SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[highplanesdrifters]

On 12/16/2022 at 6:13 AM, RetiredandTravel said:

it is Christmas, never underestimate the power of Christmas 🤩

 

C'mon Santa. Don't get stuck in the chimney.   Rough couple of days for the market.

 

Ever notice how hawkish Powel gets when the market rallies? If the S&P drops another few hundred will the Dove come back out?

 

A side note on the economy. We are in Chicago for the Holidays. We have been out every night for the last week with friends and family, which will continue through next week. It's killing me, I'm too old for this😃. Restaurants are jammed. Dinner reservations are hard to come by at many restaurants in spite of 30-40% higher prices.  Sticker shock is an understatement.  These expensive bars and restaurants are full of 20-30 somethings. No wonder they can't afford houses. It's a mortgage payment just to go out for one night!

 

Where is all this money coming from? Has the stimmie run out? Has their Stimmie savings run out? Are they putting it on credit cards? Some data says yes.  Going to be in interesting first quarter. 

[TLCOhio]

6 hours ago, highplanesdrifters said:

Ever notice how hawkish Powel gets when the market rallies? If the S&P drops another few hundred will the Dove come back out?  A side note on the economy. We are in Chicago for the Holidays. We have been out every night for the last week with friends and family, which will continue through next week. It's killing me, I'm too old for this😃. Restaurants are jammed. Dinner reservations are hard to come by at many restaurants in spite of 30-40% higher prices.  Sticker shock is an understatement.  Where is all this money coming from? Has the stimmie run out? Has their Stimmie savings run out? Are they putting it on credit cards? Some data says yes.  Going to be in interesting first quarter. 

 

Many, many great, important questions and follow-up points from highplanesdrifters. It will be an interesting first quarter when the bills come due from the holiday period.  

 

From MSN News and super experienced former USA Today travel expert Gene Sloan, there was this headline: “Royal Caribbean cruise boss: High debt won’t keep us from ordering new ships” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean Group president and CEO Jason Liberty suggested the company wouldn’t dial back on orders for new cruise vessels in the coming years, despite record levels of debt on its balance sheet.  While Royal Caribbean Group has paused new ship orders since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020, it still plans to roll out new vessels for all its brands at a steady clip over the coming decade, Liberty suggested during the interview.”

 

Here is more background from Sloan's reporting: "Royal Caribbean Group’s long-term debt during the pandemic soared to around $19 billion — more than three times the 2017 level. Some cruise fans worried that the days of a never-ending stream of exciting new ship debuts might be coming to an end.  But Liberty suggested to TPG that the debt paydowns wouldn’t be so extreme as to leave the company without new ships in the pipeline for the coming years. Some of the profit stream will continue to be allocated to new ships, too.  Making things easier to do both things, according to Liberty: The company has 'a bit of a buffer' when it comes to new ships that already are on on the way — ships that were ordered and financed before the pandemic.  Silversea has two ships already on the way for 2023 and 2024.  The new-ship pipeline at Royal Caribbean Group, barring new orders, doesn’t really start running low until 2026. That means there’s been no immediate rush to order new vessels."

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/royal-caribbean-cruise-boss-to-tpg-high-debt-won-t-keep-us-from-ordering-new-ships/ar-AA15bZI2

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 255,611 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal, below is the chart from Royal Caribbean yesterday.  Down in a major way, much more than the overall market.  Both Carnival and Norwegian were down yesterday even more, around 4.4%.  What is happening and why?  The early am opening for RCL's stock was a little of a bounce-back.  

 

From the Miami Herald and MSN News last week, they had this headline: “Miami-based Norwegian Cruise Line lays off 9% of its shoreside workforce” with these highlights: "Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings let go of 9% of its shoreside workforce on Wednesday, according to the company’s SEC filings.  The company declined to comment on which departments were affected and in which locations, but said that the 'majority' of layoffs were in Miami.  'In reviewing our business needs, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has taken several prudent actions across our business to align with our strategic priorities,' the company said in a statement.  The SEC filing said that 'cost minimization initiatives' in order to achieve 'sustained, profitable growth,' were what caused the layoffs. Shipboard employees appear to have been spared.”

 

When I read the words "cost minimization initiatives", it causes a pause and question for me as to how these cuts impact the quality of the cruise experience.  Clearly, there are major pressure to cut costs and pay back the billions of dollars in debt rolled up, especially as interest rates spike up, UP.  Right or wrong?

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/miami-based-norwegian-cruise-line-lays-off-9-25-of-its-shoreside-workforce/ar-AA15nhtt

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 245,617 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

[Desperate to Sail]

Until it can't, debt and interest must be repaid. All the cruise lines have been doing is refinancing maturing debt with new longer-dated debt but at higher interest rates. The US Fed is doing them no favors at the moment. At some point, they have to start actually paying off the debt. 

 

So either they raise cash by issuing new equity, which dilutes the current shareholders' value, or they cut expenses. Muckerman isn't taking a pay cut. The crew isn't even paid peanuts to begin with. So who do you really think is going to pay the bar bill?

 

The cruise lines will continue to raise prices and cut services until the teeter totter tips and people decide cruising isn't worth it. We're personally getting very close to that point. When that happens, and the cruise lines can no longer finesse the debt, they go belly up and the debt holders take the loss.

 

It's a grim forecast but I don't see any other viable outcome. Have a great day.   

 

[saminina]

3 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 Clearly, there are major pressure to cut costs and pay back the billions of dollars in debt rolled up, especially as interest rates spike up, UP.  Right or wrong?

 

 

Right.   Was this a trick question?

 

[TLCOhio]

On 12/20/2022 at 1:46 PM, saminina said:

Right.   Was this a trick question?

 

Was it a "trick question"?  Or, was I just posing a smart inquiry . . . or only a dumb question?  It all depends as to who is asking the question and who has to do the answering.  Excellent follow-up as all of us are searching and wondering what happens next.  Or, not?

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their stock charts for the past week.  Plus, more!  Why?  From this below-connected web financial site, they had this headline: “Why Carnival and Other Cruise Stocks Sank on Thursday” with these highlights: “Carnival announced a beat on earnings yesterday, but still lost a lot of money.  Debt levels are rising as free cash flow remains negative, and the company might need to raise more cash soon.  Worries over the financial health of one cruise company are dragging down all cruise stocks.  Investors just woke up to the fact that Carnival's fourth-quarter earnings report actually wasn't that great.  Worse, Carnival's U-turn appears to have caught its rival cruise stocks in its wake.  Carnival lost $1.27 per share for the quarter and $5.16 per share for the year, and predicted that it will keep losing money in the fiscal first quarter of 2023.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/22/why-carnival-stock-and-other-cruise-stocks-sank-on/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 240,060 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below are the five-day charts for the three major cruise lines during this past rocky and uncertain week.  Big Wednesday jump UP and then a negative slide Thursday, etc.  Also shown below is the chart for Disney, part a cruise company, but also a major mass-market "entertainment" leader.  Finally, below is the overall S&P 500 trends during this past week.  Overall, it was not a steady, stable week as we approached the end-of-year holidays.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From former USA Today travel expert Gene Sloan yesterday, his news website had this headline: “Parent company of Carnival, Princess, Holland America is dialing back new cruise ship orders” with these highlights: “The days of go-go growth at cruise giant Carnival Corporation are over — at least for a few years.  The debt-laden parent company of Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America and six other major cruise brands won't be ordering many new ships for delivery over the rest of the decade, CEO Josh Weinstein suggested on Wednesday during a conference call with Wall Street analysts.  In fact, the company soon could go an entire year without unveiling a single new vessel across any of its brands — something that has never happened in its recent history.  The shift away from new-ship growth comes as Carnival Corporation works toward paying down the massive debt it took on to survive the last three years.”

 

Here was another key point from this report/analysis: "On Wednesday, the company reported that its total debt stood at $34.55 billion, up from less than $12 billion at the start of 2020."

 

This thread is now over 90.000 views.  Appreciate those who have dropped by, posted a questions, shared an insight or comment, etc.  Keep it coming!!  These "things" are far from over and settled.  

 

Full story at:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/carnival-corporation-cruise-ship-orders-on-hold/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 98,332 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

Edited December 23, 2022 by TLCOhio

[highplanesdrifters]

Thank YOU Terry for keeping this thread going. I'm always learning something. 

 

Happy Holidays, Merry CHRISTMAS and most certainly wishing you a Happy New Year....which involves some wonderful traveling.

 

Be safe, be warm. A little chuckle for you.

 

[TLCOhio]

On 12/24/2022 at 11:17 AM, highplanesdrifters said:

Thank YOU Terry for keeping this thread going. I'm always learning something. Happy Holidays, Merry CHRISTMAS and most certainly wishing you a Happy New Year....which involves some wonderful traveling.   Be safe, be warm. A little chuckle for you.

 

Appreciate this great follow-up from highplanesdrifters and the kind wishes for the holiday season.  Yes, I enjoyed your "chuckle"  Excellent, funny posting.    

 

From a financial news/analysis website this morning, they had this headline: “Stock Market Sell-Off: Is Carnival a Buy?” with these highlights: “Carnival is still trying to overcome deep problems in the cruise industry caused by the pandemic.  Yet, revenue per passenger is ahead of 2019 levels, and there's plenty of liquidity available.”

 

While this is about Carnival, there are some good and bad news aspects that apply to all of the cruise lines.  Here is more from their posting: "Cruise ship operator Carnival keeps sailing from one storm into another. While most people want to put the pandemic behind them, the cruise line must still contend with the uneven reopening of the travel industry around the world and the ongoing war in Ukraine.  While Carnival took on a lot of debt to survive the industry shut down, the cruise operator does have a lot of cash on hand as a result, and revenue per passenger cruise day (RPCD) is now above 2019 levels."

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/28/stock-market-sell-off-is-carnival-a-buy/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 70,710 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

[TLCOhio]

Happy New Year!!  Appreciate the many comments, follow-ups, etc.  As mentioned previously, I do not own any cruise stocks and after the past twelve months, that is a statement of pride and relief!!!  Will they come back?  Maybe!!  Probably!!  But, when??  And, how??

 

From the Wall Street Journal below are the charts for three cruise ship stocks as they closed out 2022.  Not exactly an "UP" or positive year for most stocks, especially in certain of the tech areas, etc.  Not yet a rebounding year for RCL and the cruise lines.  

 

What will happen for 2023?  Any predictions and insights?  Reasons why and how?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 53,460 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

From the Wall Street Journal during the past week, below are the movements with the three major cruise ship lines.  Surprise?  All three did not exactly move in matching patterns!!:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

Looking at all of 2022, below is the chart for Royal Caribbean during the past twelve month.  Plus, for comparison, also below is the S&P 500 chart for entirety of 2022.:

 

[TLCOhio]

How is 2023 going so far?  Better?  Still uncertain? From the Wall Street Journal, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines. 

 

Starting on Wednesday, things started to move up, UP, UP!!  Good news?  Part of it was a more optimistic view for the overall direction  of the stock market and economy.  How long will it last for the cruise stocks?  Are things finally over the "hump"?  Or, is a recession getting closer to impact the economy? 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Various visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 49,775 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

From the Wall Street Journal during the first week of 2023, below are the movements with the three major cruise ship lines.  Upswing?  At the bottom, fourth, is the chart for the S&P 500 during this five trading day period, reflecting the overall market direction.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

[RetiredandTravel]

I found this WSJ article interesting

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-rates-tech-selloff-fuel-options-boom-11673214152?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

 

MS upgrades RCL downgrades NCLH

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-oak-street-health-frontline-boeing-and-more.html

 

 

[TLCOhio]

On 1/10/2023 at 9:16 AM, RetiredandTravel said:

I found this WSJ article interesting

https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-rates-tech-selloff-fuel-options-boom-11673214152?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

MS upgrades RCL downgrades NCLH

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-oak-street-health-frontline-boeing-and-more.html

 

Appreciate this helpful follow-up and these links from R&T.  On the WSJ story about stock options, not sure for me that I am ready to play the Las Vegas-style high-risk "plays" with such stock options.  Cheaper to get in those "games", but the risks (and potential losses) are much, much higher.  Some (including certain hedge funds) roll the dice in these ways, but somebody will be left "holding the bag" in the future.  Way above my pay grade and risk tolerance.  Right or wrong?   

 

From the Wall Street Journal below are the charts for the three major cruise lines.  It reminds me of the famed song, "Up, Up and Away", by the popular group, the Fifth Dimension, in the late 1960's.  Remember that tune and these singing stars??  

 

What a week for these cruise stocks?  Cannot remember such a totally consistent upward trend.  And for Royal Caribbean, their movement for 2023 has been straight UP!!   Is this a trend that will continue?

 

On Jan. 3, RCL started out at $48.71.  Now they are at $63.48.  That is a jump of $14.77 per share.  That's an amazing 30.3% increase!!  Excellent movement in just two weeks.  On one financial TV show yesterday, they noted that how a stock starts the year is often indicative for what happens during the rest of year.  Other predictions and speculation?  Ready to place your "bet" by buying cruise ship stocks now?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Visuals, details from two visits in a city and nearby with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 49,213 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

From the Wall Street Journal during this past week, below are the movements with the three major cruise ship lines.  Upward!!!  At the bottom, fourth, is the chart for Royal Caribbean since the first of this year.  Really positive?!!?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From this Internet financial website connected below, they had recent columns looking at the various factors to consider for buying cruise line stocks.  In this headline: “Like Carnival Cruise Stock? Buy This Bargain Travel Stock Instead” with these highlights: “Carnival stock has a few turnaround investors turning their heads lately. Now, a number of investors seem to see opportunity in the sell-off as Carnival has reported strong occupancy and booking trends, and the stock is down 82% since the start of 2020.   Despite that decline and the momentum in the business, Carnival stock isn't as cheap as it appears. If you're looking for a bargain stock in the travel sector, you're better off buying shares of Airbnb, the fast-growing, vacation rental leader.”

 

In another posting, they had this headline: “Better Cruise Stock Buy: Carnival or Royal Caribbean” with these highlights: “With a positive outlook for the cruise industry starting to offset negative sentiment, investors are wondering if it is time to initiate or add to existing positions in cruise line stocks.  Let's take a look at two major players in the cruise industry and determine which of these two iconic companies makes a better buy in today's market.  The case for Carnival: Down more than 83% from its pre-pandemic highs, and 88% below its all-time high, Carnival now trades in a price range first reached by the stock in the 1990s.  The case for Royal Caribbean: Similar to its rival Carnival, Royal Caribbean stock has fallen dramatically since the pandemic, now trading roughly 61% below its January 2020 highs. In an industry poised for recovery, is Royal Caribbean the better buy? The Miami-based cruise operator finally posted a net profitable third quarter, carrying in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $742.3 million.  Contending with the same industrywide headwinds as Carnival, Royal Caribbean continues to endure inflation and supply chain disruptions, mostly in the form of higher fuel and food costs.”

 

Here was their final bottom line: "With currents of optimism starting to wash ashore for the cruise industry, both of these beaten-down cruise stocks stand to see some recovery -- as long as the world stays on course toward 'normalcy.' "

 

Full stories at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/like-carnival-cruise-stock-buy-this-bargain-travel-stock-instead/ar-AA168uy6

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/06/better-cruise-stock-buy-carnival-or-royal-caribbea/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,955 views.  Many pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

[TLCOhio]

Cruises and money??  From the Washington Post this morning, they had this headline: “Love that cheap cruise price? Don’t forget the boatload of fees" with this sub-headline: "Taxes, port fees, tips, drinks and activities can quickly add up.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “Colleen McDaniel remembers being on her first cruise more than 20 years ago when someone offered her a drink of the day.
'I was like, great,' she remembered, and didn’t think about it when they asked for her room card. Only later did McDaniel, now editor in chief of Cruise Critic, realize that she had been charged for the drink.  Cruise executives love to tout the value of a cruise: Pay one price and your lodging, food, entertainment and visits to multiple ports are included. But there are a host of added fees — some optional and some mandatory — that can come as a big surprise to new cruise travelers.”

 

The good news with Silversea and certain higher-priced cruise lines is that there is less of these extra charges for drinks, etc.  But as all of the cruise lines are looking to pay back the billions and billions of dollars borrowed during the Coved shut-down, be on the look out for these somewhat, maybe, hidden extras.

 

This story notes: "Several cruise lines in recent months have announced they are increasing automatic gratuities, hiking prices for WiFi or charging more for room service delivery.  A cruise is not just about the ship, of course — but going out and about on port visits can cost extra."   

 

For excursions with Silversea, our past experience has been that many of the tours through them have not been marked up as much compared to what other lines such as Oceania does.  Any recent experiences as to how Silversea handles these tour fees?  It seems now that a group of "basic" excursions are included in the price, but added fees are charged for some of the "better" ones.  Right or wrong?  How is the pricing for the "Selected Shore Excursions"?

 

Full story at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2023/01/15/cruise-drink-package-port-fees/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 31,720 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

Edited January 16, 2023 by TLCOhio

[RetiredandTravel]

On 1/16/2023 at 10:51 AM, TLCOhio said:

 

 

For excursions with Silversea, our past experience has been that many of the tours through them have not been marked up as much compared to what other lines such as Oceania does.  Any recent experiences as to how Silversea handles these tour fees?  It seems now that a group of "basic" excursions are included in the price, but added fees are charged for some of the "better" ones.  Right or wrong?  How is the pricing for the "Selected Shore Excursions"?

 

 

 

Personally I think SS would have been better off not going "all inclusive"  and including the excursions in the price.  We aren't Caribbean cruisers but if I were a person that goes on SS Caribbean cruises every year I would view this as just a price increase.

 

I've found the SS included excursions to be a mixed bag , some ports are fine others very light.  Seems there is no rhyme or reason to it. They really need to up their game here to advertise "all inclusive".  The only thing I can think of is they are new to the approach and will improve over time

 

For example, below is a cruise that goes to Israel and Egypt.  The 10+ hour Jerusalem tour (with food) is included but in Egypt the 10 hour Pyramid excursion costs extra.  I understand its a different country and a long ride etc etc but if you say you are "all inclusive" seems to me that there should be a trip to the Pyramids included.

 

https://www.silversea.com/destinations/mediterranean-cruise/athens-piraeus-to-athens-piraeus-sl230509015.html

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by RetiredandTravel

[TLCOhio]

7 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Personally I think SS would have been better off not going "all inclusive"  and including the excursions in the price.  We aren't Caribbean cruisers but if I were a person that goes on SS Caribbean cruises every year I would view this as just a price increase.  I've found the SS included excursions to be a mixed bag , some ports are fine others very light.  Seems there is no rhyme or reason to it. They really need to up their game here to advertise "all inclusive". 

 

Agree above with R&T's great comments and follow-up regarding Silversea's "all-inclusive" offering/pricing.  As noted on these SS board for Lois' latest sailing, it really hit when she shared that she only went on one excursion during her entire cruise.  WOW!!  She did not get the best "value" offering from Silversea.  As the economy tightens, Silversea might need to re-evaluate as to if this higher excursions-including prices sell best.    

 

From the below-connected financial website, they had this headline: “Small Ships Are Making Big Waves: The Growing Demand for Luxury Cruises” with these highlights: “You won’t find waterparks or mega theatres on small cruise ships. Instead, small cruise ships like award-winning Silversea’s Silver Cloud can pull up next to a glacier in Alaska and pluck some ice for an authentic Alaskan cocktail hour. Luxury small ship cruising is surging in popularity, with the number of ships set to double by 2030.   Small ship cruise lines typically offer up to 50% more personal space per person compared to their mega-ship counterparts. Service levels are significantly higher with one-to-one service levels or nearly double the amount of crew per passenger. But perhaps the biggest draw for travelers considering a small ship cruise: adventure. Small ships can easily navigate remote harbors of coveted destinations that typical cruise ships can’t get anywhere near.”

 

As we who have done Silversea know, smaller ships have some advantages.  Sales are going well now and larger ships require big, BIG number to keep them filled up.  But, what happens, even to customers with more cash reserves, as the economy gets more challenged?

 

Full story at:

https://247wallst.com/investing/2023/01/10/small-ships-are-making-big-waves-the-growing-demand-for-luxury-cruises/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 21,541 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

[A Tucson Guy]

To kinda piggyback your comments, what is causing us angst is the over doubling of the cost of international Business Air with SS or if you book directly with the airlines. $7,000 for Bus Air add on to down under or the Orient from the USA starts to take some of the fun out of the trip. Sadly, when inflation slows down, we may never see the old lower prices for everything come back. What goes up may just stay up!! We just will not fly internationally in coach and I know a lot of people that feel the same way. We all have choices.

[TLCOhio]

54 minutes ago, A Tucson Guy said:

To kinda piggyback your comments, what is causing us angst is the over doubling of the cost of international Business Air with SS or if you book directly with the airlines. $7,000 for Bus Air add on to down under or the Orient from the USA starts to take some of the fun out of the trip. Sadly, when inflation slows down, we may never see the old lower prices for everything come back. What goes up may just stay up!! We just will not fly internationally in coach and I know a lot of people that feel the same way. We all have choices.

 

Great comment and follow-up about airline fares being up, UP and UP!!  Whether using points, cash and/or through Silversea, the costs have risen fast.  If you are paying super premium prices, that "lack of value" definitely does damper any hoped travel fun.    

 

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, they had two different headlines making these points: “Stocks Fall After Weak Economic Data Revive Recession Fears" with this sub-headline: "Retail-sales figures raise concerns about growth; Treasury yields slide.” Plus this other major WSJ headline: "U.S. Retail Sales Fell 1.1% in December" with this sub-headline: "Sales see biggest monthly decline of 2022 as consumers cut back at height of holiday season."

 

Among the reporting highlights/details were: “Stocks fell Wednesday after a fresh batch of economic data offered worrying signs of how the economy is weathering the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign. A Federal Reserve report Wednesday found economic activity was relatively flat at the start of the year and businesses are pessimistic about growth in the months ahead.”

 

Today, Royal Caribbean's stock was down 3.02% in just a one-day trading period.  Carnival was down 4.14%.  Overall today, the S&P 500 was down 1.56%.   Is this good or encouraging news after the cruise stocks and market had been positive since the first of January 2023?

 

Full stories at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-01-18-2023-11674043955?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Summer 2019 Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, they had their charts reflecting the stock market trends during this past week for the three major cruise companies.  

 

As happened with the overall market, things were down significantly on Wednesday and Thursday.  But today, Friday, surprise, things bounced back nicely.  Does this make or mean a longer-term trend?   Any good guesses for what happens next week?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Early 2020, many visuals and details from New Zealand/South Pacific in going from Auckland to French Polynesia.  This includes Bora Bora, Fiji, NZ experiences, etc:  Live/blog;

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2735732-live-terryohio-“new”-regatta-south-pacificnz-pix’s/

 

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From the Wall Street Journal late this afternoon, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines.  Unlike in most weeks, the patterns for these three companies did not all move in the same patterns during the past five trading days.  

 

Then, at the bottom, is the WSJ chart for this past week on the S&P 500 that represents the overall market movements.  Lots of variations!!??   These four charts were not all "zigging and zagging" to the same musical tunes and patterns.  Right?  Hard to figure out what this past week previews/predicts for the month of February and beyond?

 

Then, also, the Wall Street Journal today had this major headline: "Consumer Spending Fell 0.2% in December as Inflation Cooled" with this sub-head: "Underlying inflation slowed to its slowest pace since October 2021."  Here were some of their reporting analysis: "U.S. households turned cautious at the end of last year, cutting spending during the holiday shopping season and increasing savings, adding to signs of an economic slowdown.  The pullback in spending came as inflation cooled, giving consumers some relief from rapidly rising prices. Households cut spending on goods as prices fell for gasoline and other energy products, the department said. They increased spending on services, where prices climbed." 

 

Good news for future cruise line spending?  Maybe the coming recession will not be as deep and/or as bad as has been speculated and predicted?

 

Full story at: 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-personal-income-inflation-december-2022-11674779291?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 255,883 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

 

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by TLCOhio

[TLCOhio]

From this financial website last week, they had the headline: “Should You Buy the Dip on Royal Caribbean Stock?” with these highlights: “Like many beaten-down companies, Royal Caribbean has been off to a strong start in 2023, jumping almost 30% year to date.  That said, the company is still down about 22% over the last 12 months.  Should investors buy the dip or wait?  The cruise industry has been somewhat slow to recover. That might soon change in 2023.  According to Truist Securities analyst Patrick Scholes, the sector is set to finally bounce back to previous levels. His research suggests that industrywide sales will jump by an impressive 50% over 2019 (the period before the crisis).”

 

Sound encouraging?  Here is more from their analysis: "Royal Caribbean's booking data supports Scholes' conclusions. The company has seen an acceleration in demand for 2023 sailings, with booking volumes exceeding 2019 records.  Royal Caribbean needs a big recovery because its current performance leaves much to be desired. In the third quarter, operating income flipped from a loss of $1 billion to a gain of $298.4 million.  While the return to profitability is great news, it's still far below the $890.8 million generated in the corresponding period of 2019. Further, with $19.4 billion in long-term debt, the company will need all the cash it can get."

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/25/should-you-buy-the-dip-on-royal-caribbean-stock/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 245,896 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[TLCOhio]

As a mid-week update, something significant was happening yesterday with Royal Caribbean's stock.  Up, UP, big-time!!  See below the Wall Street Journal chart from late yesterday.  This was as the Dow Jones and S&P500 stocks were down.  The major "jump" for RCL Wednesday was much, much higher than what happened with the other two major cruise lines.  Why?  Sorry, cannot answer that puzzling question.    

 

From the Washington Post this morning, they had this headline: “Fed hikes rates by 0.25 percentage points, with inflation easing" with this sub-headline: "The central bank plans to slow the pace of its fight while keeping pressure on the economy — in an attempt to avert a bad recession.”

 

Here are a couple of their story highlights: “The Federal Reserve is not letting up on its inflation fight, hiking interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, while signaling that it will continue to increase borrowing costs even at the risk of lost jobs.  The central bank’s move was the eighth consecutive hike, but the smallest since last March, as Fed officials spent the past year scrambling to get control of inflation that soared to 40-year highs.  The bleak reality, though, is that finishing that job requires pain. The country has avoided a recession so far, but no one knows whether the job market or consumer spending — critical engines of the U.S. economy — could worsen.”

 

Is inflation really "easing" and the headline claimsand will the economy move into some type of recession?  Deep or shallow economic slow-down?   How do ALL of these economic news and questions affect the cruise industry?  Lots of interesting questions?

 

Full story at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/01/fed-rate-hike-inflation/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 241,427 views.

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/1896175-solstice-live-australianzhawaii-many-pix’s-jan-20-feb-3/

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by TLCOhio

[TLCOhio]

According to the Yahoo News report two days ago, on Feb. 7 (next Tuesday), Royal Caribbean will be releasing their quarterly financial details.  

 

They had this headline: “Royal Caribbean (RCL) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates” with these highlights: “The market expects Royal Caribbean (RCL) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2022. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.  The earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 7, 2023, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.”

 

Will be on the look-out for this financial update next week.  Maybe that explains this big RCL stock jump up, UP??

 

Full story at:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-rcl-expected-beat-150003989.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 100,554 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

[Randyk47]

Want to echo Lois and Terry’s comments about the cost of included tours potentially being removed and a corresponding price drop. We just got off the Dawn…..boarding as Lois was getting off….and only took one shore tour out of the dozens offered at the 12 stops of a 14-day cruise.  We actually were booked to take two but the sea conditions at our one tender stop were too dangerous for the mobility challenged husband of the couple we were cruising with so cancelled that tour.   Seems to me it would make sense to offer included tours as a separate package like the piece parts of a door-to-door booking where you can drop flights and limo transfers or go back to paying for only those you want.   

Edited February 2, 2023 by Randyk47