sitraveler Posted February 23 #26 Share Posted February 23 The inquiry is about waitlist not guarantee. Huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EJL2023 Posted February 23 #27 Share Posted February 23 4 minutes ago, sitraveler said: The inquiry is about waitlist not guarantee. Huge difference. Well it was the OP who actually then inquired about a Guarantee and how that also works. Not to mention a wait list can become a GTY and then a confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snaefell3 Posted February 23 #28 Share Posted February 23 5 hours ago, babysteps said: O guarantee risk seems lower "Risk" includes how bad an outcome is. A cancelled guarantee simply means you have to go find another voyage to spend your refund on -- not the worst of worlds.. The odds of a "so sorry" letter depends upon how hard O pushes overbooking, which probably means how revenue-hungry NCLH is. If I have a worry, it's that there's an MBA in the decision process that doesn't understand the Central Limit Theorem and that O shouldn't push overbooking to the extent NCL can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babysteps Posted February 23 #29 Share Posted February 23 40 minutes ago, Snaefell3 said: "Risk" includes how bad an outcome is. A cancelled guarantee simply means you have to go find another voyage to spend your refund on -- not the worst of worlds.. The odds of a "so sorry" letter depends upon how hard O pushes overbooking, which probably means how revenue-hungry NCLH is. If I have a worry, it's that there's an MBA in the decision process that doesn't understand the Central Limit Theorem and that O shouldn't push overbooking to the extent NCL can. I'm hoping that if some non-mathy (or overly mathy?) MBA changes O's guarantee policy, that we'll hear about it first here on CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snaefell3 Posted February 23 #30 Share Posted February 23 45 minutes ago, babysteps said: I'm hoping that if some non-mathy (or overly mathy?) MBA changes O's guarantee policy, that we'll hear about it first here on CC. What's presented to the MBA is "if you overbook by 'x', you'll have a 'p'% chance of no "so sorry" letters; if you overbook by 'y' then 'q'%; and if by 'z' then 'r'%. He then figures how much O (or NCLH?) values good will vs the associated extra revenue. Oh! And then Murphy's Law gets the last word. "Of course the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you – if you don't play, you can't win." — R A Heinlein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMHuntFerry Posted February 23 #31 Share Posted February 23 3 hours ago, Snaefell3 said: "Of course the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you – if you don't play, you can't win." — R A Heinlein I miss Heinlein...rereading one if his books at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MEFIowa Posted February 24 #32 Share Posted February 24 15 hours ago, AMHuntFerry said: I miss Heinlein...rereading one if his books at the moment. The Moon is a Harsh Mistress and Stormship Troopers will always be moving around. 😉 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrHemlock Posted February 24 #33 Share Posted February 24 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MEFIowa said: The Moon is a Harsh Mistress and Stormship Troopers will always be moving around. 😉 Starship Troopers. On the other hand, the nightly show performers aboard a T/A in November could be called "Stormship Troupers." Edited February 24 by DrHemlock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MEFIowa Posted February 24 #34 Share Posted February 24 13 minutes ago, DrHemlock said: ... the nightly show performers aboard a T/A in November could be called "Stormship Troupers." Maybe they should perform at Farnham's Freehold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMHuntFerry Posted February 24 #35 Share Posted February 24 5 hours ago, MEFIowa said: Maybe they should perform at Farnham's Freehold? That's what I just started re-reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lastdance Posted February 25 #36 Share Posted February 25 Well, since I haven’t taken my very first O cruise, maybe I’ll be moved up to the category above my PH1, or maybe I live in Dreamland, just this side of Completely Doubtful!😜 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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