Could a CDC change to pre-cruise testing requirements be coming soon?

[Ipeeinthepools]

2 hours ago, RichYak said:

It would be great to keep ALL of the positive cases off the ship, then there would be no need for any on board protocols like isolation. Unfortunately, that's not possible.

 

I don't think any of us know how to keep All positive cases off the ship, doesn't it make sense to keep as many as possible off the ship?

[Ipeeinthepools]

2 hours ago, RichYak said:

It would be great to keep ALL of the positive cases off the ship, then there would be no need for any on board protocols like isolation. Unfortunately, that's not possible.

 

I don't think any of us know how to keep All positive cases off the ship, doesn't it make sense to keep as many as possible off the ship?

[Peteymil]

11 hours ago, lovrccl said:

I think the bigger issue is the crew getting sick. If they relax guest requirements to cruise it could lead to more covid on ships. Which then effects the guest experience if crew is sick. It's a crazy situation for the cruise lines. I myself don't want to pay for a cruise and have bad service. 

I think you hit the nail on the head. If crew gets sick during a cruise, it's not like you can get substitutes in the middle of the ocean. 

[Guest ldtr]

8 hours ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

Being fully vaccinated really has little to do with the benefit of pre-cruise testing.   Keeping Covid positive people off the ship is a benefit to both fully vaccinated people as well as anyone that might not have had all of the available vaccinations.

If you look at the 3 primary methods be used on ships at various times  vaccination, testing and masking.  All of them are effective to some degree in reducing spread on though none of them can total prevent spread.  While there is a wide range to the numbers depending upon a number of conditions there are some approximate numbers that can be used to demonstrate.

 

Vaccination (from about 4 weeks to 6 months after last shot) is is about 40% effective in preventing spread and infection (much higher is preventing serious illness).  

 

Masking is also about 50% effective in reducing spread (with good quality masks)

 

Antigen testing will identify about half of the cases of asymptomatic Covid.

 

So if you have an R0 of 10 in an unmasked, unvaccinated population then requiring vaccination will reduce that spread to an R0 of around 6.  Add masking and it will reduce it to about 3.  Will not eliminate spread but will reduce it.

 

If testing identifies and keeps 50% of the cases off of the ship then you have a 50% reduction in the number of cases and with vaccination reduced spread.

 

To put it in perspective if the number of cases in public were such that 6 people would have it getting on a cruise, then without vaccination on a 7 day cruise one would expect about 660 cases by the end of the cruise.

 

With vaccination one would expect  around 260  cases.

 

Add in testing to vaccination and one would expect 120 cases.

 

Add in masking and the number would be about 36.  

 

 

 

It really comes down to how many cases the cruise lines feel that they can tolerate.

 

The cruise lines have a good idea of what they are seeing case wise. Of course most cases on ship are not detected since there is not testing at the end of the cruise.  The only ones showing up are those that development symptoms and choose to be tested.  We do not have access to that data but they certainly know how many test positive on board.

 

Cruise lines can survive with some cases, what they cannot survive with is lots of cases, or anything above a pretty small number of serious cases.

Edited June 20, 2022 by ldtr

[Ronin23]

11 hours ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

 

Ok, let's say we're going to cruise together.  😀  Let's assume I test positive before we board.  Would it be better for you if I am denied boarding?  Is it better for me if I am denied being Covid positive?  Even though I know you will be sad, I'll suggest the answer to both of those questions is yes.  That's why pre-cruise testing continues to be valuable.

As COVID is endemic, I suppose you would like to see pre cruise testing into perpetuity?

 

Also, how does pre cruise testing help with a passenger that picks it up the very next day on a shore excursion and brings it back on board?

 

 

[Ipeeinthepools]

1 hour ago, Ronin23 said:

As COVID is endemic, I suppose you would like to see pre cruise testing into perpetuity?

 

Also, how does pre cruise testing help with a passenger that picks it up the very next day on a shore excursion and brings it back on board?

 

 

 

Your absolutely correct, it doesn't help with your example, but keeping known Covid positive people from boarding the ship at the beginning of the cruise still helps the person that is infected as well as everyone else on the ship.  I think pre-cruise testing should be continued as long as quarantine and isolation protocols are in place for infected people and close contacts.  

 

[BigTorino]

5 hours ago, ldtr said:

If you look at the 3 primary methods be used on ships at various times  vaccination, testing and masking.  All of them are effective to some degree in reducing spread on though none of them can total prevent spread.  While there is a wide range to the numbers depending upon a number of conditions there are some approximate numbers that can be used to demonstrate.

 

Vaccination (from about 4 weeks to 6 months after last shot) is is about 40% effective in preventing spread and infection (much higher is preventing serious illness).  

 

Masking is also about 50% effective in reducing spread (with good quality masks)

 

Antigen testing will identify about half of the cases of asymptomatic Covid.

 

So if you have an R0 of 10 in an unmasked, unvaccinated population then requiring vaccination will reduce that spread to an R0 of around 6.  Add masking and it will reduce it to about 3.  Will not eliminate spread but will reduce it.

 

If testing identifies and keeps 50% of the cases off of the ship then you have a 50% reduction in the number of cases and with vaccination reduced spread.

 

To put it in perspective if the number of cases in public were such that 6 people would have it getting on a cruise, then without vaccination on a 7 day cruise one would expect about 660 cases by the end of the cruise.

 

With vaccination one would expect  around 260  cases.

 

Add in testing to vaccination and one would expect 120 cases.

 

Add in masking and the number would be about 36.  

 

 

 

It really comes down to how many cases the cruise lines feel that they can tolerate.

 

The cruise lines have a good idea of what they are seeing case wise. Of course most cases on ship are not detected since there is not testing at the end of the cruise.  The only ones showing up are those that development symptoms and choose to be tested.  We do not have access to that data but they certainly know how many test positive on board.

 

Cruise lines can survive with some cases, what they cannot survive with is lots of cases, or anything above a pretty small number of serious cases.

Celebrity knows how many of their crew test positive because they test crew once a week. If crew positivity rate is any indication, they know. It may not be a perfect sample however, because close contacts among the crew also get quarantined. Maybe you could elaborate on that? You seem to know a lot. It sounds like stopping pre-cruse testing could be disastrous for crew health. Thanks!

[Ipeeinthepools]

14 minutes ago, BigTorino said:

Celebrity knows how many of their crew test positive because they test crew once a week. If crew positivity rate is any indication, they know. It may not be a perfect sample however, because close contacts among the crew also get quarantined. Maybe you could elaborate on that? You seem to know a lot. It sounds like stopping pre-cruse testing could be disastrous for crew health. Thanks!

 

Yep, that's correct.

[mfs2k]

Testing doesn’t eliminate Covid onboard. It reduces Covid on board. 

I know there are many people who would like to see pre-cruise testing eliminated and find it annoying but if it prevents 25 other passengers with Covid from boarding, I’m ok with it.
 

If I test positive before a cruise, I shouldn’t be around 3,000 other people on a ship, even though I wish I didn’t know I had Covid. 

[Ride-The-Waves]

Looks like there are numerous posters who are against medical testing, testing to determine if one has cancer, a disease, or whatever.  COVID-19 is a virus easily transmitted between humans of all kinds.  Makes sense from my perspective to know if I'm ill, or not.  Makes sense to practice good protocols to stay healthy.  Testing is one way to know your health,  And, its not just a US CDC requirement.  Flying to Rome today.  Italy requires masking in many public places, to include transportation of all kinds.  Celebrity has informed they require pre-cruise testing to embark in Italy.  We will do that in Rome.  

 

If one doesn't like ,medical testing, doesn't like to know if you are infected, likes to infect others. then, yes, eliminate all medical testing.  Or, alternatively, stay off cruise ships and keep your infection transmission to your local environment.  

[LGW59]

13 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Looks like there are numerous posters who are against medical testing, testing to determine if one has cancer, a disease, or whatever.  COVID-19 is a virus easily transmitted between humans of all kinds.  Makes sense from my perspective to know if I'm ill, or not.  Makes sense to practice good protocols to stay healthy.  Testing is one way to know your health,  And, its not just a US CDC requirement.  Flying to Rome today.  Italy requires masking in many public places, to include transportation of all kinds.  Celebrity has informed they require pre-cruise testing to embark in Italy.  We will do that in Rome.  

 

If one doesn't like ,medical testing, doesn't like to know if you are infected, likes to infect others. then, yes, eliminate all medical testing.  Or, alternatively, stay off cruise ships and keep your infection transmission to your local environment.  

May you please provide the posts where numerous posters have said they are against medical testing for cancer.  I must have missed it.

[Tigerfnan23]

8 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

May you please provide the posts where numerous posters have said they are against medical testing for cancer.  I must have missed it.

 

If you aren't for testing for all of perpetuity then you are a selfish SOB who hates science and wants your fellow passengers to die a horrible death.  Have you not met any of these COVID people on the Internet before?

[AbbyCruiser45]

31 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Looks like there are numerous posters who are against medical testing, testing to determine if one has cancer, a disease, or whatever.

Really insensitive and a mind boggling comparison. You can be against measures that are largely not changing the number of cases on board (comparing this summer to last, when there wasn’t testing) and 100% for preventative healthcare. I should know as my mom was diagnosed with stage 3 colon cancer this year after a regular colonoscopy. Yet, both she and I see the fault in pre-arrival testing. 

[RichYak]

10 hours ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

 

I don't think any of us know how to keep All positive cases off the ship, doesn't it make sense to keep as many as possible off the ship?

It makes sense given the harsh isolation requirements for passengers and especially the crew.

[canderson]

4 hours ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

 

Your absolutely correct, it doesn't help with your example, but keeping known Covid positive people from boarding the ship at the beginning of the cruise still helps the person that is infected as well as everyone else on the ship.  I think pre-cruise testing should be continued as long as quarantine and isolation protocols are in place for infected people and close contacts.  

 

What if those protocols were dropped tomorrow?

[TeeRick]

4 hours ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

 

Your absolutely correct, it doesn't help with your example, but keeping known Covid positive people from boarding the ship at the beginning of the cruise still helps the person that is infected as well as everyone else on the ship.  I think pre-cruise testing should be continued as long as quarantine and isolation protocols are in place for infected people and close contacts.  

 

So pre-cruise COVID testing should continue until we reach a COVID-Zero status, thus resulting in elimination of Q&I protocols on ships?  Is that what you are saying? Maybe I'm misinterpreting.   

 

So if not until COVID-Zero status, then when in your opinion? How many cases are acceptable if not zero, given that the virus is with us forever?   Are a few occasional positives on board any different from what we face traveling to the ship or shopping for our pre-cruise wardrobes? I would say less of an issue as the ship requires vaccines (and hopefully Up To Date vaccines).  My local theaters or restaurants or public buses (or schools) do not.  One of the only places you can go where everybody is vaccinated is a cruise ship.   There is no pre-flight testing anymore.  Or pre-testing for most of our daily activities.  We test ourselves if we feel the need.  That is what it will be going forward for the remainder of our lives.  So I ask again, what is the actual benchmark that we are waiting for to eliminate pre-cruise testing?  Or should we do it forever?  A thought question.

[RichYak]

2 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

So pre-cruise COVID testing should continue until we reach a COVID-Zero status, thus resulting in elimination of Q&I protocols on ships?  Is that what you are saying? Maybe I'm misinterpreting. 

That's not how I read it, but I could be wrong.

[TeeRick]

Just now, RichYak said:

That's not how I read it, but I could be wrong.

So in your opinion (which I respect)- what benchmark should be achieved to eliminate the requirement for pre-cruise testing?  Or do we do it forever?   Remember when we were all focused on the theoretical state of Herd Immunity which does not appear to be possible with this virus?

[ch175]

The problem with Covid testing is that a positive test does not guarantee that you are contagious, and a negative test does not guarantee that you are not contagious.

 

We are chasing something here that is impossible.

[Ken the cruiser]

Here's something interesting, depending on which cruise line you're sailing on, regarding the testing requirements when embarking and disembarking the ship in Barcelona. 

 

Celebrity:

 

Pre-Arrival/Embarkation Covid-19 Test

Up to Date* Guests: Must present a negative Antigen test taken within 2 days prior to sailing. Testing at the terminal will not be required.

 

Fully-Vaccinated** Guests: Must present a negative Antigen test taken within 1 day of sailing. Testing at the terminal will not be required.

 

Unvaccinated Guests: Must present either a negative Antigen test taken within 1 day of sailing or have the option to be tested at the Terminal prior to Embarkation. 

 

Debark Testing

Up-to-Date* Guests: No test required. 

Fully Vaccinated**: Antigen test will be required within 24 hours of debark in Spain.

Unvaccinated*: Antigen test will be required within 24 hours of debark in Spain.

 

Travel Requirements for Barcelona Cruises | Celebrity Cruises

 

Princess:

 

UPDATED: Will I need to have a pre-travel viral COVID-19 test performed prior to boarding the ship?

Based on current European Union Healthy Gateways (EUHG) guidelines, to board the ship, all guests ages five years and above will require a medically observed, negative viral COVID-19 test (PCR or antigen) result taken within three days of embarkation. These protocols are subject to change and we’ll communicate any updates as they become available. Current testing requirements are as follows:

Vaccination Status	European Union Healthy Gateways Guideline	Pre-Travel Test-Type	When to Take Test Before Boarding
Fully Vaccinated (ages 18 years old and above)	At least 14 days past completion of a primary vaccine series and no more than 270 days (9 months) from the date of disembarkation since receiving the last dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine. A booster dose is required for guests 18 and older if the last COVID-19 vaccine dose in series is older than 9 months (270 days) from the date of disembarkation.	Antigen or PCR	Within 3 days*
Fully Vaccinated (ages five to 17 years old)	Received primary series of COVID-19 vaccines with final dose at least 14 days before embarkation.	Antigen or PCR	Within 3 days*
Not Fully Vaccinated	Either not up to date or has not received a complete COVID-19 vaccine series.	PCR	Within 3 days*

*For cruises embarking in Greece: The Greek government requires guests to take a PCR test within 3 days of embarkation or an Antigen test within 2 days of embarkation.

 

CruiseHealth™ FAQ: Sailings from Europe - Princess Cruises

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Ken the cruiser

[RichYak]

5 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

So in your opinion (which I respect)- what benchmark should be achieved to eliminate the requirement for pre-cruise testing?  Or do we do it forever?   Remember when we were all focused on the theoretical state of Herd Immunity which does not appear to be possible with this virus?

Once the on-board isolation requirements, particularly for crew, are reasonably relaxed, the pre-cruise testing can end.

[RichYak]

3 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Here's something interesting, depending on which cruise line you're sailing on, regarding the testing requirements when embarking and disembarking the ship in Barcelona. 

You gave us the debarkation requirements for Celebrity and the embarkation requirements for Princess.

[RichYak]

4 hours ago, Ipeeinthepools said:

 

I think pre-cruise testing should be continued as long as quarantine and isolation protocols are in place for infected people and close contacts.  

 

This is what I've been saying and agree 100%.

 

30 minutes ago, canderson said:

What if those protocols were dropped tomorrow?

I would welcome that.

[mfs2k]

41 minutes ago, AbbyCruiser45 said:

Yet, both she and I see the fault in pre-arrival testing. 

What is the fault with pre-arrival testing?

Would you like to board with undetected Covid ?

I’d rather your Covid be detected and you not be allowed to board. 

[Ride-The-Waves]

5 minutes ago, RichYak said:

You gave us the debarkation requirements for Celebrity and the embarkation requirements for Princess.

No.  Read it again.  Same protocols we are facing to embark Celebrity on Friday in Italy.