Saga on Track to Deliver Significant Growth in 2024

[Host Jazzbeau]

New article in Cruise Industry News reports: “For 2023-24, Saga remains on track to deliver significant growth in revenue, in addition to an underlying profit more than double that of the prior year, exceeding our previous guidance.”

Saga on Track to Deliver Significant Growth in 2024

[LandC]

This is good news Jazzbeau, thanks for posting.  I see you are on a Silversea cruise at present.  We did that itinerary on Azamara in the opposite direction (Sydney to Auckland), and loved it.  We have yet to try Silversea.

 

Saga customers have been notified that it wants to enter into partnership arrangements to enable them to offer more cruises to more guests in the future.  Let’s hope these results will enable Saga to forge a successful partnership arrangement.

Edited January 31 by LandC
Addition

[Denarius]

Nice to see a positive post to counter the constant sniping of those with axes to grind.

[Windsurfboy]

It is good news, they can negotiate a partnership from a position of strength. 

 

When we were in Carribean docked along side new MSC expedition ship, 960 passenger 58,000 tons all balcony , all adult. A new venture for MSC.  What does it remind you of ?

[JMMKUK]

4 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

It is good news, they can negotiate a partnership from a position of strength. 

 

When we were in Carribean docked along side new MSC expedition ship, 960 passenger 58,000 tons all balcony , all adult. A new venture for MSC.  What does it remind you of ?

CC says max passengers approx 1400 & mentions children.

That would be a good match for people who had kids in their 40/50s, I know some, or grandparents wanting to have a holiday with the offspring for a change.

[JMMKUK]

CM not CC

[FatBoy20]

11 hours ago, JMMKUK said:

CC says max passengers approx 1400 & mentions children.

That would be a good match for people who had kids in their 40/50s, I know some, or grandparents wanting to have a holiday with the offspring for a change.

That's what Saga already offer!.

[Denarius]

9 minutes ago, FatBoy20 said:

That's what Saga already offer!.

Not quite. At present on Saga cruises the lead passenger must be 50 or older, companions at least 40. On my understanding what is being suggested is that as long as the lead passenger is at least 50 companions of any adult age, ie at least 18 would be accepted. This would allow people to be accompanied by their children or grandchildren.

[Windsurfboy]

The MSC website says 461 cabins 922 passengers, and 64000 tons (sorry I was wrong it's a bit bigger) so a slightly better passenger space ratio than Saga. Yes it does take children but not a family ship, priced slightly above Saga, well over double MSC big family ships

 

Main point is they have also identified the circa 1000 passenget ,nalll balcony ship  as a new market.

[JoJo1947]

11 hours ago, JMMKUK said:

CC says max passengers approx 1400 & mentions children.

That would be a good match for people who had kids in their 40/50s, I know some, or grandparents wanting to have a holiday with the offspring for a change.

Not on your life 😂

[JoJo1947]

Rather a lot of speculation here 😀. 

[JMMKUK]

22 minutes ago, Windsurfboy said:

The MSC website says 461 cabins 922 passengers, and 64000 tons (sorry I was wrong it's a bit bigger) so a slightly better passenger space ratio than Saga. Yes it does take children but not a family ship, priced slightly above Saga, well over double MSC big family ships

 

Main point is they have also identified the circa 1000 passenget ,nalll balcony ship  as a new market.

There's a big suite with a wraparound balcony. bet that's really expensive.

They are getting 6 of these ships.

Saga used to offer cruises on other lines. I remember Fred but there may have been others.

Personally I would prefer them to acquire a smaller ship, circa 500 passengers or less. Be lovely if they had a ship that could sail from Tower Bridge.

[Windsurfboy]

58 minutes ago, JoJo1947 said:

Rather a lot of speculation here 😀. 

 

That's the fun of CC 😁😁😁

[maesteggirl]

They already allow carers over the age of 18 on Saga ships. We were on the Adventure Christmas cruise and there was a lady in here 80s accompanied by her great-grandson as her carer.

[twotravellersLondon]

Brand new SAGA river ship just announced... Spirit of the Moselle... due to be launched in 2025! River cruises are in profit! Bodes well for the ocean cruise sector.

[tiggis]

But the stock market doesn’t appear to be impressed by the spate of recent news. The share price has dropped around 20% over the past couple of weeks.

[nosapphire]

41 minutes ago, twotravellersLondon said:

Brand new SAGA river ship just announced... Spirit of the Moselle... due to be launched in 2025! River cruises are in profit! Bodes well for the ocean cruise sector.

Do you have a link to this report, please?

Only reports I could find were back in 2022 when Saga were apparently getting an additional 4 new river boast, with the first to be launched in 2023. This was widely reported in 2022, but not seen any updates.

Since then, they have chartered Douro Spirit (renamed Spirit of the Douro) and one of the Amadeus ships (Amadeus Elegant) for the Moselle - but no further news about the 4 new builds.

https://newsroom.saga.co.uk/news/saga-announces-four-new-ships-to-join-river-cruise-fleet

[twotravellersLondon]

20 minutes ago, nosapphire said:

Do you have a link to this report, please?

Only reports I could find were back in 2022 when Saga were apparently getting an additional 4 new river boast, with the first to be launched in 2023. This was widely reported in 2022, but not seen any updates.

Since then, they have chartered Douro Spirit (renamed Spirit of the Douro) and one of the Amadeus ships (Amadeus Elegant) for the Moselle - but no further news about the 4 new builds.

https://newsroom.saga.co.uk/news/saga-announces-four-new-ships-to-join-river-cruise-fleet

 

 

We had an email this morning.

 

This is a bit of it...

 

 

WELCOME TO THE LATEST EDITION OFINSPIRE BY SAGA TRAVEL

Hot off the press – we are excited to reveal we’re launching a brand-new river cruise ship for 20‍25, Spirit of the Moselle. She’ll be the third purpose-built ship to join our river cruise fleet after Spirit of the Rhine and Spirit of the Danube. You can register your interest for our 20‍25 season now.

 

[nosapphire]

1 hour ago, twotravellersLondon said:

 

 

We had an email this morning.

 

This is a bit of it...

 

 

WELCOME TO THE LATEST EDITION OFINSPIRE BY SAGA TRAVEL

Hot off the press – we are excited to reveal we’re launching a brand-new river cruise ship for 20‍25, Spirit of the Moselle. She’ll be the third purpose-built ship to join our river cruise fleet after Spirit of the Rhine and Spirit of the Danube. You can register your interest for our 20‍25 season now.

 

Thank you.

I wonder if this is the Amadeus Elegant chartered and renamed (like the chartered Spirit of the Douro, which was also announced as a new ship).

Not that it makes any difference to those who sail on her, it will still be Saga whether chartered or owned.

[JMMKUK]

Purpose built implies new IMO. Hope they have some bigger cabins though.

[twotravellersLondon]

On 2/9/2024 at 1:21 PM, tiggis said:

But the stock market doesn’t appear to be impressed by the spate of recent news. The share price has dropped around 20% over the past couple of weeks.

 

But the stock market is about SAGA... the whole company.... not just the tiny cruise sector... the underwriting arm is a major problem... SAGA have been trying to off-load it... it was a major mistake under previous ownership... the cruise sector is in pretty good shape. 

 

If you pick your comparison dates...SAGA shares are higher now than in early October 2023. And by comparison... look at the FT Share index over that last couple of weeks... not for the faint hearted! It's dropped.

 

 

[Spence55]

On 2/9/2024 at 1:21 PM, tiggis said:

But the stock market doesn’t appear to be impressed by the spate of recent news. The share price has dropped around 20% over the past couple of weeks.

I suspect the market scepticism is justified. The 52 -wk high was £1.91 nearly a year ago. The latest price being £1.13. Net debt stands at over £711m as opposed to £657m in Sept 23, dwarfing the market capitalisation of £161m. There has been some speculative investment from the middle east, but investors will have noted potential issues re bond repayments, with 2026 a big year in that respect. The insurance side is a huge problem, with a big drop in policies sold and profitability an ongoing issue. Any sale and leaseback of the ships will obviously solve the debt issue, but will mean higher costs. In all its a dog’s dinner of a company, and a dog of an investment.m

 

[Alchymist]

It is good to see Spence55 quoting some actual figures rather than puff pieces in magazines. We all love SAGA ships and crew, or I guess we wouldn't be spending our time scrutinising these boards, but we have to recognise that they are just a part of the business and its financial performance. It's when you look at it holistically and realise what a debt load the business has that you can see that unless something drastic is done to restructure it, then it will probably/possibly fail. This time last year the hope was that they could offload the heavily loss making insurance business, but they had to abandon that plan in the autumn. We should be reassured that the management is looking at other, equally radical options, although as SAGAnauts, some of us may naturally be worried about how it will affect our future holiday experience as well as the livelihoods of the crews. All power to the management for trying to find a solution - how much of it is their own making, who can tell?

[Windsurfboy]

They bought two new ships at exactly the wrong time, but no one could have predicted what was to come.

 

It all depends whether they borrowed money at the historic low interest rates with long-term bonds , good thinking. If they borrowed with say 5 year bonds Or shorter, getting  cheapest short term loans,  then the trouble is very much to come, and can blame management for that.  We love Saga ships and crew, but management could do better. Firstly not very efficient,  has some expensive ways of administration. Also a bit erratic in decision making, one minute panicking and handing out full refunds,  next minute denying any resposibility for breakdowns. Unlike the bigger lines don't have a senior  ex captain in head office to advise Captains give them someone to talk to.

 

If the ships are operating at high capacity,  it is a profitable business, so will be in demand. Given it's all balcony,  high space ratio , hence the prices they charge, will demand high level service. It's impossible to run ships of this design as cheap and cheerful. Cabins too expensive , would never get any repeat business. I'm not worying, either  Saga wil survive,  or established cruise company come to rescue,  or get money back from credit card. 

[twotravellersLondon]

1 hour ago, Alchymist said:

We should be reassured that the management is looking at other, equally radical options, although as SAGAnauts, some of us may naturally be worried about how it will affect our future holiday experience as well as the livelihoods of the crews. All power to the management for trying to find a solution - how much of it is their own making, who can tell?

 

Some of the comments about SAGA... especially from folk on various cyberspace portals who've never had a good word to say about the company in the past...   are a bit speculative, doomy and gloomy... even bearish.

 

But the facts are that for 2023/24 SAGA is on track to deliver significant growth for the full year with an underlying profit more than double that of the prior year. 

 

SAGA's Cruise and Travel businesses have had an outstanding year and as a result, these businesses will return to profitability, in line with expectations. Bookings for the new seasons in Cruise and Travel are robust, showing good overall progress. That will drive long-term sustainable growth, and allow SAGA to unlock value through optimising the core businesses

 

Some folk speak about debt in isolation... virtually all of the UK based cruise lines are in deep debt. (At the last report Fred  Olsen owed over £100 million.) However... Saga... will, as expected, repay a £150m bond due in May 2024!

 

The outlook for 2023/24 is that SAGA is expected is growth of between 10-15% with an Underlying Profit Before Tax more than double that of the prior year.

 

Far from the anonymous rumours spread around the far corners of the darkest recesses of cyberspace... SAGA is an upmarket cruise line successfully filling its ships in a very competitive market and attracting more and more passengers each years despite the raising prices.

 

SAGA's Ocean Cruise revenue growth is expected to be around 30% year-on-year, delivered through a load factor of 87% and per diem of £331, both significantly ahead of the 75% and £318 in the previous year. It's highly likely that SAGA will exceed its target of £40.0m Ocean Cruise Trading EBITDA (Excluding Overheads) per ship.

 

Given the ongoing momentum in Ocean Cruise, the business is now approaching optimum capacity. The SAGA Board are exploring opportunities to optimise the business and enhance long-term returns for shareholders.

 

Management? Well... that's significantly changed in recent years and things have certainly changed have certainly since 2020.

 

Some of that may sound a tad corporate and techno speak but... these are some of the key facts.