Hurricane Irma Watch

[cruzer_3]

Apparently on the 09/03 Allure of the Seas sailing, the Labadee port of call is being cancelled , as per James Van Fleet on Twitter

[Cruisegirl6]

FlSteve11- Hang in there, don't put anything up just yet, hate for you to do all that work with your painful foot and not need to put them up.....there is a chance it skim south Florida but head northward, and you won't be on the worse side of the storm that would stay in the Atlantic.

 

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/local/hurricane-preparedness/irma-now-a-major-hurricane-strengthens-to-category-3/469600131

 

Tomorrow evening we have a better idea to the path and Wednesday morning also, you have plenty of time to get your shutters up if you need to, but lets hope, nobody will have to.

[CruisinCons]

If you don't already follow James on Twitter and you have a cruise coming up next week now is the time to do so. LOL I'm scheduled for Oasis this Saturday 9/10, and am flying down to MCO 9/9. James tweeted today that a formal announcement will be made Wednesday for the weekend sailings.

[Coopdog08]

If you don't already follow James on Twitter and you have a cruise coming up next week now is the time to do so. LOL I'm scheduled for Oasis this Saturday 9/10, and am flying down to MCO 9/9. James tweeted today that a formal announcement will be made Wednesday for the weekend sailings.

James still has a job with RC after his window of opportunity with Harvey?

[Tony20]

Right now every single part of Florida is potentially at risk of a hurricane over the weekend. The models all seem to agree that at some point it turns more or less north.

 

How far west it tracks before it does depends on how the low that's currently over the eastern US interacts with the high that's over the Atlantic, so there's still some decent uncertainty over when it makes the turn.

 

I assume that's why a lot of forecasters are saying to wait for Wednesday, when it will be near Hispaniola and the weather that will steer it will be more certain, to make decisions.

 

Personally, if I had "cancel for any reason" cruise insurance and was coming in from out of state, I'd probably bail out now. There's going to be a hurricane of great strength most likely close to or over FL this weekend. It's pretty foolish to travel TO a hurricane.

 

For those of us who are locals, it's an own-judgement thing about when and how far (if at all) we run.

 

We leave on Saturday. Average five day NHC forecast error is 225 miles. A lot of changes to come. Maybe.

[Misplaced Texan]

We leave on Saturday. Average five day NHC forecast error is 225 miles. A lot of changes to come. Maybe.

 

Agree, a lot of changes to come. I haven't seen any meteorologists who think they'll have a solid forecast until Wednesday and there will be uncertainty even then.

 

But just like we're preparing to have to evacuate at least off of our barrier island, folks who are planning to head this way on the weekend ought to be preparing for what happens if they can't/shouldn't.

 

I'll say it again: unless you're sure the storm isn't going where you're going, it's foolish to go TO a hurricane.

[put me on a ship]

I'll have to look at that as well. The only really big windows we have are the 2 sliding glass doors. But still it's a lot of windows. We're relatively new to the house, so haven't put them on this one yet. That's why I figured to start early as well, giving the foot a break. Gout is awful, seems like it's no big deal but it can hurt! (Probably a carry-over from 2 weeks in Alaska in July).

 

We fortunately did not flood much during the last big storm, though there were a few puddles in the road that took a day or so to go away. I know Davie & SW Ranches had a lot more flooding. I'm in the Ridges, so in the southern portion down near Griffin Rd, so saw the flooding there.

 

Hopefully with the storm still almost a week away, it will change before it gets here.

 

We had to put our shutters up last year for Matthew. First time we did in this house, we've only been here 3 years (our old house didn't have them). It took us 2 days, with help. Hopefully, if we have to this time, it will go a bit faster. And then, on Saturday, we went on a cruise! We were SO ready!

[put me on a ship]

Agree, a lot of changes to come. I haven't seen any meteorologists who think they'll have a solid forecast until Wednesday and there will be uncertainty even then.

 

But just like we're preparing to have to evacuate at least off of our barrier island, folks who are planning to head this way on the weekend ought to be preparing for what happens if they can't/shouldn't.

 

I'll say it again: unless you're sure the storm isn't going where you're going, it's foolish to go TO a hurricane.

 

We're just across the river from you...Eau Gallie area. My parents used to live in Indian Harbour Beach, can't tell you how many times they had to evacuate, and the storms ended up turning away from us. Of course, we've also been through several storms now.

 

And I agree, don't come to FL if it looks like a storm is coming. A lot of people will be under mandatory evacuations, and hotels become hard to get.

[Cruiseathoning]

This is a bizarre storm track, because it essentially would preclude Allure from going to either Florida port. One because Hurricane Irma is shown as precisely hitting both ports, two the timing is such it would have to beat the storm to Port Canaveral, and then you risk an Anthem redux as it would be on the east side of the storm. Since it switched to Cozumel anyway, is Galveston capable of handling an Oasis class ship?

 

My question is what do they do if Liberty and Allure, and Oasis have to dock and two of the three main ports are unusable?

[Clarea]

... My question is what do they do if Liberty and Allure, and Oasis have to dock and two of the three main ports are unusable?

There are many ports that can handle Oasis class ships. Those ports may not be the most efficient for handling 6000 passengers, but in an emergency they have options. For example, in Barcelona they use two adjacent terminals for one Oasis ship.

[Misplaced Texan]

We're just across the river from you...Eau Gallie area. My parents used to live in Indian Harbour Beach, can't tell you how many times they had to evacuate, and the storms ended up turning away from us. Of course, we've also been through several storms now.

 

And I agree, don't come to FL if it looks like a storm is coming. A lot of people will be under mandatory evacuations, and hotels become hard to get.

 

Howdy Neighbor. :)

 

We have two options right now: 1) My in-laws are in Palm Bay on the other side of 95, which is our usual plan for small storms where they make us go inland but nothing significant is likely to happen. 2) I grabbed a cancellable hotel in Orlando for Sat-Wed just in case things look bad by the end of the week.

 

Now it's wait and see time. And prepare to curse myself for renovating the master bathroom this year rather than getting impact windows when I spend all day Friday fighting to get the shutters up.

[Cruiseathoning]

If people that dock in FL have to be taken to Barcelona I am headed for the mountains.

[Clarea]

If people that dock in FL have to be taken to Barcelona I am headed for the mountains.

Not suggesting they would go to Barcelona, just illustrating that there ways they can make things work in a pinch.

[Cruisegirl6]

From what I can tell from the current model, the ships can beat the path of this hurricane, beating it to its home port so everybody can disembark safely on Saturday, the problem I see are the ships that come back Sunday, my guess they will either run ahead of this hurricane and disembark a day earlier (Saturday) or stay at sea for another day and come back on Monday....but it would be safer to bring the ship back Saturday as Sunday thru Monday the winds are going to be very bad in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.

[Cruiseathoning]

Ok where? They could not take Liberty to NOLA. I think at a certain point you are talking tendering with luggage because otherwise, if FL is unavailable, your best option is debark in Galveston-but then there is a storm that is brewing there too. So it is theoretically possible storms might hit all three viable ports on the same day.

 

All of this is more a way of saying the wave of the ship future I feel is high end and smaller, not larger. I think as awesome as these ships appear to be, the risks involved with having so few port options might deter companies from building ever larger ships.

 

A lot of this will depend on how Virgin is received, but I think they concern NCL more, as the demographics more closely align. Some of the best times I ever had were on a <100,000 ton ship.

[Mrs.McCord]

Sept 16th Conquest birthday cruise here. 5th cruise for me, 1st for husband. He's extremely apprehensive. Prayin all is well for all.

We're on the Grandeur 9/16, hoping for the best. Last year we rode the tail of a TS to Bermuda and missed Matthew coming back. The cruisers that got on after us weren't so lucky.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[franl24fan]

Way back in 2004 three major hurricanes came across Florida within 3 weeks. Cruise ships moved up and down the coast, as the track kept changing, even doubling back on tracks. That was definitely worst case scenarios.

[perditax]

Way back in 2004 three major hurricanes came across Florida within 3 weeks. Cruise ships moved up and down the coast, as the track kept changing, even doubling back on tracks. That was definitely worst case scenarios.

 

 

Interesting, thanks. (I lived in Orlando that summer and remember it very well, but cruising is a very new hobby to me.)

[Coopdog08]

From what I can tell from the current model, the ships can beat the path of this hurricane, beating it to its home port so everybody can disembark safely on Saturday, the problem I see are the ships that come back Sunday, my guess they will either run ahead of this hurricane and disembark a day earlier (Saturday) or stay at sea for another day and come back on Monday....but it would be safer to bring the ship back Saturday as Sunday thru Monday the winds are going to be very bad in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.

Were are you seeing the window for Sat? I think Friday is the cut off day to make back to port. Last gfs model run showed tropical storm winds off the coast at hr 120 which would be Saturday. Not to mention nobody is getting on/off ships with a cat 3-5 Irma off the coast as there won't be anyone there to execute as they will hopefully be up state or out of state. Pretty confident the upcoming cruises will be cancelled unless there is a significant change in current models. By significant I mean the eye of the hurricane staying 300-400 miles away from the coast.

[SherriZ366]

The way things are looking you may have more issues with boarding OA than you will departing MJ.

Friends on OA are on a back to back. If Port C is closed, it won't affect them but it will affect lots of others. Another poster on CC -- Internet Wiz -- was on Liberty and they went to Miami on Tuesday then back to Galveston on Friday and they could stay until Sunday when the roads were much better.

[Cruisegirl6]

Franl24fan- I remember that but I thought it was four of them...maybe I am wrong lost count of them that year, had to live with my hurricane shutters on for three weeks as no need taking them down to put them right up for the next one and the next one lol.....needless to say, my house was only 9 years old then, the next year April 2005 I sold my house and moved up to northern Florida it was the best decision I made because in 2005 Hurricane Wilma took off the roof to my house and all neighborhood houses there. :eek:

 

I am not worried cruising when a hurricane is out there, happened to me many times, but the trick is to get onto the ship if we have to spend an extra day or so hey great....lol

[Coopdog08]

Way back in 2004 three major hurricanes came across Florida within 3 weeks. Cruise ships moved up and down the coast, as the track kept changing, even doubling back on tracks. That was definitely worst case scenarios.

Unfortunately I don't think that will be option this time. Those storms went east to west or vice versa were Irma is south to north. In addition that was 13 years ago, lots have changed in Fla since then. I saw a stat today that Miami Dade county is 7th biggest in US with 2.7 million people. When Andrew hit in 92 I believe the pop was only 800k. Another crazy stat, the total for those four storms was like 60 billion. Harvey will be like 175 they say. If this storm hits as anticipated it may hit 300 as there is enormous real estate in Fla.

[put me on a ship]

Howdy Neighbor. :)

 

We have two options right now: 1) My in-laws are in Palm Bay on the other side of 95, which is our usual plan for small storms where they make us go inland but nothing significant is likely to happen. 2) I grabbed a cancellable hotel in Orlando for Sat-Wed just in case things look bad by the end of the week.

 

Now it's wait and see time. And prepare to curse myself for renovating the master bathroom this year rather than getting impact windows when I spend all day Friday fighting to get the shutters up.

 

We stayed put for Matthew. We are in "wait and see" mode for this one. And I'm prepared to curse my husband when after Matthew I wanted to put in the permanent shutters. He said we hardly ever need them, so why bother?

[CruisinCons]

There are many ports that can handle Oasis class ships. Those ports may not be the most efficient for handling 6000 passengers, but in an emergency they have options. For example, in Barcelona they use two adjacent terminals for one Oasis ship.

 

Good to know that is an option; I know Tampa has a bridge that Oasis can't go under; is there similar obstacles in the other gulf ports?

[cruisinfanatic]

From what I can tell from the current model, the ships can beat the path of this hurricane, beating it to its home port so everybody can disembark safely on Saturday, the problem I see are the ships that come back Sunday, my guess they will either run ahead of this hurricane and disembark a day earlier (Saturday) or stay at sea for another day and come back on Monday....but it would be safer to bring the ship back Saturday as Sunday thru Monday the winds are going to be very bad in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.

Friday would be the last day in port. No way Sat