PelicanBill Posted August 26, 2021 Author #51 Share Posted August 26, 2021 A lot of spread in the intensity model runs. Category 1 seems likely for a gulf coast landfall. Still early. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 26, 2021 Author #52 Share Posted August 26, 2021 As o f8am EDT, left to right 90%, 70%, 50%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 26, 2021 Author #53 Share Posted August 26, 2021 We have depression 9, and the chances on the others are 70% and 50% now (over 5 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 26, 2021 Author #54 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Forecast on TD 9. Winds up to 110mph before landfall - this is strong Cat 2 almost Cat 3. The entire Gulf coast and cities from Galveston to Tallahassee need to start preparations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismism Posted August 26, 2021 #55 Share Posted August 26, 2021 This is getting real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rkacruiser Posted August 26, 2021 #56 Share Posted August 26, 2021 4 hours ago, PelicanBill said: Forecast on TD 9. Winds up to 110mph before landfall - this is strong Cat 2 almost Cat 3. The entire Gulf coast and cities from Galveston to Tallahassee need to start preparations. The projected path looks good for bringing my area some much needed rain. But, the path up the Mississippi looks somewhat like what I remember when Ike paid us a visit in September several years ago. We don't want another Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 27, 2021 Author #57 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Two areas at 70% and Ike has been named. New thread for Ida. Ida does look a bit dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 27, 2021 Author #58 Share Posted August 27, 2021 One dropped down to 60%, the the the other up to 80%. Neither is a threat as you can see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 28, 2021 Author #59 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Very Busy. And 2 weeks until season midpoint. Depression 10 will move NNW and dissipate before any threat to Bermuda. The two orange spots are 60% and 50% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 29, 2021 Author #60 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Oof. Look at this busy map. While 10 & 11 are not threatening anyone, the new one coming off Africa is already at 80% chance. And a new yellow area off the mid Atlantic is at 20%. TD 10 is battling upper level winds but still expected to be a tropical storm, and move northward. TD 11 is moving off to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 30, 2021 Author #61 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Well as Ida fades we have plenty to watch. Nora in the Pacific moved inland and has been torn apart into a depression. In the Atlanic, TD 10 has hostile upper level winds, but still likely to be a tropical storm moving north, not a threat. There is a serious wave coming off Africa at 80% chance to develop. And a new area in the lower Caribbean at 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 30, 2021 Author #62 Share Posted August 30, 2021 TD 10 is named "Kate" but no threat. Not gonna make a thread. The wave from Africa is up to 90%. The one in the Caribbean is still 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 30, 2021 Author #63 Share Posted August 30, 2021 This is Kate's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PelicanBill Posted August 31, 2021 Author #64 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Nothing has changed from above. Now moving to a new thread for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Please sign in to comment
You will be able to leave a comment after signing in
Sign In Now