Placeholder scheduling at AA (and others) - YouTube video

[FlyerTalker]

If you've ever been wondering why the flights you see (and book) 9-11 months out are changed before your flight, here's a very illuminating interview with Brian Znotis, the VP of Network Planning for American Airlines.

 

It's part of AA's internal communications effort, but available to everyone through YouTube.

 

https://youtu.be/yRbhqFJWl8c

 

In addition, here's the Cranky Flier blog post that was referenced in the video:

 

https://crankyflier.com/2022/08/18/contrary-to-popular-belief-american-did-not-slash-its-planned-november-flying/

 

Now, you may or may not agree with (or like) how AA (and others) approach scheduling, but at least you may now have a better understanding of why those "great flights", which you found and bought, don't end up being the ones you actually fly in the end.

 

As I always say, the informed consumer is the best consumer.

 

 

[ChrisB123]

Thanks for the information 

[CDNPolar]

Thanks for sharing this!  This was really interesting to listen to and understand.  It all makes sense.

 

I don't fly American typically, and wonder from your experience, is this typical of all airlines?  It is very understandable what he is explaining in this and I would say that similar to what he said about the 90 day window, we see our chosen paid for flights sit where we booked them until about the 90 day or less window and then the change comes.  We have been fortunate that we have not been canceled off a flight and put on another.

 

We tend to book 270 -300 days out and we use Air Canada, Lufthansa, British Air, EVA, Delta, and a few others from time to time.  What we have experienced is a lot of changes with Delta but we are talking 5 or 10 or 15 minutes change to the departure time.  The last Delta changed about 5 times, but only with departure times that were minor and did not impact our travels.

[FlyerTalker]

2 hours ago, CDNPolar said:

I don't fly American typically, and wonder from your experience, is this typical of all airlines?

 

To some varying degree, yes.  Some airlines are very locked into their schedules and make changes rarely and only for significant reason.  For example - when Southwest had a short booking window, where flights were only open for about 4 months at a time, they made few schedule changes.  As they have moved to a longer booking window, they are showing up with more and more changes.

 

Some airlines are almost "ad hoc".  I know of a few times when an airline has announced a new route and then cancelled it out of the schedule even before the first flight ever occurred.

 

As I mentioned, I am glad that Brian gave some explanation to the scheduling decisions - both for the benefit of the airline employees (who have to deal with upset customers) and their customers (who wonder why this happens).  And, as he says, it's not a matter of wholesale changes to the entire schedule, but more of targeted responses to market conditions.

 

 

[fbgd]

5 hours ago, CDNPolar said:

I don't fly American typically, and wonder from your experience, is this typical of all airlines? 

 

Of the more mainstream carriers, I'd say that you're far more likely to experience schedule changes on domestic/shorthaul flights on US carriers. IME, longhaul flights are less susceptible to schedule changes and also any flights with European and Asian carriers. I don't have much experience with African/S American airlines and their flights.

 

I'd go as far as to say that for legacy carriers on US domestic flights you can find that if you want to book 9+ months out say just book the cheapest flights on that day as you'll probably find that once you get involuntary rescheduled you get free choice of any flights. Book something you're happy with if you get stuck with it but it can be a real boon. A long time ago I was flying cross country with AA connecting in ORD. I booked a regular domestic FC ticket with 2-2 seating and got a very good deal as it was, something like $500 roundtrip. I experienced an involuntary reschedule and switched my BOS-ORD-SEA flights to BOS-JFK-LAX-SEA at no cost...the JFK-LAX flights being operated at the time with intl widebody style FC seats and far superior service. The cost of that JFK-LAX flight alone, one way, was about $2300...

 

 

[CDNPolar]

58 minutes ago, fbgd said:

 

Of the more mainstream carriers, I'd say that you're far more likely to experience schedule changes on domestic/shorthaul flights on US carriers. IME, longhaul flights are less susceptible to schedule changes and also any flights with European and Asian carriers. I don't have much experience with African/S American airlines and their flights

 

 

 

Makes sense that longhaul and overseas flights are less susceptible to changes.  I am sure that for a lot of airlines this is a dependable demand.

 

Most of our flights are overseas and minimum 7-8 hours to 16+ hours at the top end.  Perhaps that is why we really have not had this happen to us.

 

Also from Canada for us as cruisers, we live just outside of Toronto, and so we fly direct to most European cities not like friends of ours in the US that have to connect once before getting out of North America.  

 

 

[Globaliser]

43 minutes ago, fbgd said:

IME, longhaul flights are less susceptible to schedule changes and also any flights with European and Asian carriers.

 

I think this is right, and I suspect that there are structural reasons for this.

 

First, international flights are more likely to be subject to slot requirements and restrictions. This means that arrival and departure times are constrained by the slots that the airline holds and intends to use to operate its flights. This means that whenever the arrival or departure time of a flight is moved, another flight has to be moved as well. My impression is that this contributes to the relative stability of such schedules.

 

Second, if slots are relevant, the airline must use them responsibly. Typically, there are "use it or lose it" rules that require the airline to operate each specific slot at least (say) 80% of the time, or else the slot will be forfeited and could be allocated to another airline. Also, the actual times when the slot is used have to bear a proper relationship to the nominal slot time, so the airline can't hold an 0745 slot but only use it to operate a 1515 departure every day. These requirements probably also contribute to schedule stability; the contrary was illustrated during the pandemic, when "use it or lose it" rules were suspended in many places, and there were lots of cancellations at relatively short notice even after travel became permissible again.

 

Third, because of the Chicago Convention system governing international flights, these are more likely to be "out and back" rotations rather than the country-spanning apparently-random domestic itineraries that many airlines operate. Changing an operating pattern can have an effect on quite a number of flights in the network, but if there are no other real constraints on doing so, then the machines will work out how best to do this. In contrast, an "out and back" rotation either operates, or it doesn't. I suspect that this makes them less liable to be changed as a result of network-tweaking shenanigans.