Hurricane Frances Path Has Changed....

[dbmiller1956]

Check it out, folks! Frances has changed her path (see post Hurricane Frances graphics) and seems to be heading North. For those of us in the state of SC that is not very good, but it looks like the ports might survive the worst of it.

 

Still keeping my fingers crossed and hope things are okay.

 

Deena

[PammyHound]

It's true! That's great news for Florida but as you said, bad for the Carolinas. We will keep hoping it turns further north.

[GoinCruisin]

I'm so glad that Fla will hopefully be spared... they certainly don't need any more devastation...

 

But now vivid memories of Fran and Floyd are starting to flashback... Frances is on the same track as Floyd and we don't need another like that one :( Let's all hope that this one just disappears... not likely, but we can hope....

[lmondrop]

Where exactly do you see this information? I was just on www.noaa.gov and it doesn't say anything about it turning north...its still headed west!

[GoinCruisin]

It has started to make a West Northwest turn... there were two track scenarios... based on the strength of the ridge... one had it going more towards Fla, the other up the east coast. For now, it looks like Fla will be spared the brunt, BUT that could change... for now though, it looks like Fla may be okay. This is from the 11AM NHC report:

 

FRANCES IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. DURING THE

THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING BETWEEN THE

WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIGDE.

THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES WITH THE DIFFERENT

MODELS. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE FARTHER WEST OR CLOSER TO THE U.S. COAST THAN OTHERS. OVERALL...THE TREND OF THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS TO TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER AND NONE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF BRING THE HURRICANE TO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE KEYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT IS PRODUCED BY THE GFS WHICH BARELY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...IT IS NORMAL FOR MODELS TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST MORE THE RIGHT...IF NECESSARY.

[JerseyJim2]

Here is the predicted Frances track from the National Hurricane Center:

 

 

Jim

[Cruisegirl6]

Too early to tell. Remember they can wobble anytime changing its course as it did with Charlie, Florida certainly not free from it at all.

[madelinerose]

Praying that the Outer Banks (NC) aren't hit again. We rent an oceanfront house in Duck the first week in October every year. Since Duck is further north, there were torn screens on the side porch and the steps going down to the beach were demolished, but damage in Duck was minimal from Isabel last year.

 

We did, however, see oceanfront houses in Kitty Hawk and Kill Devil Hills that were literally half in the ocean leaning on their sides. Very sad.

 

Now, Isabel and Maryland was a totally different ball of wax. Major, major damage, especially in Baltimore. Totally unexpected.

 

Let's pray AND keep our fingers crossed.

[Cruising89143]

I've read that the Euro models have the storm hitting south Florida and American models have it hitting the Carolinas, so the NHC has split the difference so to speak. I understand that the Euro models had not been updated when the last change came out but we shall see at 5:00 if it changes again once the Euro models are updated. I like seeing that little turn but now if she would only do a quick turn to the north and then northeast that would be great.:)

[hill6]

I spoke to my dad who lives in West Palm Beach and he said their noon forecast had it hitting more up towards Jacksonville than towards them. I am worried here in case it rides the coast and comes up here. We will likely see rain from it and we are soaked from our wet summer.

[GoinCruisin]

I just hope the stupid thing goes away! Florida definitely does not need it... the Carolina's don't need another big one like the ones we have had over the years... and we certainly don't need more rain!!!! 3 hurricanes and one tropical storm in a month... I am going through too many flippers and taking the Ark into the office everyday as it is! I'd say we all do the Hurricane dance and pray this one into oblivion!!!!!!!!!! These things are so unpredictible... that is the scary part...

[Cruising89143]

I was just watching the Weather Channel and now they are showing the center of the strike cone that one watches to be between Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. The problem with trying to forecast this thing is the speed that she is traveling. She has sped up from what they orginally thought and that keeps changing her landfall targets. They are saying that by tomorrow night that they should have a better grip on where she is going but my bets are on south Florida.

[GoinCruisin]

i know what you mean, i don't think I have seen a hurricane in years that had such a large possible strike zone, or one that has changed almost hourly... makes it hard to predict.... this one doesn't look nice at all...

[FlaParrotHead]

Being in Tampa and having watched and waited for Charlie (plus others over the years) - until it hits and moves on, you should never let your gaurd down. Even then, we have had them hit the East coast, come over to the Gulf - heard West toward Texas or Mexico only to turn around and hit a second time. . . Just hoping this one will head north sooner rather than later so maybe some cooler water will take it down a notch or two. ANYTHING in its path (strong cat4+ - for now) will be hard hit.

[Cruisegirl6]

Heard they are flying another plane right into it tomorrow thurs at 1:30pm then they will have a better idea of the projected path. Right now I say anywhere between Vero Beach and the borderline of Florida/Georgia, but those things are known to wobble to the south like Andrew and Charlie did, so I am as ready for Frances as I can get. If anybody lives along the large projected path prepare better safe than sorry!!

[APagano]

Being in Tampa and having watched and waited for Charlie (plus others over the years) - until it hits and moves on, you should never let your gaurd down.

Exactly. Little wobbles here and there happen all the time, and the computer models also have a way of shifting tracks for any number of reasons. I was a former meteorology major and have a buddy who tracks these storms for a living. He suspects that the American model that wants to pull the storm northward is out to lunch and that South Florida should beware.

 

Remember that while the media was hyping up the Tampa landfall for Charlie, the area that actually got hit hard was still well within the Hurricane Warning zone. If you live in the large cone of potential landfall you should stay informed and not get overly excited about minor hiccups in the hour-by-hour storm track.

[Cruzin' Daddy]

I have just been through Hurricane Charley, while vacationing at Disney World, and I sure hope no one else has to go through all that devastation!!!

[ElvisC]

Here is the 11:00 Tues projection. They are tracking the storm back south again.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/010253W5.gif

[musicitul]

Oh Please make it hit more north, or better yet not at all... We are to fly into Ft. Lauderdale on Sun 10 am and leave on the paradise for a 15 day cruise!! Just let me out!!!!!! ( how selfish is that compared to all the devestation this storm has the possibility and probability of wrecking)

 

Sarah

[IBEEMOM]

I sure hope the storm turns to the eaast. I have two sons living in Fla and from the looks of it they both will get some wind and rain. It even looks like we may have some effect here in north Georgia. These things are so wide spread that there is so much damage. I grew up in Fla and know what they can do. Then there is the loss of power to so many people. Lets all say a prayer that it will turn.

[brn2crz]

Also remember that this storm is a lot larger in diameter than Charley,so it will effect a larger area,regardless of where it makes landfall.

Now...who said Texas...shhhhhh don't tell her we are here...:eek:

[chuleta]

I have been watching ghe NHC for 3 days and they have been predicting this storm to turn to the NW, so far it has just been moving west! I hope thier prediction is right but these storms shift a lot and can be very unpredictable.

[captaincrash]

Well folks....

 

As of TUESDAY 11PM EST the highest probability of landfall for the center point of Frances is 46% for Fort Pierce, FL. The time and place of landfall can vary somewhat as the NOA discussion speak of an expected slowing of movement as it approaches land - and when it slows it can wander in varying directions more! However, at a slower pace. The public news i've read after filtering through google had suggested Jacksonville as the centeroid for landfall... but my money is currently on Ft. Pierce. Several sources have cited the size and intensity of this hurricane are on the large side - so landfall center is not implying anyone distant is going to escape the effect.

 

AT any rate, I have the misfortune of sailing on the Disney Magic out of Port Carnaveral on Saturday. More or less, this is precisely when Frances is making landfall - and my port is exactly in the middle between Jacksonville and Fort Pierce. DCL has already contacted me to prepare for a possible reassignment of port to something in south FLorida like FOrt Lauderdale. That's 212 miles away! Plus they're suggesting we'll reverse our port order.

 

Oh well... that's how it goes.

 

Here's a link to the most recent National hurricane center track map:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/290853W5.gif

[PINEVIEW01]

I wish Carnival would contact us! Biting my nails waithing for Sunday.