Cruise Next Certificate Extensions

[vpearlkc]

Has anyone heard anything about certificates being extended again. Ours will be expiring next December and we have no intention of cruising until all covid testing requirements are ended. My wife and I have both been vaccinated and had our boosters but don't want be denied boarding or quarantined due to a positive test. Still have one cruise booked but will be cancelling before final payment.

[bccruiser2007]

Just got off the phone to ncl.  They tell me all cruise next certificates have been extended from Dec 31 2021 to Dec 31, 2022.

However, still has not shown on my account.

[phillygwm]

16 hours ago, vpearlkc said:

Has anyone heard anything about certificates being extended again. Ours will be expiring next December and we have no intention of cruising until all covid testing requirements are ended. My wife and I have both been vaccinated and had our boosters but don't want be denied boarding or quarantined due to a positive test. Still have one cruise booked but will be cancelling before final payment.

I don't think NCL would make this decision a year out, or at all if they can avoid it.  The question they'd probably ask before coming to that decision is whether demand at the end of 2022 will meet supply.  There will probably never come a day where everyone comfortable with sailing in 2019 will want to get back on a ship.  But, with proper precautions, can they get pretty close?

 

I can't see NCL eliminating COVID testing requirements as long as there are people filling up ICUs. That probably won't happen over the next year.  Maybe if/when COVID is better controlled but that isn't today.  Right now, I'd say considerably more people sail NCL BECAUSE of the precautions rather than despite them.  

 

Think about it:  There are a fair number of people who have fake vax cards.  Except for those with digital proof (which NCL doesn't request) they are basically taking people at their word because passengers only have an unsecure piece of paper.  Having cruised last week, I can tell you the agents barely glance at it so it wouldn't be difficult to counterfeit if someone was inclined.  I suspect they've privately baked in a certain number of people doing that into their estimates.  At least if everyone is proven to have tested negative, that's some level (nothing is 100%!) of security.    

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by phillygwm

[n4w]

10 hours ago, phillygwm said:

I don't think NCL would make this decision a year out, or at all if they can avoid it. 

 

The decision must be made this week, a lot of the CNCs expire in seven days.

Edited December 24, 2021 by n4w
clarification

[kjquilts]

4 minutes ago, n4w said:

The decision must be made this week, the CNCs expire in seven days.

I booked a cruise this week and asked that they use cruisenext that showed 12/31/2021 expiration.  Wonderful woman assisting me said it actually expired 12/31/2022 as it had been extended.  You can always call NCL and ask them to give you the expiration date.

[phillygwm]

1 hour ago, n4w said:

The decision must be made this week, a lot of the CNCs expire in seven days.

Those have been extended to 12/31/22.  

[Roger88]

1 hour ago, n4w said:

The decision must be made this week, a lot of the CNCs expire in seven days.

I think it will happen on the very last day. There is some weird reason to it which I dont know but they will keep everyone waiting untill the very last day. God know what happens behind those walls and what decisions they are taking 

[n4w]

On 12/24/2021 at 9:35 AM, phillygwm said:

Those have been extended to 12/31/22.  

I don't think this is the case; I spoke with a normal rep by chat and phone yesterday and spoke with a CruiseNext rep just now.  There has been no extension in additional to the original COVID extension, no extension to 12/31/22...yet.

[HuliHuli]

On 12/24/2021 at 1:14 AM, phillygwm said:

as long as there are people filling up ICUs.

Please provide the hard data supporting this statement.

 

On 12/24/2021 at 1:14 AM, phillygwm said:

There are a fair number of people who have fake vax cards.

Please provide the hard data supporting this statement.

 

On 12/24/2021 at 1:14 AM, phillygwm said:

I suspect they've privately baked in a certain number of people doing that into their estimates.

Please provide the hard data supporting this statement.

[MagnoliaBlossom]

I had a certificate that was to expire 12/31/21 and received a letter that they extended it ti 1/31/22.  Wow, a whole month.   

[n4w]

8 minutes ago, MagnoliaBlossom said:

I had a certificate that was to expire 12/31/21 and received a letter that they extended it ti 1/31/22.  Wow, a whole month.   

I believe that is for FCC, not CruiseNext.

[MagnoliaBlossom]

Yea, you’re right.  My mistake.

But I did have a certificate to expire on 2/1/2022, so was “forced” to book a January cruise, lest I lose it. 🤣

Edited December 27, 2021 by MagnoliaBlossom

[phillygwm]

2 hours ago, HuliHuli said:

Please provide the hard data supporting this statement.

 

Please provide the hard data supporting this statement.

 

Please provide the hard data supporting this statement.

You can easily Google the first two points.  As for the third, I'm not privy to NCL's proprietary data but they'd be delusional to think that not a single passenger has not presented a fake card.  

[vacruizer]

I have a CruiseNext cert expiring in January 2022 and NCl has declined to extend it. It’s been applied to several bookings now that never sailed.  Of course none of us could have ever anticipated when buying these back in 2018 that a good portion of the four year term would have no cruises. I have it applied to a late January booking to finally try and use it but am told it is forfeited if that cruise is cancelled. 
 

Would be nice if NCL showed a little grace and extended those purchased pre-pandemic by the 18 months or so they weren’t able to be used but lesson learned - I won’t ever buy another one. 

Edited December 27, 2021 by vacruizer

[HuliHuli]

1 hour ago, phillygwm said:

You can easily Google the first two points.  As for the third, I'm not privy to NCL's proprietary data but they'd be delusional to think that not a single passenger has not presented a fake card.  

Indeed there is significant data available publicly that disputes your statements:

1. As to ICU's, they have been below 80% capacity for more than a year now with only about 20% of the capacity attributable to COVID-19 cases.  Thus your assertion that "people [are] filling up ICUs" due to COVID related issues is demonstrably false.
2. As to "fake vax cards" what little data that does exist on their prevalence suggests that they account for a fraction of one percent of the total number of vaccinated people in the U.S.  I would not consider that "a fair number of people."
3. And as to you last point, as you say you are "not privy to NCL's proprietary data."   Thus in fact your statement is purely speculative, despite the double negative "to think that not a single passenger has not presented a fake card."

Thus my conclusion that your original post is malarkey.

[The Traveling Man]

4 hours ago, MagnoliaBlossom said:

I had a certificate that was to expire 12/31/21 and received a letter that they extended it ti 1/31/22.  Wow, a whole month.   

There are different procedures for Cruise Next Deposits and Future Cruise Credits.  The FCCs issued during the past two years for cruises cancelled by Covid were set to expire on 12/31/21.  NCL extended the "book by" date on those to 1/31/2022 but kept the "sail by" date at 12/31/2022.  So far as I know, NCL has not made a mass extension of the expiration dates for CNDs.  CNDs would have an expiration date four years after the cruise on which they were purchased.

[MagnoliaBlossom]

The problem many of us frequent cruisers have is that we are experiencing inf multiple rebooking/cancellation cycles and it seems quite unfair to penalize people when their certicates could not be be used on a viable cruise.

 

ii am a die hard NCL enthusiast (but not “cheerleader” because, as PP, I’ll call them out in a heartbeat when they’ve disrespected their cruisers).    NCLs website has always been lacking in its availability of full financial information.   My PPC can tell me which Ffuture cruise certificate was applied/cancelled to what cruise.  I cannot access that information.   As they have recently done another less than useful website revision, it would be nice if they would give customers access to the same information our agents have.  If nothing else, it would cut down on my calls to Vicky saying what?…..

 

As a perfect example - in mid December I received a letter fromNCL telling me I had FCC about to expire on 12/31/21 but they had extended them to 1/31/22.   What?  I logged in to my account and saw I had 2 FCC of $300 +, one for me and DH from an NCL cancelled cruise and a 10% discount from another 1NCL cancelled cruise.  I had never noticed either of these in my account before and really thought they had already been applied to 2023 bookings.

 

when I finally reached my PCC, she was amazed at what I was seeing in my account as all the FCCs had been applied to future bookings, and yes, I did have one certificate expiring but all else had been done.  What?   A few days later I looked at my account and all those about to expire items were gone.   As I talked to my PCC she said parts of their web site has been down for 24 hours due to corrections that needed to be made, and. That probably accounted to the inadvertent notice of my unused FCCs..

 

I went into this conversation with her thinking I had $600+ of FCC and one certificate about to expire.   As it turned out  I had only 1 certificate and the FCC had already been applied to future cruises.   What a mess.   We did book a last minute cruise in January to avoid losing the certificate, but the remainder was anxiety that didn’t need to happen.

 

NCL needs to find a way to improve the financial side of its website, because this puts an undue burden on its agents and its customers.

 

 

[Junonia]

On 12/27/2021 at 2:08 PM, phillygwm said:

You can easily Google the first two points.  As for the third, I'm not privy to NCL's proprietary data but they'd be delusional to think that not a single passenger has not presented a fake card.  

John Stossel sued Facebook. They admitted in court that their fact checkers were "merely opinions". So googling bs to turn up more bs will just give you that- more bs. 

Second point, there are databases of who took the shots, what lot number and date. Just because the public may not be aware of it, I assure you, it exists. It is information required by law to be sent to each state's dep't of health database. How do you suppose airlines have caught people trying to vacation in Hawaii with fake vax cards?

Please stop repeating malarkey. Hard evidence is required for "conspiracy theories".

[phillygwm]

3 minutes ago, Junonia said:

John Stossel sued Facebook. They admitted in court that their fact checkers were "merely opinions". So googling bs to turn up more bs will just give you that- more bs. 

Second point, there are databases of who took the shots, what lot number and date. Just because the public may not be aware of it, I assure you, it exists. It is information required by law to be sent to each state's dep't of health database. How do you suppose airlines have caught people trying to vacation in Hawaii with fake vax cards?

Please stop repeating malarkey. Hard evidence is required for "conspiracy theories".

There's a big difference between Hawaii and NCL.  From the Hawaii DOH site:  "The vaccination record document must be uploaded to Safe Travels and printed out prior to departure and the traveler must have a hard copy in hand when arriving in Hawaiʻi. The State of Hawai‘i will also accept vaccine records that are digitally validated by Digital Health Pass Partners"

I just cruised a few weeks ago.  NCL doesn't require the vax card be uploaded in advance and the check at the pier is a cursory one.  You don't even need the original card; a photo of it is fine.  

 

You're correct that states maintain databases, so do a lot of the larger pharmacies/health systems.  However, NCL is not a government entity.  They would have direct access to those databases.

 

I assure you, I'm not a conspiracy theorist.  It takes a simple Google search to find many sites where one could purchase fake cards and there are numerous stories of people who have been caught.  But if you think that's 100%, you're deluding yourself.

[MichiganBound]

Like many others, I have CruiseNext certificates expiring in the next four months.  Any updates on whether they will be extended?  The data points in this thread seem contradictory so I don't think a blanket extension has occurred yet.  Given NCL has reinstated the Peace-of-Mind policy, I'm hoping they also extend the CruiseNext expiry dates.  No way I'm planning a cruise in the next few months unless the COVID situation improves dramatically.

 

Any news or thoughts?

[n4w]

When I was on the phone with the the last rep in the CruiseNext dept, the position remained that there is no extension.  Later the same day, I logged in to my account and saw that the expiration date was changed to 12/31/2002.

It is important to note though, that even though the use by date has been pushed out, it appears that sail by dates have not changed, must sail by 12/31/2022.  Even the new FCC handed out through the revived POM has sail by 12/31/2022.  NCL wants/needs to get these credits out of the way.

[BermudaBound2014]

On 12/27/2021 at 4:40 PM, HuliHuli said:

Indeed there is significant data available publicly that disputes your statements:

1. As to ICU's, they have been below 80% capacity for more than a year now with only about 20% of the capacity attributable to COVID-19 cases.  Thus your assertion that "people [are] filling up ICUs" due to COVID related issues is demonstrably false.
2. As to "fake vax cards" what little data that does exist on their prevalence suggests that they account for a fraction of one percent of the total number of vaccinated people in the U.S.  I would not consider that "a fair number of people."
3. And as to you last point, as you say you are "not privy to NCL's proprietary data."   Thus in fact your statement is purely speculative, despite the double negative "to think that not a single passenger has not presented a fake card."

Thus my conclusion that your original post is malarkey.

 

I think you are in the ballpark for #1 and have no clue about #3, but I think you might be underestimating #2.

 

I have anecdotal evidence that approximately 30% of Michigan college students used a fake card when Universities implemented mandatory vaccines. According to this article, my estimate is low.

https://universitybusiness.com/are-more-than-40-of-unvaccinated-college-students-really-submitting-fake-cards/

 

 

This article is interesting because it points exponential growth in the new 'fake card' market. If there are 10,000 sellers on the one app mentioned in the article, how many sellers really exist? Obviously we don't know the answer to that question, but I suspect it's a reasonable number.

  https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2021/09/16/fake-vaccine-card-sales-have-skyrocketed-since-biden-mandate

 

 

Here is an article from Forbes suggesting 6% of Americans personally know someone with a fake vaccine card. https://www.forbes.com/video/6288325928001/6-of-us-adults-know-someone-with-a-fake-vaccine-card/?sh=63693f043d11

 

 

I can't quantify a 'fair amount' , but I believe ample evidence exists to conclude that the number of fake cards in circulation is an issue that needs addressing. Certainly it's illegal, but based on my research there are only a very few people that have actually been caught using a fake card (likely because the cards aren't verified against a data base) and those that are caught are rarely punished. Certainly a few cases exist here and there, but the ratio of cards in use to people being prosecuted is minimal. 

 

 

 

[MichiganBound]

13 minutes ago, n4w said:

When I was on the phone with the the last rep in the CruiseNext dept, the position remained that there is no extension.  Later the same day, I logged in to my account and saw that the expiration date was changed to 12/31/2002.

It is important to note though, that even though the use by date has been pushed out, it appears that sail by dates have not changed, must sail by 12/31/2022.  Even the new FCC handed out through the revived POM has sail by 12/31/2022.  NCL wants/needs to get these credits out of the way.

I just checked my account again.  My CruiseNext certificates still show expiration in April 2022.  It seems to me all CN certificates should be extended by 12 months.

[HuliHuli]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I think you are in the ballpark for #1 and have no clue about #3, but I think you might be underestimating #2.

Thanks @BermudaBound2014 for contributing to the debate.  I would first respond that it was not my responsibility (nor yours) to validate the assertions posted by others.  But I like to 'test' assertions made to gauge their truth.  As to point #1, my response comes from JHU data, which has been the most authoritative data throughout the pandemic.  I did not attempt to assess the voracity of point #3.  That leaves point #2, where you provided some reasonable data upon which to draw conclusions.  So analyzing your report citations:

1. University Business states “Many [colleges and universities] have reported significant compliance, with more than 90% of populations receiving doses."  That leaves <10% unvaccinated.
2. The Intelligent.com report states “At schools that mandate the COVID-19 vaccine, 55% of unvaccinated students lie about being vaccinated.”  That results in 5.5% of the student population who are unvaccinated and lied about being vaccinated.
3. Intelligent.com goes on to say “46% of students who lied did so by creating or purchasing a fake vaccination card.”  So the net result is ≈2.5% of the student population who lied about being vaccinated using fake vaccination cards.
4. Now, we also must take into account the survey Margin of Error (MoE), i.e., the degree of error in results received from random sampling surveys and thus the confidence level the researchers should have in the data obtained from their survey.  Intelligent.com states they surveyed 1,250 unvaccinated students.  Note that University Business states “The sample size is small, so it is difficult to gauge how prevalent the practice might be in higher education.”  We also know that the whole of the respondents admit to having previously lied.  Based on the survey numbers, the margin of error for this report is estimated at ≈2.76%.
5. I also note the Forbes survey states “6% of Americans personally know someone who is unvaccinated and has a fake vaccine card.”  That percentage falls outside the Intelligent.com study range taking into account the margin of error.  Different study, different question, different population and unknown MoE doesn’t provide much basis to correlate the two results.

My evaluation of your data suggests a very small percentage (±2.5%) of college students may actually be using fake vaccine cards.  We can debate if that meets an individual’s definition of “a fair amount” but I conclude that the ratio of cards in use to people using fake card is minimal based on the selected survey data.

Cheers and Happy New Year.

Edited December 31, 2021 by HuliHuli
typo

[Cb2534]

I just threw my Cruise Next Certificates onto a December 2022 sailing about an hour ago just so I wouldn't lose them today.   I checked my account and the expiration date had not changed from the today's "use or lose" expiration date.     So now I have 4 CNC's on cruises I have no interest in taking just so I wouldn't lose them.    I currently reside in Florida so I may try and jump on a cruise in February as prices are still good but I want to see what happens with covid over the next few weeks before giving them any of my money.   There is a good possibility I will be eventually eating the $500 we spent on CNC back at the end of 2018 in light of the circumstances and huge increases in pricing for cruises later in 2022 and throughout 2023.