Breakaway 9/10 NY to Bermuda

[mlaro]

What is everyone thinking on this? Is Jose going to be good to us.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[JLCMOM]

Fingers crossed for you, I am watching very closely as we are sailing on her on 8/17.

[Whiterose79]

What is everyone thinking on this? Is Jose going to be good to us.

 

I'm on the same sailing. Jose's current predicted track definitely gives me stress, but we shall see! I'm going to pack a couple of things for cooler weather just in case we're diverted to Canada.

[rrshinn]

We're heading to NY on Saturday and watching the weather closely. Jose's turn to the North concerns me. The NHC website shows it to the SW of Bermuda Tuesday AM which may cause a change in itinerary. Packing some extra clothes in case we divert North. Small problem compared to what Texas and the SE are going through.

[celie1110]

I'm on that cruise and not worried at all I will pack a jacket and a couple of pairs of long pants. Give me a few Miami Vice's and I won't care where I go! ;p

[Enavigo]

I'm on the same sailing. Jose's current predicted track definitely gives me stress, but we shall see! I'm going to pack a couple of things for cooler weather just in case we're diverted to Canada.

 

 

 

I think packing for that contingency is the only thing you can do. I would not expect to hear anything from NCL until boarding or maybe even later! I just ran all the various models and looked at all the ensemble tracks and Jose looks to be on a very weird track. They are going want to wait until the last minute to see what is actually going to happen.

 

None of the models actually have it hitting Bermuda and only one of the 50 ensemble tracks brings it close. The projections have it continuing N-NW (toward Bermuda) for the next few days, but in the Sun-Mom timeframe it is expected to stall out and either be pushed dead east or even retrograde! Also, it is expected to weaken in this same timeframe and wind shear is expected to increase.

 

It's pretty clear what is driving these models, there is a forecasted high pressure system dropping down from the north right over Bermuda next week. The strength of the that high and its location will be what steers Jose. Sad part is it looks like no one will know that until Sun-Mon timeframe.

 

Even if it does curve out over Bermuda, it will only be a cat 1 at most (and several models have it only as a TS). So maybe it will go to Bermuda or possibly delay arrival a 1/2 day or day?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[janetz]

I'm on that cruise and not worried at all I will pack a jacket and a couple of pairs of long pants. Give me a few Miami Vice's and I won't care where I go! ;p

 

Now that is a great attitude!! :D

[PelicanBill]

So, not wishing to be a wet blanket but your situation is almost identical to ours last October. If Jose stays on forecast it will be pointed right at Bermuda 3 days out when you depart. They cannot go to Bermuda under those conditions. Luckily Irma is not forecast to interfere with NYC ships at this time so you can get out and maybe run South. Maybe. You really need a major change in Jose's path.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[Enavigo]

So, not wishing to be a wet blanket but your situation is almost identical to ours last October. If Jose stays on forecast it will be pointed right at Bermuda 3 days out when you depart. They cannot go to Bermuda under those conditions. Luckily Irma is not forecast to interfere with NYC ships at this time so you can get out and maybe run South. Maybe. You really need a major change in Jose's path.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

 

 

A major change is actually predicted and the cone is just starting reflect that. If you look at the 5 major models, after that north turn they all either move dead east or begin to move south-southeast. In short, that north movement we see now is as close to Bermuda as Jose is predicted to get. In part as a result of a growing high pressure system from the north that is expected to settle right over Bermuda this weekend.

 

Taking it further, if you look at all of the 50 ensemble models not a single one has it hitting Bermuda, the closest run puts Jose 75nm to the south-southeast of Bermuda. And even that is the day before the ship arrives.

 

Also, Jose is expected to weaken significantly beginning on Sunday. Both from the drier air, being a much smaller storm than Irma and the increase in wind shear. All models say it will be at most a cat 1 and two models have it ceasing all forward motion and dissolving to a tropical depression.

 

Were I still on this sailing I would not give up hope! Everything that the NHC has put out on this storm (so far) is consistent with both the American and European models (which are in near perfect agreement). Can things change? Of course, but I would not panic yet.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[mlaro]

Enavigo still looking [emoji4]?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[PelicanBill]

Sorry to disagree, but Jose is now a Cat 4 storm aimed straight at Bermuda within 2 days of Breakaway's scheduled arrival.

 

Last year it was just a tropical storm and it was the same distance away. That distance is too close to maintain a safety margin.

 

I predict it will be like last year. Last minute call on day of departure.

The good news is I can see possibility of sailing south IF Jose makes its turn. If it does not, the ship has to turn around and head back.

[oneplustwins]

I predict it will be like last year. Last minute call on day of departure.

Where did you end up sailing to?

[Enavigo]

I just posted this in another thread as well. Here are the 11 am models for Jose. So far he has done everything as expected. He was predicted to get to cat 4 today, but he is much smaller than Irma and is headed into drier air and a significant increase in wind shear is expected. He will be a cat 1 or 2 by Monday am when all forward motion is expected to cease. He will lose his steering current almost entirely. At that point, some models have him headed dead east as a pressure ridge moves in from the west and others have him moving south-southeast.

 

There is still not a single model that brings him anywhere near Bermuda. In fact not even a single ensemble run (of over 50 permutations) has him hitting Bermuda.

 

I do agree that things can change and I also agree this will be a last minute decision by NCL, but I am encouraged by the NHC's statement that the unusual model agreement leads them to believe the models are accurate (they reference that almost complete agreement of the European and American models--which is very rare). In fact, each updated path we receive has further confirmed that.

 

So, in short, I do not think this is decided yet and I would not give up hope. They may even monitor the Anthem which has announced that it WILL head to Bermuda on Sat.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[PelicanBill]

Folks last October they announced we were going to Bermuda on Breakaway until after we boarded. Forecast is hurricane strength through wednesday. If there is a chance of TS wind they won't go there. NCL was severely criticized last year for sailing too close to a storm. Their safety margins have expanded as a result. They will sail, but there will be a change if the forecast holds through Tuesday. Be ready for that.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[Enavigo]

Folks last October they announced we were going to Bermuda on Breakaway until after we boarded. Forecast is hurricane strength through wednesday. If there is a chance of TS wind they won't go there. NCL was severely criticized last year for sailing too close to a storm. Their safety margins have expanded as a result. They will sail, but there will be a change if the forecast holds through Tuesday. Be ready for that.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

 

 

I am not disagreeing with you at all w/r/t your overall analysis. All I am objecting to is your use of "if the forecast holds." My point is, if the forecasts holds it will be nowhere near Bermuda! You seem to be trying to convince people that the forecast says something it does not and never has. That's all I'm trying to say.

 

Last fall that event had multiple model diversions, with several possible tracks close/over Bermuda. That is simply not the case here. Now could the models change? Of course, but my point is "if the forecast holds" starting mon/tues it will begin to head dead east or south-southeast.

 

All that said, being prepared for a change is always the best course of action.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[mlaro]

[emoji41]

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[mking8288]

BWS - check again tomorrow & early on Sunday morning ... worst case, add a fleece jacket/vest & fall jacket, in case BA Captain has to make a last minute change & chart a new course.

http://www.weather.bm/marineforecast.asp

 

New England/Canada ports might be packed full (foilage cruises) with no extra berth for mega-ships ... tendering would be a nightmare with 4,500 souls onboard.

 

Seas will likely to be choppy, but 12' waves is light & easy for *.Away class ships ... except for those AFT & FWD on the higher decks, where you will feel some horizontal & vertical motion, as ship sail closer to Dockyard.

Edited September 8, 2017 by mking8288

[Enavigo]

5pm update is out with the revised cone track. It continues to follow the long-range models and now shows the anticipated stall with eastern progression. Also now expected to weaken to cat 1 by tues evening.

 

Again, all could change but I would take this as positive news as, again, the major models all continue to agree that the northern progression is likely to stop as Jose slows and gets caught up in trough.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[bluesea777]

I like this one better ...

 

http://www.weather.bm/maps/bwsWTNT22.jpg?201799126

 

Go to http://www.weather.bm and hit the Tropicals link on the left hand side, and then click on the Maps Only link of the storm/hurricane of your choice.

[Enavigo]

I like this one better ...

 

 

 

http://www.weather.bm/maps/bwsWTNT22.jpg?201799126

 

 

 

Go to http://www.weather.bm and hit the Tropicals link on the left hand side, and then click on the Maps Only link of the storm/hurricane of your choice.

 

 

 

Oh, I like this map even better [emoji3]

 

And, if memory serves, you reside in Bermuda, correct? Such a beautiful island and my favorite place on the planet. Just a beautiful, picturesque island with such warm and amazing people.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[bluesea777]

Oh, I like this map even better [emoji3]

 

And, if memory serves, you reside in Bermuda, correct? Such a beautiful island and my favorite place on the planet. Just a beautiful, picturesque island with such warm and amazing people.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

Yes, we reside here in Bermuda - it's been 37 years. We went through several direct hits and dozens of brush-bys, so we are practically in the hurricane alley. The direct hits have not been fun at all - each lasted between 18 to 22 hours, from the first high winds until the final calm and it was too dangerous for anyone to venture outside the whole time. Several times we have had the eye directly over us and it was eerily calm for a few mins before winds picked up again - in completely different direction.

 

Last major hurricane was last year October - Nicole was a Cat. 4 but reduced to 3 just before it went over us. Its eye lasted ONE and A HALF HOURS!! We even had some streams of sunlight during the period. So very eerie. Fortunately the damage was nowhere as bad as some of the previous ones and we were back to normal day - work - 12 hours later on the following morning. Also the airport reopened the next day. We were shocked but very glad. We were indoors for about 15 hours.

 

An excerpt of an email I sent:

 

 

Hurricane Nicole was a surprise for us in Bermuda – although shewas Category 3 when she hit Bermuda, she caused MUCH LESS damage/destructionthan expected! Thank God for this. Her eye went completely over us for aboutan hour and a half everything was so calm. Fortunately her 2ndpart was much shorter and weaker and things were pretty much over by 4:30 pm Thurs13th Oct, 3½ hours after the eye has passed. The first part lastedabout 10 hours (tropical and hurricane force winds) before the eye arrived.

 

Minimal damage – mostly vegetation, and only 11 electrical polesfell. 77% power outage (27,000) but 1/3 of that was restored by midnight,another 1/3 by 10am Friday (that’s us – we were off for 24 hours), and theremaining over the next 2 days with the last 100 by Monday night. Bermuda is soresilient as always.

 

 

Nicole visited on the Thursday and everything was back to normal– back to work – on the Friday! NCL Dawn returned to Bermuda for her weeklyvisit on Sunday – just 3 days after Nicole’s visit!

 

We lost ¾ of the avocados. Sigh ….

2 years ago Fay (Cat 1) and Gonzalo (Cat 3) caused much much moredamage, so we were so happy that Nicole was nowhere as bad.

 

 

We have 2 big and tall avocado trees in our yard ... they bear fruit only every 2 or 3 or 4 years and guess what? We have never had the chance to enjoy them - whenever they bore fruit (1,000 or so) a hurricane (or 2) came and dropped them well before their maturity.

 

 

This year both trees are fruitless ....

[Enavigo]

Hurricanes are far more rare here in Boston, but as I child I do remember one coming through that knocked out power in my town

For a week.

 

I wish you all the best and hope the forecast for Jose holds. There has been enough devastation from hurricanes this past month alone.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[PelicanBill]

I think the outlook for Bermuda improved a little. The forecast path flattened eastward with the models. I still think we need to see it do that to have a safety margin for ships to visit, as it will still be a hurricane, and creating rough seas and dangerous surf along the beaches.

[bluesea777]

Let's hope that JOSE DOES NOT MAKE A NICOLE !!

 

October 2016 Nicole's path:

 

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/major-hurricane-nicole-atlantic-bermuda