Additional 150k ton newbuilds to be ordered for Carnival.

[dolphinsfan246]

2 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I would take that bet.  Totally cuts across the grain.  CCL reigns king in Carnival Corp.  Nothing is going to change that.  

Just remember this when the order comes 🤷‍♂️ I can’t change your mind. But the CCL brand is not part of this order. 

[jimbo5544]

Just now, dolphinsfan246 said:

Just remember this when the order comes 🤷‍♂️ I can’t change your mind. But the CCL brand is not part of this order. 

Show me the wording

[dolphinsfan246]

1 minute ago, jimbo5544 said:

Show me the wording

We can revisit when the official press release comes out. Strange as Shipping Italy is usually pretty accurate when it comes to Fincantieri rumors. They just got one little detail mixed up. 

[dolphinsfan246]

18 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

Is there anything pointing to P&O getting two ships? Only Aurora would be up for retirement, Arcadia would have another 5 years left. 
 

I also wouldn’t expect Costa to go anywhere at this point, unless something drastic happened. 

Yes their demand in the UK is very strong and they want to grow it.

 

Costa folding the same way as P&O Australia is still entirely on the table at this point. 

[tidecat]

 

Just now, dolphinsfan246 said:

Yes their demand in the UK is very strong and they want to grow it.

 

Costa folding the same way as P&O Australia is still entirely on the table at this point. 

We also don't know the timeframe on this order as well. Replacing Aurora (2000) is probably a foregone conclusion, but if you go out far enough, Arcadia (2005) may be in the table as well.

 

@dolphinsfan246 If Costa folded could it possibly be absorbed into AIDA? Both AIDA and Costa are worldwide brands in terms of service area although both are primarily in Europe. AIDA has more ships (11 to 9) although most of them are smaller than Costa's in terms of passenger capacity. Cultural differences between the two brands may be more of an issue, though, but it would still be an alternative to other American-based lines like Royal Caribbean and Norwegian.

[dolphinsfan246]

3 minutes ago, tidecat said:

 

We also don't know the timeframe on this order as well. Replacing Aurora (2000) is probably a foregone conclusion, but if you go out far enough, Arcadia (2005) may be in the table as well.

 

@dolphinsfan246 If Costa folded could it possibly be absorbed into AIDA? Both AIDA and Costa are worldwide brands in terms of service area although both are primarily in Europe. AIDA has more ships (11 to 9) although most of them are smaller than Costa's in terms of passenger capacity. Cultural differences between the two brands may be more of an issue, though, but it would still be an alternative to other American-based lines like Royal Caribbean and Norwegian.

Nothing set in stone. There is still a lot of decisions to be made on Costa’s future. It has also been brought up that Venezia or Firenze could go back in 2027. Carnival Fun Italian Style is not going over as well as John Heald wants you to believe. I only mentioned the Costa brand folding as the worst case scenario, but it is on the table. 

[DutchCruiseFan]

7 minutes ago, tidecat said:

@dolphinsfan246 If Costa folded could it possibly be absorbed into AIDA? Both AIDA and Costa are worldwide brands in terms of service area although both are primarily in Europe. AIDA has more ships (11 to 9) although most of them are smaller than Costa's in terms of passenger capacity. Cultural differences between the two brands may be more of an issue, though, but it would still be an alternative to other American-based lines like Royal Caribbean and Norwegian.

Despite it indeed being very questionable that Costa would fold, they would surely not integrate into AIDA, those differences are simply too big. I think there is barely any non-Germans that would book AIDA and the market would not be big enough for the entirety of Costa to integrate in their fleet.

 

I am sure they'd love their XL class ships tho..

 

But I think we can assume Costa is going nowhere.

 

If Carnival fun Italian style is indeed not performing well, I am curious what they'd do with the ships. The Asian market would be an option but surely the biggest chance is that they'd just transform them into full normal Carnival ships?

[CruiseAdict218]

21 minutes ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

Despite it indeed being very questionable that Costa would fold, they would surely not integrate into AIDA, those differences are simply too big. I think there is barely any non-Germans that would book AIDA and the market would not be big enough for the entirety of Costa to integrate in their fleet.

 

I am sure they'd love their XL class ships tho..

 

But I think we can assume Costa is going nowhere.

 

If Carnival fun Italian style is indeed not performing well, I am curious what they'd do with the ships. The Asian market would be an option but surely the biggest chance is that they'd just transform them into full normal Carnival ships?

I would think make them full time Carnival ships, China is struggling to fill ships in that area. Not sure how the rest of the Asia market is, one could replace Serena which serves that area. 
 

24 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

Nothing set in stone. There is still a lot of decisions to be made on Costa’s future. It has also been brought up that Venezia or Firenze could go back in 2027. Carnival Fun Italian Style is not going over as well as John Heald wants you to believe. I only mentioned the Costa brand folding as the worst case scenario, but it is on the table. 

I would think they would be returned if they get more new builds, that’s a good chunk of capacity to transfer back, plus undoing the Carnival additions. 

 

31 minutes ago, tidecat said:

 

We also don't know the timeframe on this order as well. Replacing Aurora (2000) is probably a foregone conclusion, but if you go out far enough, Arcadia (2005) may be in the table as well.

 

@dolphinsfan246 If Costa folded could it possibly be absorbed into AIDA? Both AIDA and Costa are worldwide brands in terms of service area although both are primarily in Europe. AIDA has more ships (11 to 9) although most of them are smaller than Costa's in terms of passenger capacity. Cultural differences between the two brands may be more of an issue, though, but it would still be an alternative to other American-based lines like Royal Caribbean and Norwegian.

Costa ships compliment Carnival better (excluding the two Vistas), keep some and maybe sell off some but their fleet is pretty young for the most part. 

[tidecat]

2 minutes ago, DutchCruiseFan said:

If Carnival fun Italian style is indeed not performing well, I am curious what they'd do with the ships. The Asian market would be an option but surely the biggest chance is that they'd just transform them into full normal Carnival ships?

The first option would be to evaluate those ships' homeports. The Mexican Riviera in particular is tough because of the limited itinerary options. Venezia may be better off with a longer season in Florida or even sailing year-round from Florida.

 

The next step would be to evaluate short cruises versus long cruises.

 

If a move is warranted, it would depend on how the rest of the fleet (across all brands) is performing. Unless if you have a hot market they can transition into, the solution would be to retire two older ships (probably Conquest-class) and move the ships there. Carnival could remove the Costa branding, do some refurbishments, and give the ships new names.

 

That said I question the claim about Carnival Fun Italian Style not performing well. Firenze fares are actually higher on a per-day basis than Panorama's and Radiance's for March 2025. The fares for a 4-day sailing in May 2025 on Venezia aren't much less per person than a 10-day sailing the same month. There are no direct comps out of New York, but even the 4-day sailing runs more than 4-day sailings on Glory out of Port Canaveral that month. Going into June 2025, it looks like the longer sailings on Venezia are less per-day than some 6-day to 8-day sailings out of Port Canaveral. Maybe the answer for Venezia is to offer more shorter sailings?

[787cruiser]

2 hours ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

I hate to throw a wrench in all the speculation, but don’t be surprised when this order comes out and it initially goes 4 (AIDA) + 2 (P&O) with 2 options to be executed later. The options are saved for Costa as they are still evaluating the future for this brand. 

the source has already quoted 2 for Aida, 2 for Costa and 2 for Carnival. I can’t see that changing to benefit Aida. That fleet is on the newer side and they are about to pour huge money into rehabbing 3 ships. The 2 ships for Aida are most likely expansion. Costa will most likely retire fortuna and then expand.

 

Of course the delivery’s can change, carnival corp has done that several times in the past but there’s no chance Aida will get the first 4 ships.

[dolphinsfan246]

8 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

the source has already quoted 2 for Aida, 2 for Costa and 2 for Carnival. I can’t see that changing to benefit Aida. That fleet is on the newer side and they are about to pour huge money into rehabbing 3 ships. The 2 ships for Aida are most likely expansion. Costa will most likely retire fortuna and then expand.

 

Of course the delivery’s can change, carnival corp has done that several times in the past but there’s no chance Aida will get the first 4 ships.

Hey believe whatever you want, I’ll believe the official press release. 

[dolphinsfan246]

12 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

the source has already quoted 2 for Aida, 2 for Costa and 2 for Carnival. I can’t see that changing to benefit Aida. That fleet is on the newer side and they are about to pour huge money into rehabbing 3 ships. The 2 ships for Aida are most likely expansion. Costa will most likely retire fortuna and then expand.

 

Of course the delivery’s can change, carnival corp has done that several times in the past but there’s no chance Aida will get the first 4 ships.

The exact same source said that the XXL order was going to be 4 ships at 208K tons, 2 for CCL, 2 for Costa. That turned out to be quite wrong. 

[787cruiser]

11 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

The exact same source said that the XXL order was going to be 4 ships at 208K tons, 2 for CCL, 2 for Costa. That turned out to be quite wrong. 

I’m not saying the source is going to be 100% accurate but it makes sense. 4 ships to Aida would not make sense.

[dolphinsfan246]

5 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

I’m not saying the source is going to be 100% accurate but it makes sense. 4 ships to Aida would not make sense.

AIDA is currently Carnival’s 3rd highest returning brand behind only CCL and Princess. They absolutely are going to pour money into that. 

[CruiseAdict218]

Even if they place the order for say 4 ships for AIDA, the order can always be amended, Jubilee was supposed to go to AIDA after all. 

[tidecat]

17 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

I’m not saying the source is going to be 100% accurate but it makes sense. 4 ships to Aida would not make sense.

Unless if Aida is parting with one or more of the Icarus-class ships. That would still represent a substantial increase in capacity. The Icarus-class ships would have value to Carnival's fleet as they are newer than the Spirit class.

[787cruiser]

16 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

AIDA is currently Carnival’s 3rd highest returning brand behind only CCL and Princess. They absolutely are going to pour money into that. 

They already are with the 3 renovations 

[DutchCruiseFan]

Where can we see that AIDA is the 3rd best performing brand? I thought the Corporation didn't give away info like that.

[dolphinsfan246]

18 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

They already are with the 3 renovations 

So you think 3 renovations to older ships is good enough to keep the German market?
 

TUI is significantly upping their game and Carnival is not about to watch them push AIDA out of the market. 4 of these ships are going to AIDA. They will be around 4,000 PAX at double occupancy. 
 

Obviously I’m just a stranger on the internet so I can’t convince you otherwise. However when the order comes, don’t be surprised. 

[nc762shooter]

On 8/9/2024 at 11:17 AM, DanJ said:

An Oasis size footprint with a Spirit height might add up to that tonnage, not sure how odd the ship might look though lol. Also not sure how that extra couple hundred feet of length affects the ship's ability to navigate those ports. Pretty tight turn in Jax under the bridge for instance, not sure if that makes it more difficult or not

They'll be the Teapot-class ships... short and stout. I'll see myself out now.😁

[jimbo5544]

3 hours ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

Yes their demand in the UK is very strong and they want to grow it.

 

Costa folding the same way as P&O Australia is still entirely on the table at this point. 

 Carnival will be number one at any cost 

[dolphinsfan246]

4 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

 Carnival will be number one at any cost 

You’re absolutely right about that, but they aren’t part of this particular order. 

[787cruiser]

17 minutes ago, dolphinsfan246 said:

You’re absolutely right about that, but they aren’t part of this particular order. 

Not sure what has you so convinced about this but it’s more likely Princess would take 2 before AIDA takes 4. 

[dolphinsfan246]

13 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

Not sure what has you so convinced about this but it’s more likely Princess would take 2 before AIDA takes 4. 

I have a lot of connections in the Fincantieri design team. But like I said, I can completely understand why you wouldn’t believe that. Just wait for the order.

 

I have seen the preliminary renderings, they are a very new and quirky design that only the AIDA ships can pull off, the P&O variants are a much more subdued version.  

[dolphinsfan246]

22 minutes ago, 787cruiser said:

Not sure what has you so convinced about this but it’s more likely Princess would take 2 before AIDA takes 4. 

Princess has options to execute for additional Sphere class sisters, they wouldn’t get a smaller version.