines.

[philpcruiser]

While all the business units fall under the Disney umbrella, they all act separate and usually to maximize their own profit.

 

I could see DCL adding 2 more ships that are larger then Dream/Fantasy. But adding that much cabin space would be hard to fill.

 

I could also see DCL adding 2 ships that are smaller and mostly concierge for to be able to go to the more unique ports. Given the increase in prices, DCL might be looking to compete more to Princess and the other upper level lines.

 

I'd vote for some smaller (personalized) size ships and more unique ports too. We love the Disney experience (concierge, service, their way of treating guests), but a change is needed. How many times can you go to Nassau or Grand Cayman?

[moki'smommy]

We were told at one of the Castaway receptions that DCL does huge fuel contracts when oil gets to a price that they are satisfied with and in that way protects themselves from fuel price increases as far out as suppliers are willing to go.

 

Of course, those agreements do not allow them to take advantage of price drops.

[ArthurUSCG]

If Crystal Cruises falls thru, part of me would rather see DCL rehab the SS United States then add 2 more cruise ships. She could do very unique cruises that start and end at different US ports and visit only US ports.

 

How about land and sea tours from NYC to Port Canaveral? Or California to Hawai? or Seattle to Alaska?

 

If you look at the SS United States it is clear where the overall look of the the current DCL ships came from.

http://www.ssusc.org/

 

Having her come back would be like dad coming back home from the war. Especially since Walt sailed on her.

[philpcruiser]

Or more NYC to New England and Canada ports? Or just up and down the East coast. How small of a ship would you need to sail the Great lakes???

[Loonbeam]

If they do build ships, small ships are less likely. The economies of scale are not there at any price point Disney could reasonably charge. If that's the route they want to go, you will see partnerships like for the River Cruises in germany, etc.

[e2011]

We were told at one of the Castaway receptions that DCL does huge fuel contracts when oil gets to a price that they are satisfied with and in that way protects themselves from fuel price increases as far out as suppliers are willing to go.

 

Of course' date=' those agreements do not allow them to take advantage of price drops.[/quote']

 

This is correct and unfortunately everyone who does fuel contracts including airlines, cruise ships, etc. is really lamenting them now. No one a year ago could have predicted oil falling below $30 a barrel. Hopefully they loaded up on new contracts in the last month.

[e2011]

If they do build ships, small ships are less likely. The economies of scale are not there at any price point Disney could reasonably charge. If that's the route they want to go, you will see partnerships like for the River Cruises in germany, etc.

 

Very true. Small ships have to charge more per cabin. Example, Seabourn. However maybe Disney could capture some of that high end market. Just as they did with the Grand Floridian.

[ArthurUSCG]

Or the new Polynesian bungalows.

 

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[Ex techie]

Very true. Small ships have to charge more per cabin. Example, Seabourn. However maybe Disney could capture some of that high end market. Just as they did with the Grand Floridian.

 

I'd politely counter that DCL are already charging higher than industry prices per Stateroom in peak season, and maybe slightly higher off season, so for verandah Staterooms they are already comparatively priced with high end resorts.

I'd say $9.8k for a midships Stateroom for 4 on the Fantasy in July, or a 1 BR suite with verandah At $23.5k, or Royal suite 12502 selling at $28.6k Aug 27th is beyond high end market.

 

ex techie

[e2011]

Or the new Polynesian bungalows.

 

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I read they were just north of $2,000 per night. WOW! When I go to Vegas I get a 1,200 sf Penthouse suite overlooking the strip and fountains for $550 a night.

 

I took a DVC tour of one of the over water bungalows and they are beautiful but not worth even $1,000 a night to me. What people don't understand about the Disney "Bora Bora" type bungalow is you can actually swim in the clear ocean water around your bungalow in Bora Bora. And its full of beautiful tropical fish. The lake water under the Disney bungalows is muddy with almost zero visibility. And you would not want to swim in it. Naegleria fowleri is present in the water also know as Brain Eating Amoeba. Every natural lake and pond in Florida may have it.

Edited February 18, 2016 by e2011

[Ex techie]

At over $4k a night, what additional services could they possibly add to any ship to justify that kind of price vs. a land vacation or private yacht charter taking you to the same ports. The shows and Characters sure aren't worth the price difference!

 

ex techie

[Ex techie]

The lake water under the Disney bungalows is muddy with almost zero visibility. And you would not want to swim in it. Naegleria fowleri is present in the water also know as Brain Eating Amoeba. Every natural lake and pond in Florida may have it.

 

Thats the alleged same reason they closed Discovery Island.

 

ex techie

Edited February 18, 2016 by Ex techie

[e2011]

I'd politely counter that DCL are already charging higher than industry prices per Stateroom in peak season, and maybe slightly higher off season, so for verandah Staterooms they are already comparatively priced with high end resorts.

I'd say $9.8k for a midships Stateroom for 4 on the Fantasy in July, or a 1 BR suite with verandah At $23.5k, or Royal suite 12502 selling at $28.6k Aug 27th is beyond high end market.

 

ex techie

 

Out of my price range for sure. When we were on the Fantasy the concierge told us that Beyonce and Jay Z had rented both Disney suites and cabin 12000 which is the 1 BR in between the two suites. I would like to know what that cost! Probably $80k or more? But of course they probably make $80k a day.

[Ex techie]

But of course they probably make $80k a day.

 

And some change!

 

ex techie

[moki'smommy]

It depends on the sailing date, but August 2016 the royal suite is listed as 23K for 2 people and over 30K for 5 people. The one bedroom suite starts at $12K for 2.

[e2011]

Thats the alleged same reason they closed Discovery Island.

 

ex techie

 

I have a bit of inside information on that subject as my aunt worked for Disney at the time. They actually closed Discovery Island because they opened Animal Kingdom. All the animals were relocated to Animal Kingdom and although there were several ideas of what to do with the island the slump in the economy prevented anything from going forward.

 

As far as River Country, to old water park at Fort Wilderness,they closed it because a new Florida law required all water parks to use chlorinated water for sanitary reasons and there was no feasible way to do that since the attraction was designed to use the lake water. Also they had just opened Typhoon Lagoon and Blizzard Beach. And it is true an 11 year old boy died of Naegleria fowleri that he did contract from the lake water at the River Country attraction.

[Loonbeam]

Now granted a smaller ship might not have the same suite level, imagine the premium charged for lets say a 900 pax ship where they don't have the onboard sales for those 2000 extra people to offset.

 

I'd politely counter that DCL are already charging higher than industry prices per Stateroom in peak season, and maybe slightly higher off season, so for verandah Staterooms they are already comparatively priced with high end resorts.

I'd say $9.8k for a midships Stateroom for 4 on the Fantasy in July, or a 1 BR suite with verandah At $23.5k, or Royal suite 12502 selling at $28.6k Aug 27th is beyond high end market.

 

ex techie

[Club Disney Chandler]

I think they need to start playing catch up with RCCL, NCL and CCL. The ships those companies are coming out with are amazing. We're heading out on the new CCL Vista in 2016 and 2017. 2016 we're in 2 insides but 2017 we were able to score one of the Havana Cabana suites for an 8 night Southern Caribbean for around 6k for the 4 of us

It also includes exclusive use of the Havana lounge and pool area for Havana people only during the day

For the amount of money people pay for concierge on the Fantasy for a week just imagine how much DCL could fetch for this?

 

RCCL is adding a new "panoramic" class of staterooms to their Freedom class ships. We are booked in this for October

It's about 450 square feet, sleeps 6 and has 1 and 1/2 bathrooms and we paid $3200 for a 7 night western Caribbean out of Galveston. That was paying for 5 of us even though there is only 4 going. We had to book 5 to book that cabin.

 

Then there's the Haven on NCL, from what I've read it's pretty amazing. I'm not ready to commit to NCL because of what I keep reading about the smoking situation on their ships. No offense to smokers as I'm a former but it would ruin things for DD.

 

I love DCL but if the newer ships from other lines continue to outpace them it could be a really bad thing.

 

I also think DCL needs to up their game on daytime casual dining, needs to be more than buffet and MDR for lunch options. I think they hit a home run with dinner rotational dining but daytime could be much improved.

 

I do hope DCL gets a couple more ships and has one year round on the west coast.

 

Just my $.02