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[ORV]

15 hours ago, azdrydock said:

20 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Number of ships doesn't tell the full story...money does.

 

According to reports the two new Regent Seven Seas ships may have cost upwards of 500  million each.

 

The very big NCL ships like the Encore cost in the neighborhood of $1 billion each.  NCL has built 7 of them since 2010 and has 6 "Project Leonardo", which are just slightly smaller than the mega ships, on order for delivery from 2022 through 2027 at  a reported cost of $850 million each

 

Viking Ocean ships reportedly have cost about $400 million each...less than half the cost of NCL's ships and 20% less than the RSS new builds.

 

Although I can't find cost estimates for Viking's river cruise ships, given their small size common sense suggest the cost to build one is a small fraction of the cost to build an oceangoing cruise ship.

 

Then you have to consider the cost to finance the construction of these ships. I can't provide a number, but given the vast wealth of Viking's founder and principal owner, their cost to borrow may be cheaper too.

surprisingly the Viking payment schedule didnt affect bookings but according to Viking rep it stopped a lot of the fake booking shenanigans.  There were always around it  for frequent cruisers or smart TA's

Windstar is owned by Anshutz Corp, a large hospitality group 

Paul Gauguin is now part of Ponant

 

IMO both are high risk.

 

HAL is part of Carnival, If they require health certificates for the over 70''s, they are history😉

 

My guess would be some restructuring   and consolidation, some super deals to rebuild the base and a lot of complaining on CC boards.

Do either of you have any actual experiencing working in the cruise industry or are you just interested cruisers? Thanks for the actual numbers, I like that much better than someone just TOTA. 

 

As mentioned earlier anyone can have an opinion about what is going to happen. If a person actually has bonafides in the industry that would make their opinion have a little more weight. But that's just my point of view. 

 

Since I'm not in charge I'll wait and see what happens. I expect to go on the cruises I have booked in Sept of this year and March of next. 

[njhorseman]

2 hours ago, ORV said:

Do either of you have any actual experiencing working in the cruise industry or are you just interested cruisers? Thanks for the actual numbers, I like that much better than someone just TOTA. 

 

As mentioned earlier anyone can have an opinion about what is going to happen. If a person actually has bonafides in the industry that would make their opinion have a little more weight. But that's just my point of view. 

 

Since I'm not in charge I'll wait and see what happens. I expect to go on the cruises I have booked in Sept of this year and March of next. 

I owned  a travel agency for a number of years so I believe I do have an understanding of how the cruise business works.

 

But that aside I'm a mathematician and my "real" job was as an actuary for both life and property/casualty insurance companies. At the time I took early retirement I was my company's head of strategic planning.  That meant   among other things I was responsible for analysis of the performance of our competitors versus ours as well as understanding the business world in general, and making recommendations to our senior officers and board of directors on where the company should be heading given the environment in which we were doing business. 

 

BTW, my comments on the cruise lines' new ship orders omitted the fact that Oceania has two new "Allura" class ships on order, which Oceania said would cost about $658  million each...a very high price ticket for a ship about the same size as Marina or Oceania. We can safely say that NCLH has been spending significant amount of money on new builds for all three of its brands.

Edited March 17, 2020 by njhorseman