Hurrican Ivan

[Lois R]

and that is probably what is going to happen....I don't think she will be able to say ahead of the storm in this particular case....my boss and I were looking at the models on the national hurricane center site...he said no way on Saturday would she be able to get ahead of IVAN...that the ship would have to stay behind.....to get home safely.

[DFD1]

Lois; I would expect your cruise will sail without any problems. However, you might want to pack for a couple of extra days in case things are a mess when you try to return.

 

Good Luck to you. Once you depart, the news of Ivan will not come so fast because of the limited access to news and weather channels. You'll be in good hands on the Z, so try and relax as best you can.

[Lois R]

Boy, this is one cruise we will remember.....I didn't think about being delayed coming back:eek: ....I was figuring (sadly):( he would probably hit while we are at sea and by the following Sat~Sept 18th we would be able to get into the port without a problem.

 

But maybe you are right...oh Gosh...maybe I should even put a pair of sweats in the suitcase;)

[LoveLifeAtSea]

Lois ... Vacations AND "planning for vacations" are supposed to be relaxing and carefree. Bless your heart, at this stage it seems as though it's all but that.

I truly hope that you can manage to get on the ship without an incident, relax and forget about all this for a while, have the time of your life and then return safe and sound to your home without any problems.

You have been upbeat and supportive of so many others on this board .... you deserve for this cruise to be perfect!

[Lois R]

thanks....for those kind words:) we are all different people and to be honest I am not even worried about actually being in the Caribbean.....I just keep wondering if the ship will really sail:eek: ......I know unless something happens TOMORROW my flight will leave as scheduled.....and I guess once I get to FLL I will just have to wait and see and hope Saturday comes and we can board the ship....I do wish I could feel more excited:confused: I felt more excited typing that "THANK YOU" Thread than I do today.......geeezzz.....

[Stevesan]

Although there is one set of data, there are a number of different models for forecasting a hurricane. Additionally, part of the model is the steering factors (high pressure, cold fronts, etc.). The effect that these steering factors have on a hurricane is of course based on the prediction of the location, strength, speed of these fronts, high pressure, low pressure zones. There are a number of different models for predicting these items. So the variability of predictions in these steering factors will vary the prediction of even a single hurricane model and multiplies the possibilities of the various hurricane prediction models.

 

For an example of some of these factors check out:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/090853.shtml?

 

It's a discussion of hurricane Ivan and discusses the track based on different models of a low pressure front.

I absolutely agree that computer models can calculate divergent tracks. I spent three years in the USAF Hurricane Hunter squadron and am familiar with forecasting techniques. However, all these models are working with the same data. Only individual computer programs could account for differences. I just wonder why anyone would even think their model is more accurate than NOOAs!

Every TV weather forecaster poses as an 'expert' meteoroligist to pump up station ratings. I strongly suspect the differing models are interpreted with the same motive in mind.

More than forty-eight hours out is extremely uncertain. That's exactly why NOOA's projections are balloon shaped. Your local forecaster drums up some excitement by biasing that balloon. They all have delusions of being another Dan Rather.

[jhannah]

And don't forget some meclizine/Bonine!

[Host Walt]

PLEASE NOTE -

 

There were two threads on IVAN that have now been merged into this one thread.

 

Keep your fingers crossed and wish the best for all of the folks living and visiting in the Caribbean Islands.

[Cracker Ken]

The 11PM advisory from the NHC has Ivan at 155 MPH, approaching Jamaica. God help those folks.

 

Something tells me that Jamaica will be off the list for cruise itineraries for a while.

 

I live 30 miles E of Tampa, so we have plenty to worry about over the next few days.

 

Ken

[HeatherInFlorida]

We're very busy pushing that thing into the Gulf. All the computer model tracks from the (a/o 11 am Sat.) now have it off the coast of Tampa, so we'll keep working on it. Nobody in Florida deserves yet another hit.

[Host Walt]

I have "unstuck" both hurricane threads but they are both available for continued discussion.