P&O cruise cancelled, double the price next year

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

Although cruisers in many cases do not bring that much income to the ports. Yes, I know many of us eat and drink ashore, but the majority seem to scurry back  to the ship, with the "I've paid for my meals, so I'm going to eat them" attitude.

In the current environment I think many countries,  like Portugal has done, will think the risk of  importing CV19 outweighs the financial benefit, and will ban cruise ship passengers for a while yet. 

I think the CEOs of all the cruise terminals will have a totally different view than your's wowzz.

[wowzz]

6 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I think the CEOs of all the cruise terminals will have a totally different view than your's wowzz.

I don't doubt it, but the Minister of Health in each country will have the final say.

[brian1]

5 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I think the CEOs of all the cruise terminals will have a totally different view than your's wowzz.

Correct,minimum £30,000 docking fee plus all the tour buses with thousands onboard and don't forget all those fridge magnets.

[wowzz]

2 minutes ago, brian1 said:

Correct,minimum £30,000 docking fee

Well, that will cover the cost of one person being hospitalised with CV19 as a result of the ship's visit!

[zap99]

3 hours ago, wowzz said:

Which suggests that when social distancing rules are not obeyed, cases increase. Makes it ever more difficult for cruise lines to restart operations, unless the number of pax on board are severely reduced in numbers.

The cruise companies could do the same as local councils to reduce numbers. Close all the toilets. Hang on though, how did that work our for them,?.🤔

[besberry]

20 hours ago, happy v said:

Can't you just phone P&O?

I could, but it wouldn't help as I booked through a TA and I'd lose the deposit

[sweep2907]

I am very hopeful cruises will begin again on their new date and this is why. Many talks with experts and government have told them that should epidemic be under control and keep reducing then by August, the UK government can start to give go ahead to resume at a certain date. The fact P&O have chosen a date of mid October allows plenty of time to plan. Like many have said the crew need training, the ships will need reconfiguring, items ordered etc etc. Should UK government give go ahead August to resume then cruise companies will be flat out preparing for sail dates. Mid October is pretty much start of their winter season and is a realistic time frame to prepare without being too rushed. 

 

I personally don't believe the two week isolation for returnees to UK will last beyond August. Not sure why it has been brought in so late anyway as talk about shutting stable door after horse bolted.

 

I will have sizeable punt if the R rate stays where it is and new cases continue to drop in UK then cruises will resume October. I do believe they'll have to reduce their capacity at least 40% to start with to enable safer distancing.  Also remember the UK could be advising one metre distancing by then which is a big difference.

 

Keep the faith! I fully intend to be sailing on TA end October.

[wowzz]

16 minutes ago, sweep2907 said:

. I do believe they'll have to reduce their capacity at least 40%

Working out how to do that should prove interesting! There will be a lot of disappointed people out there.

[No pager thank you]

5 minutes ago, sweep2907 said:

I will have sizeable punt if the R rate stays where it is and new cases continue to drop in UK then cruises will resume October. I do believe they'll have to reduce their capacity at least 40% to start with to enable safer distancing.  Also remember the UK could be advising one metre distancing by then which is a big difference.

Clearly, I hope that you are right when it comes to R and the dreadful last few months are replaced by a few brighter ones.  I really do hope that our Christmas Cruise might happen - still have hope.

 

However, what I think is genuinely unknown is what capacity level the P&O Cruises are currently booked to for 2020 sailings; and if any unwritten capacity constraints are built in to their modelling around how many cabins can currently be booked.  Estimates that I have read around the minimum passenger level to guarantee a commercial return vary between 30 and 75%+; I would imagine that P&O's pricing model will take it to the higher end of any range, whether or not this one is correct.

 

In any event, if passenger numbers have to reduce to enable safe cruising, then, assuming this to be viable commercially, there is a chance that some people with existing bookings may have them cancelled so as to comply with whatever constraint is set.  This will only be avoided if enough people cancel of their own accord (and transfer), but booked occupancy remains within whatever underpin level the company sees fit.

 

Woe betide if P&O end up booting off loyal passengers for anything other than transparent reasons.  They think refunds have been bad PR!   Tricky balance of course!

 

Fingers crossed that we may be on the road back to cruising again 🤞

[sweep2907]

27 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Working out how to do that should prove interesting! There will be a lot of disappointed people out there.

Running one of the Facebook groups for 2020 sailing, I've seen many people rebook for 2021 and cancel their cruise this year. I have a feeling that many cruises October to December 2020 are already well below capacity? Furthermore I don't think anyone is booking them right now so it may not prove to be that big an issue. We could very well be the guinea pigs late October.

[No pager thank you]

3 hours ago, sweep2907 said:

Running one of the Facebook groups for 2020 sailing, I've seen many people rebook for 2021 and cancel their cruise this year. I have a feeling that many cruises October to December 2020 are already well below capacity? Furthermore I don't think anyone is booking them right now so it may not prove to be that big an issue. We could very well be the guinea pigs late October.

What will hopefully prove your theory/hypothesis correct is if "Late Saver" deals emerge closer to the time.  If these deals are better than the price paid at brochure release then it would suggest under capacity, as P&O wouldn't overbook on poor prices.  Should know that by August time.

 

That may also convince the "savvy" to take a free transfer on their current booking and then rebook immediately at the cheaper price too, possibly upgrading at the same time. 

 

A case of wait and see I suppose.

[happy v]

6 hours ago, besberry said:

I could, but it wouldn't help as I booked through a TA and I'd lose the deposit

That seems silly to me I would phone P&O and ask them to take over the booking. After all you have offered the business to the TA it's not your fault they are incompetent.

[mercury7289]

1 hour ago, No pager thank you said:

What will hopefully prove your theory/hypothesis correct is if "Late Saver" deals emerge closer to the time.  If these deals are better than the price paid at brochure release then it would suggest under capacity, as P&O wouldn't overbook on poor prices.  Should know that by August time.

 

That may also convince the "savvy" to take a free transfer on their current booking and then rebook immediately at the cheaper price too, possibly upgrading at the same time. 

 

A case of wait and see I suppose.

The savvy have gone for a cash refund!

 

 

[No pager thank you]

13 minutes ago, mercury7289 said:

The savvy have gone for a cash refund!

 

 

Quite agree - I was meaning those with Cruises booked immediately after 15th October, who might see the chance of a bargain...💸... bargain only if you actually get to go on holiday of course 🚢

[barriead]

Must admit I was quite shocked to see p&o prices on next years cruises....£100-ish  a night always seemed acceptable to me for an early booking for a balcony cabin...but skipping through it looks like next years are quite a bit more, have not done a forensic check...only a quick look but the price per night looks to have increased imho.

 

However it may well be that prices get adjusted when things start to get a bit more settled and a vaccine becomes a real hope, I live in hope.☺️