Disturbances Discussions May-Jun-Jul-Aug 2023

[omahabob]

Bret is trending further south and weakening. It's projected to dissipate by Saturday night.

 

 

Cindy is trending more northward than before, and also expected to weaken. It's projected to be downgraded to a tropical depression by Tuesday.

 

 

Cruises should not see major impacts from these storms, but could possibly get minor inclement weather as remnants or peripheral effects from them.

 

[Bead Pirate]

I keep this map around for my own use during Hurricane Season, thought I would share...

 

[omahabob]

Thanks. That brings up another point. While these and many other storms may not have major impacts on cruise ships, the more minor peripheral effects could still create conditions that make tendering difficult. So if there's a tender port on your itinerary near storms like this, be aware that it could affect your port visits.

[cruise wizard]

17 minutes ago, omahabob said:

Thanks. That brings up another point. While these and many other storms may not have major impacts on cruise ships, the more minor peripheral effects could still create conditions that make tendering difficult. So if there's a tender port on your itinerary near storms like this, be aware that it could affect your port visits.

 

Even Coco Cay with having a pier that accommodates 2 large ships, we have missed the port because of high wind and heavy seas. There's not a tug boat for any assistance.

[omahabob]

Yeah. The pier is great, but there's no breakwater there to break the swell. And of course, there's the wind. But you don't really need a storm for that. Just a convergence zone will do that.

[AirGump]

Things seem to be looking better!  Fingers crossed.

[omahabob]

Wow. Just realized the images I posted above update here whenever NOAA updates them on their site. That's convenient.

 

Bret has now dissipated. Cindy is no longer projected to dissipate by Tuesday, but she's turning even more northward away from the Bahamas. Bermuda may get hit though.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by omahabob
Stupid keyboard

[AirGump]

1 hour ago, omahabob said:

Wow. Just realized the images I posted above update here whenever NOAA updates them on their site. That's convenient.

 

Bret has now dissipated. Cindy is no longer projected to dissipate by Tuesday, but she's turning even more northward away from the Bahamas. Bermuda may get hit though.

 

Thank you for all of your help!

[omahabob]

Glad to help. They don't expect anything more to develop in the next seven days.

[omahabob]

Cindy is now history.

 

We now return to our regularly scheduled cruises.

[Rothko1]

On 6/24/2023 at 12:29 PM, Bead Pirate said:

I keep this map around for my own use during Hurricane Season, thought I would share...

 

 

Interesting that it doesn't list Nassau as a cruise destination!  LOL

[omahabob]

The label is misleading. Those are not cruise destinations. They're private island/beach facilities the cruise lines use. Not sure about Freeport though....

[Rothko1]

It should also add Lighthouse Point, although I don't think that's quite open yet.

[BillOh]

Announcing my presence back in this forum! (No parade or fanfare needed)  Its been fun since we started doing Sept cruises back around 2016.   This year I might be tempting the Gods, after 21 Royal Cruises we booked an almost free Carnival Cruise -  I hope that doesn't destroy the time/space continuum and cause environmental havoc. 

 

[SPacificbound]

It will be interesting to hear how it goes and what you like, etc.

 

[omahabob]

Small low pressure system 800 miles east of Bermuda that has a decent chance of developing into a depression or storm in the next couple of days. But it's then expected to head north, which should weaken it by the weekend.  The weather being produced by this system is east and southeast, so it's unlikely to affect any cruise ports. It could affect a northern TA though.

[gerelmx]

A tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles to the 
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

 

Edited July 26, 2023 by gerelmx

[omahabob]

Only a 30% chance of development in the next week.

[omahabob]

Now up to a 60% chance of development in the next seven days.

[omahabob]

Chance went up to 70%, but it's expected to turn north in the next few days. So, it's unlikely to affect any cruises, except maybe a TA.

[eileeshb]

Thought I'd join this to inform on North Atlantic/European storms.  We just had our first for this year - Antoni which caused major flooding in Dublin, Ireland  and lots of wind east of Ireland.  It looks like another is developing in the middle of the Atlantic this time and Ireland will start feeling the affects on Thursday.  Our weather services are not anywhere near as committed to storm tracking or as good at storm predictions as USA. My family owns Ireland's oldest surf shop so I've looked at weather models for as long as they've been available online. The meteorologists here only started formally naming storm systems in fall of 2014 as they thought it would make people pay more attention to weather warnings.  We got hammered by 2 very different storms in January of 2014, the first nicknamed hurricane hercules did millions of euro worth of damage along the west facing coasts of Ireland and Britain through huge wave action, the second was nicknamed storm Darwin and did its damage to Eastern areas with wind, I saw motorway (highway) signs bent in half by the force of those winds. I look at the charts posted by the US fleet meteorology and oceanography services to see the longer term predictions. BTW our weather service usually publishes the naming list in September! So you can understand that Antoni was very early by our standards. At this time of year we'd usually be getting the tail end of the hurricanes and tropical storms named by the US services so we wouldn't need our own naming list yet. 

[omahabob]

That highlights a good point that I've been mostly discounting the storms that move north, away from the US Atlantic coast and Caribbean. I shouldn't have been doing that, obviously, since there are many TA and European cruises that could be affected by them. I'll try not to do that anymore. Though, admittedly, I don't have a lot of storm info sources for European systems.

[BillOh]

Back for another hello after catching up in this thread.  Just over a month till I break the time/space continium thing mentioned above.  Mostly seems quiet, but watching the hurricane nursery closer now.   

[omahabob]

Give it a pacifier and keep it quiet.

[SRQbeachgirl]

On 8/10/2023 at 11:39 AM, omahabob said:

Give it a pacifier and keep it quiet.

 

Agreed! We're still trying to put things back together from Ian.