August Discussions for distrubances

[PelicanBill]

A lot of spread in the intensity model runs. Category 1 seems likely for a gulf coast landfall. Still early.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png

[PelicanBill]

As o f8am EDT, left to right 90%, 70%, 50%...

[PelicanBill]

We have depression 9, and the chances on the others are 70% and 50% now (over 5 days)

[PelicanBill]

Forecast on TD 9. Winds up to 110mph before landfall - this is strong Cat 2 almost Cat 3.

The entire Gulf coast and cities from Galveston to Tallahassee need to start preparations.

[Prismism]

This is getting real.

[rkacruiser]

4 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Forecast on TD 9. Winds up to 110mph before landfall - this is strong Cat 2 almost Cat 3.

The entire Gulf coast and cities from Galveston to Tallahassee need to start preparations.

 

The projected path looks good for bringing my area some much needed rain.  But, the path up the Mississippi looks somewhat like what I remember when Ike paid us a visit in September several years ago.  We don't want another Ike.  

[PelicanBill]

Two areas at 70% and Ike has been named.  New thread for Ida.

Ida does look a bit dangerous.

[PelicanBill]

One dropped down to 60%, the the the other up to 80%. Neither is a threat as you can see.

[PelicanBill]

Very Busy.  And 2 weeks until season midpoint. Depression 10 will move NNW and dissipate before any threat to Bermuda. The two orange spots are 60% and 50% chance.

[PelicanBill]

Oof. Look at this busy map.  While 10 & 11 are not threatening anyone, the new one coming off Africa is already at 80% chance.  And a new yellow area off the mid Atlantic is at 20%. TD 10 is battling upper level winds but still expected to be a tropical storm, and move northward. TD 11 is moving off to the NE.

[PelicanBill]

Well as Ida fades we have plenty to watch.

Nora in the Pacific moved inland and has been torn apart into a depression.

In the Atlanic, TD 10 has hostile upper level winds, but still likely to be a tropical storm moving north, not a threat.

There is a serious wave coming off Africa at 80% chance to develop.

And a new area in the lower Caribbean at 20%.

[PelicanBill]

TD 10 is named "Kate" but no threat. Not gonna make a thread.  The wave from Africa is up to 90%.

The one in the Caribbean is still 20%.

[PelicanBill]

This is Kate's forecast.

[PelicanBill]

Nothing has changed from above.  Now moving to a new thread for September.