September-October Disturbance Discussions

[PelicanBill]

So here is what we see. The new potential storm is taking a very south course in the Caribbean.

it will impact the “ABC” islands and coast of Sourh America before moving to areas further west. 

 

[PelicanBill]

 

These are from teopicaltidbits.com.

as you can see, not consistent a week out.
 

 

[PelicanBill]

At any rate. Hurricane strength seems likely  and Eastern Gulf and Florida impacts seem very possible. Jamaica and Cayman Islands are in the path. 
 

Models do not show other western ports being impacted much as this point.

[BeachDiva101]

Thank you PelicanBill

 

I'm watching this new tropical storm that will most likely turn into a hurricane.  I'm supposed to be on the Horizon this Sunday for a western caribbean cruise.  Jamaica on Tuesday, GC on Wednesday, Cozumel on Thursday.  Don't think any of those are gonna happen now.   Waiting game now.  This is cruising during hurricane season, gotta be flexible and be prepared for changes. 

[Dreamer68]

9 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

So here is what we see. The new potential storm is taking a very south course in the Caribbean.

it will impact the “ABC” islands and coast of Sourh America before moving to areas further west. 

 

As I watch reports of the effects of Fiona on Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, and now seeing how the "ABC" islands may be affected by the next storm, I will definitely wait before deciding on a Nov. 4th/ 19th cruise. Am also feeling guilty that my discomfort is just whether or not we get to cruise (such a First World problem)...but those who live in the path of Nature's fury...ouf!! 

 

Thanks for your updates, Pelican Bill. Much appreciated! Stay safe, everyone!

[MandyMooToo]

Definitely concerned about our CocoCay and Labadee cruise on this Saturday.  Maybe more so our return flight home on the 29th out of Orlando/Sanford though.

[PelicanBill]

8 minutes ago, MandyMooToo said:

Definitely concerned about our CocoCay and Labadee cruise on this Saturday.  Maybe more so our return flight home on the 29th out of Orlando/Sanford though.

 

I don't see any impact to Coco Cay at all; Labadee should remain clear if the path holds.  Most track models stay well to the west of the Florida coast, but one set of models is closer.  Keep watching.

[PelicanBill]

19 hours ago, BeachDiva101 said:

Thank you PelicanBill

 

I'm watching this new tropical storm that will most likely turn into a hurricane.  I'm supposed to be on the Horizon this Sunday for a western caribbean cruise.  Jamaica on Tuesday, GC on Wednesday, Cozumel on Thursday.  Don't think any of those are gonna happen now.   Waiting game now.  This is cruising during hurricane season, gotta be flexible and be prepared for changes. 

So true.  I had two cruises affected by storms, and a third was completely changed after storms damaged 2 of our ports.

[PelicanBill]

Here's a look at track and intensity models.  It looks like it will steer clear of Florida and most cruise ports. If lucky, it will pass south of Jamaica and southwest of the Cayman Islands. 

 

Strength is likely to climb to hurricane strength, maybe Cat 2 or 3, so let's hope it fades before reaching the Gulf coast.

[PelicanBill]

Here's the big picture this week.  I didn't create a thread for Gaston as it never threatened anything.

There is a low probability wave in the middle and a moderate on the coast of Africa, and neither is an issue to ports and cruising.

[BeachDiva101]

I just wish I knew what carnival is thinking with regards to rerouting.  We obviously can’t go to the western Caribbean as planned (98L), can’t go to Eastern Caribbean (GT & PR messed up from Fiona), I think Bahamas is our only choice, but other ships and cruise lines will be effected too and you can’t send all the ships to Bahamas.  Also, there’s a chance of 98L hitting south Florida next Friday and Saturday.  

[wolft927]

2 minutes ago, BeachDiva101 said:

I just wish I knew what carnival is thinking with regards to rerouting.  We obviously can’t go to the western Caribbean as planned (98L), can’t go to Eastern Caribbean (GT & PR messed up from Fiona), I think Bahamas is our only choice, but other ships and cruise lines will be effected too and you can’t send all the ships to Bahamas.  Also, there’s a chance of 98L hitting south Florida next Friday and Saturday.  

I am Cruising the Eastern on a 9 day starting on the 29th. We are schedule for Puerto Plata and Puerto Rico. My guess those ports will be replaced by Nassau at least Since we are also stopping at Great Stirrup Cay.

[SUNNY SoFla]

According to Royal's meteorologist, he thinks Allure will be able to depart Fort Laud on 9/25 and "get ahead of the storm" to head to Roatan, Costa Maya and Cozumel. But to my untrained eye, it seems like we would be sailing into the path of the storm if we did that. I would feel much better if they would just switch us to an E Carib itinerary.

[PelicanBill]

1 hour ago, BeachDiva101 said:

I just wish I knew what carnival is thinking with regards to rerouting.  We obviously can’t go to the western Caribbean as planned (98L), can’t go to Eastern Caribbean (GT & PR messed up from Fiona), I think Bahamas is our only choice, but other ships and cruise lines will be effected too and you can’t send all the ships to Bahamas.  Also, there’s a chance of 98L hitting south Florida next Friday and Saturday.  

98L is unlikely to actually hit Florida... likely to stay well out in the Gulf. That is how the Cruise lines will play it. They try to make their decisions at the last possible moment.

[PelicanBill]

Here is a page with several track models and the intensity model for 98L.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#98L

If you look at each of the track models, you will see one set heads toward the Yucatan, one set toward Florida, and one set in between.  Generally, we see track models update over time more and more westerly which is why I don't really expect it to head to Florida.  

[BeachDiva101]

6 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

Here is a page with several track models and the intensity model for 98L.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#98L

If you look at each of the track models, you will see one set heads toward the Yucatan, one set toward Florida, and one set in between.  Generally, we see track models update over time more and more westerly which is why I don't really expect it to head to Florida.  

Wow, there’s a lot of different track lines.  By the time they truly figure out where this 98-L is headed and get solid info, I’ll probably be on the ship already (Sunday). 

[PelicanBill]

Well I have to eat my words.  98L is now TD 7 and that means real forecasting is taking place. They are choosing the eastern paths with a landfall on western Florida near Naples.  
 

it’s still far away and I have seen most of these forecasts shift west over time so we shall see. 
 

but the western ports look safe, and I don’t see it affecting Miami and Fort Lauderdale ports.

[wolft927]

1 minute ago, PelicanBill said:

Well I have to eat my words.  98L is now TD 7 and that means real forecasting is taking place. They are choosing the eastern paths with a landfall on western Florida near Naples.  
 

it’s still far away and I have seen most of these forecasts shift west over time so we shall see. 
 

but the western ports look safe, and I don’t see it affecting Miami and Fort Lauderdale ports.

I am cruising out of Port Canaveral on Thursday the 29th, Arrive Port Canaveral the 28th...I am confidant the ship will arrive and leave Thursday but figuring out the night before cruise plans again. 

[PelicanBill]

You can see how the models all shifted more toward Florida today.  However, the discussion on the NHC site says there is a lot of uncertainty and more westward drift is very possible.

[PelicanBill]

Oof. Update at 11am shows same path to Naples Florida, but with strength increasing to Cat 3.

[wolft927]

39 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Oof. Update at 11am shows same path to Naples Florida, but with strength increasing to Cat 3.

I am fully prepared for a delayed in boarding just hope NCL let’s us know as I do not want to drive down Wednesday if not boarding till Friday 

[PATRLR]

18 hours ago, wolft927 said:

I am fully prepared for a delayed in boarding just hope NCL let’s us know as I do not want to drive down Wednesday if not boarding till Friday 

You may want to look into reserving Thursday night at your hotel also.  Usually you can depart early without penalty, if so, at least you'll have the room if you find out last minute you can't get on till Friday.

[PelicanBill]

A very active map . New Thread coming for Ian, won't bother with Hermine.

[PelicanBill]

Note that as eyes are on Florida/Ian we have a new one following a similar early path…

 

[PelicanBill]

The disturbance out in the Atlantic is stronger now but moving slowly and turning NW, making it less of a concern.