Royal is sailing, why isn't NCL?

[njhorseman]

5 minutes ago, CruiseMH said:

 

TUI cruises in germany is operating with 1-3 ships since July 2020 already.They are sailing at 25 to 50% of capacity. And they are all-incl. ships and offer low fares. Why do you think they are doing it since 9 months and still did not stop operating? Why is MSC operating cruises since several months? Why is RCCL operating(even if only for specific passengers) ? You can be sure that they would not take the risk and do all the efforts if they would burn money. 😉

Their financial situation is not the best and no cruise line would make it even worse on purpose.

They might not make any profit. But they are reducing their losses. Thats why they are operating.

 

So, if these cruise lines can do it then NCL should be able to do it as well.

Every cruise line that is now operating and not having any problems like virus outbreaks has an incredible high chance to raise their market share in these markets. If people are happy and satisfied they will choose these cruise lines for their next cruises first ,cause they trust in them.

 

 

I'm sorry, but where did I say NCL couldn't or shouldn't sail at reduced capacity? All I was doing was explaining why you can't make a profit doing it.  Breaking even means no profit on even an EBITDA basis and still losing money on a GAAP basis. You are wrong that it is reducing their loses.

 

The value in resuming at limited capacity is psychological...convincing the public that it's safe to cruise, and operational by allowing you to adjust your protocols to make your operations safer and smoother as well as convincing government regulators that you can operate safely.

[CruiseMH]

1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

You are wrong that it is reducing their loses.

The value in resuming at limited capacity is psychological...convincing the public that it's safe to cruise, and operational by allowing you to adjust your protocols to make your operations safer and smoother as well as convincing government regulators that you can operate safely.

 

You really think that cruise lines just burn millions or even billions of Dollars/euros for a psychological effect?

What do you think a cruise line should tell their bank if they are asking ask for a deferral of credit and the the same time they burn millions of Euros/dollars for a psychological effect ?

The psychological effect is for use there and it is one of the arguments to operate cruises in these times. But the clear main factor is to improve the financial situation(in any form whatsoever)

 

I have to admit that MSC and TUI  do have the advantage that in Europe you have enough ports to make 7-day cruises with port stops in one single country. So they have to deal with only one government.They also have enough potential customers with only one nationality on board.(e.g. italian or german). this makes the organizational effort much easier to operate cruises in these times.

that might be one reason why they are operating and many other huge cruise lines don`t.

 

But especially cruise lines like NCL,RCCL,etc. where upcharge restaurants, almost all beverages, casinos and other upcharge attractions are a huge part of the income are for sure able to operate cruises with 50% of capacity at at least breakeven if not even a very small profit.

 

6 or 7 days starting from Nassau being 2 days at sea and two on one of their private islands and then a stop at some other carribbean port.with this they have very low fuel costs,(sailing at extreme low speed) almost no port fees and very much time to convince the passengers to spend extra money on board.(and most passengers will be so happy to cruise again that they will spend more then they would probably do on a regular cruise)

 

 

[knight2096]

Because the CEO is a pinhead.

[njhorseman]

21 minutes ago, CruiseMH said:

 

You really think that cruise lines just burn millions or even billions of Dollars/euros for a psychological effect?

What do you think a cruise line should tell their bank if they are asking ask for a deferral of credit and the the same time they burn millions of Euros/dollars for a psychological effect ?

The psychological effect is for use there and it is one of the arguments to operate cruises in these times. But the clear main factor is to improve the financial situation(in any form whatsoever)

 

I have to admit that MSC and TUI  do have the advantage that in Europe you have enough ports to make 7-day cruises with port stops in one single country. So they have to deal with only one government.They also have enough potential customers with only one nationality on board.(e.g. italian or german). this makes the organizational effort much easier to operate cruises in these times.

that might be one reason why they are operating and many other huge cruise lines don`t.

 

But especially cruise lines like NCL,RCCL,etc. where upcharge restaurants, almost all beverages, casinos and other upcharge attractions are a huge part of the income are for sure able to operate cruises with 50% of capacity at at least breakeven if not even a very small profit.

 

6 or 7 days starting from Nassau being 2 days at sea and two on one of their private islands and then a stop at some other carribbean port.with this they have very low fuel costs,(sailing at extreme low speed) almost no port fees and very much time to convince the passengers to spend extra money on board.(and most passengers will be so happy to cruise again that they will spend more then they would probably do on a regular cruise)

 

 

If they're breaking even or possibly making a small profit as you surmise, by running at reduced capacity then how are they burning "millions or even billions of Dollars/euros for a psychological effect " ? They're not  burning anything per your financial analysis....and even per mine because I did say the reduced capacity cruises can break even on an EBITDA basis.

 

You're contradicting yourself .

 

 I won't spend any more time discussing this .

 

Edited March 21, 2021 by njhorseman

[darwinsrule]

1 hour ago, knight2096 said:

Because the CEO is a pinhead.

 

Yes but he was a pinhead before COVID-19, and he will be a pinhead after COVID-19.  There is no vaccine that will solve his problems. 

[CruiseMH]

18 hours ago, njhorseman said:

If they're breaking even or possibly making a small profit as you surmise, by running at reduced capacity then how are they burning "millions or even billions of Dollars/euros for a psychological effect " ? They're not  burning anything per your financial analysis....and even per mine because I did say the reduced capacity cruises can break even on an EBITDA basis.

 

 

 

If you would read my posting carefully you would understand it.

 

I am convinced: They are operating because they are reducing the loss.

You are convinced: they are operating just for psychological effect and don`t reduce the loss.

 

But if your assumption is correct then they would simply burn money cause there is no evidence that  psychological effects have any influence on future earnings. No cruise line would take the risk.

 

And thats all i wrote. "burn money just for psychological effects"

 

But maybe you are right,it does not make much sense to speculate intensely about the reasons cause we don`t know them and will most likely newer get to know.

[AstoriaPreppy]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but it appears that Celebrity's Millennium sailings from St. Maarten will require bundled airfare. So the $1999 pp verandah cabin will only be available with flights.

That's another way to make some money on a smaller ship sailing (expected to sail around 40% capacity), compared to Adventure of the Seas, which is significantly larger.